UA-33754892-1 Archives for 31 March 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Masters

The Masters - In running after round 3

To Win

0.25 units Tony Finau @ 15/2 (-0.25)


The Masters - In running after round 2

To Win

0.25 units Jason Day @ 11/1 (-0.25)


The Masters - In running after round 1

To Win

0.25 units Dustin Johnson @ 6/1 (-0.25)




The Masters


Normally I like to open up The Masters piece with a barrage of cliches referencing the best week in golf, the start of the new golf season being upon us, azaleas, butler cabin, amen corner, green jackets, fast greens etc but this year I find myself at the start of Masters week feeling somewhat flat.

There is no Tiger comeback from a long break, no player in exceptional form who can only be beaten by themselves, no old legend with a realistic chance of making a run at the youngsters and a golf course that eliminates too many of the players in, what is, a tiny field.

So yes, I am excited that Augusta and a few of the world's best will be on the telly for a few hours, but is there a storyline that has captured me going in? Unfortunately, no. Add to this I am not betting or tipping an outright winner pre-event and I think we found the reason why I feel flat, I have nobody to cheer for!

This is a well established market and therefore has very few mistakes in it. I have a small position on Casey at 50/1 from a few months ago that looks a little better now and a small position on Leishman at the same price that looks a little worse.

Rory's price looks like the only price that really is wrong. Would I like to see Rory complete the Grand Slam? Yes, I guess so. But I have never really taken to Rory, I can't tell you why, I can't put my finger on it, but I have never been a huge fan and believe he is still overrated as a player. He is 7/1 favourite which is just a dreadful, dreadful price. I would be 16/1 and even then not a backer. 7/1 in a Major is getting into 'zero question marks territory'. He certainly isn't there. I am not sure his wedges, short game or putting are 100% up to it and although he has a good Masters record, he has never won. 7/1 would suggest he had and suggest he has won a lot recently, he hasn't.

In fact this is a really hard week for him, he really wants that Grand Slam but he can't allow himself to really want it or he will get in his own way, but pretend too much that it doesn't matter and one can become slack and overly carefree. It is a really hard thing to balance. It is much easier if you are someone like Spieth, who will enter the week with zero expectations and will just be grinding and grinding and grinding to try and get something out the week and by doing this he may wake up on Sunday morning with a chance to win and almost accidentally fall over the line without ever having truly expected it. I am happy to lay 7/1 about Rory, and will.

In my view Dustin Johnson should be favourite. His bad week's are down to a cold putter and he will finish top 10, a really bad week he will lose interest and finish in the top 20, and when on nobody can keep up with him. I would say his best is better than anyone else's at the moment. He appears oblivious and fearless. He has finished in the top 10 in his last 3 Masters and is now one year older than when Mickelson won his first. It could be his time. I would be 8/1 Dustin and 10/1 available. Tempting, but just not enough in it to warrant a bet.

When people talk about The Masters and what it takes to win you often hear the line "You have to be a great putter to win at Augusta." This probably used to hold some weight when the course was at a length that meant all could compete, but they seem to think the only way to make Augusta harder is to add length to it. They made an attempt with light rough, but in reality this is just less cut fairway rather than rough and if anything has only served to make the course play wider. The committee added another 40 yards for this years renewal. This time by building a new tee on the 5th where Berckman's Road used to be, making it a brutal 495 yard uphill par 4 with two new massive fairway bunkers. Langer, Olazabal, Mize and Woosnam are sure to enjoy this new change! Augusta National is now stretched out to 7475 yards and plays every inch with the fairways cut towards the tee so you land into the grain thus minimising roll. Add to this the wet weather that has already fallen, and is set to full sporadically throughout the week, and one can see what an advantage length can be.

So a perceived poor putter can contend, and believe me, anyone who has earned their spot at Augusta is not a poor putter. Anyone in the world's top 100 can't be a poor putter. But look back at strong Augusta players. I would never put Westwood near the top of my 'best putters list' and he had many good Masters weeks. Bubba isn't a good putter but has two green jackets. Garcia and Rose have never held the putter as a strength. Cabrera and Scott have also won here with putting being their least favourite part of the game.

Scott is interesting, a very good ball striker with a robotic short game and often twitchy putter. Strangely, Scott, in 2004, lead the Tour in putting using a conventional putter and grip. Always surprised he doesn't go back to that. But what players like Scott, Garcia, Rose, Westy etc show us is The Augusta test is eased if one can move it from the tee, but that in essence it is a second shot golf course. These guys, and guys that do well often at Augusta are phenomenal iron players. Just to finish off the putting thing, players at The Masters make 2% more putts from 6 foot than at a regular event, maybe short putting is easier? The greens are pure and in essence, it's pretty much a half field event so they get less wear.

Iron play is the key, see Chris DiMarco who chased Woods and lapped the field when finishing 2nd. He is a short hitter but great iron player. Tim Clark finished 2nd here in 2006. He hits it short, low, can't chip and used a broom handle putter. All things you will hear means he probably shouldn't bother turning up. Tim Clark is an accurate iron player, this is how he did it.

So we want a strong iron player who ideally hits it a long way so can take advantage of the par 5s. A good short game helps as all players go through flat spots over 72 holes and there is a breeze forecast throughout the week. Saving shots around the green will keep them going, continue momentum and keep them in contention. But if it were all short game and putting, where is Luke Donald's green jacket?

Looking at the win market I like six players. I think Dustin is the most likely winner. 10th in strokes gained approach bodes well. I would be 8/1 Dustin.

I think there is some value in Justin Thomas too, I would be 16/1 and 20/1 available. He finished 17th last year and has an upward trajectory as he logs vital Augusta experience. He ranks 5th in strokes gained approach and 1st in par 5 scoring and par breakers. I think he will have a big week.

I also think Fleetwood is coming of age. This will be his third start at Augusta so he is coming to that, 'he can now win at Augusta' timeframe. He flushes his irons and brings it week in week out. His distance control is as good as anyones and he missed the cut in his first Masters but finished 17th last year. He is happy mixing it with the big boys now.

At bigger prices I think Webb Simpson is big at 100/1, I would be 50/1. Webb doesn't have the best Augusta form but is a strong iron player and carries the advantage of being a right to left hitter. The armlock claw putting method has rejuvenated his career and enabled him to compete at the highest level again, see Players Championship last year.

Gary Woodland hits it huge, is a good iron player, is still robotic and lacks imagination around the green but is an improved putter. His Augusta form reads as poorly as his recent form, but he played well at the start of the season and could perhaps, maybe, potentially, optimistically get involved. I think in fantasy golf they would refer to this as a wild card. One there isn't a great argument for, but is somewhat of a gut shot!

Finally, Oosthuizen has appeal despite not really being value. 40/1 is his price, I would be 55/1, but the worm appears to have turned with him. He is putting beautifully which makes a world of difference to the sweet swinging South African who, one feels, deserves a green jacket. I also like the link to the Valspar. Spieth won there in 2015 and won The Masters. Reed finished 2nd there in 2018 and won The Masters. (Dubai also has strong links, Willett won in 2016 and won Augusta as did Garcia in 2017. Dechambeau?) But Louis is trending, if his back holds up in the rain he should go close.

So what bets to have. Well, in the top 5 market I like two, Simpson @ 20/1 and Fleetwood @ 6/1. Simpson's form both here and elsewhere makes this a less realistic target and I will keep him in the top 20 market only, but I will take Fleetwood. In his last two stroke play starts he has finished 3rd and 5th. 6/1 looks worth a pop.

In the top 10 market I shortlisted the value plays as Fleetwood @ 5/2, Woodland @ 7/1, Simpson @ 17/2, Bradley @ 14/1, Grillo @ 20/1, Harding @ 33/1 and Imahara @ 50/1. Again, Fleetwood is the only one I want to back at this stage.

To finish top 20, keep in mind there is only 87 players of which 10 or so can't compete, I like Cantlay @ 9/4, Simpson @ 3/1, Fitzpatrick @ 7/2, Bello @ 7/2, CH3 @ 4/1, Bradley @ 9/2, Noren @ 11/2, Grillo @ 13/2, Olesen @ 9/2, Na @ 13/2, Harding @ 9/1, Langer @ 14/1 and Imahara @ 16/1.

I'll take Simpson @ 3/1 despite Augusta form of 44-mc-mc-28-29-mc-20 and recent of 20-39-36-16-mc. He is a good player and isn't far away.

Fitzpatrick is playing nicely this season. 4th in Singapore in a decent field and 2nd at Bay Hill the highlights. Form of 7-32-38 is not discouraging for this bet but his low ball flight is. He will have to chip and putt his nuts off this week to keep up with the pace, but he can. 7/2 is fair.

Rafa Cabrera Bello is a mega consistent globe trotter. He will feel very comfortable competing in The States, at a Major, alongside whoever and hold his own. 17-mc-38 at Augusta, and 11-mc-22-25-19-3-mc-30 recent. I am ok taking three and a half to one about a top 20 finish.

Charles Howell has played once here in the last 10 years and finished 19th in 2012. He was born in Augusta. Recent form of 34-20-6-14-15-35 gives him a good shot of a top 20 finish here in a weaker, smaller field than most weeks.

Keegan Bradley is worth a shot in the top 20 market too. He played nicely at Sawgrass and ranks 5th in strokes gained approach. If he can hold himself and his putting together he could get in contention.

I think we put a line through Noren, Grillo, Langer and Imahara. Although their is value in their prices, it seems the reason for the value is obvious. They don't have the form at Augusta or recently to suggest they are capable of finishing in the top 20. Olesen, however, can. He has two Augusta starts and finished 6th in 2013 and 44th in 2014. His recent form is not up too much but he is a fair price.

Kevin Na is a sneaky good ball striker and finished 12th in The Masters in 2012 and 2015. He has been injured a lot of this year and looked backed to where he needs to be form wise and fitness wise when finishing tied 8th in the matchplay. 13/2 is a fair price.

9/1 Justin Harding to finish in the top 20 most weeks would be a no brainer. At Augusta, on debut, it is not so obvious. In fact it is a big ask. But he is a strong player who likes to hit a draw. He will have a good South African posse to advise and guide him. He is having a big year and owes us nothing so lets hope the confidence continues to run through his veins and he finds another big week.

Elsewhere, in the 72 hole matches, I am going to take Fleetwood to beat Molinari @ 11/10, Dustin to beat Rory @ 6/5 and Woods to beat Spieth @ 8/11.

I know I haven't given a view or opinion on a number of the big players. The Roses, the Woods, the Koepkas etc but I don't see any value in their prices so there's not much point studying them to death.

But, what I will do, as we can get 10 places each way with many major firms and at least 7 places with most, let's treat ourselves, lose our discipline a little and back the guys to win. It is Masters week after all, we are nicely in profit this year and we only live once!

The Masters

To Win (Only because it is the Masters, we are in profit and the generous each way terms offered, or I would leave the win market alone. Note we lose the best prices with the bigger each way terms)

1.5 units each way Dustin Johnson @ 10/1 (1/5 1-10 Betfair Sportsbook) (+1.5)
0.5 units each way Webb Simpson @ 80/1 (1/5 1-10 Betfair Sportsbook) (+7.5)
0.25 units each way Gary Woodland @ 66/1 (1/5 1-10 Skybet) (-0.5)
1 unit each way Justin Thomas @ 16/1 (1/5 1-10 Betfair Sportsbook) (-2)
1 unit each way Tommy Fleetwood @ 22/1 (1/5 1-10 Betfair Sportsbook) (-2)

4.5 units LAY Rory McIlroy @ 8/1 (Betfair Exchange) (+0.56)



Top 5

0.75 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 6/1 (-0.75)


Top 10

1 unit Tommy Fleetwood @ 5/2 (-1)

Top 20

2 units Webb Simpson @ 3/1 (+6)
1.25 units Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 7/2 (-1.25)
0.5 units Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 7/2 (-0.5)
1 unit Charles Howell III @ 4/1 (-1)
1 unit Thorbjørn Olesen @ 9/2 (-1)
0.75 units Kevin Na @ 13/2 (-0.75)
2 units Justin Harding @ 9/1 (+18)
1.25 units Keegan Bradley @ 9/2 (-1.25)

First Round Leader

no bet


72 Hole Match Bet (Betfair Sportsbook, tie no bet)

1 unit Tommy Fleetwood to bt Molinari @ 11/10 (-1)
1.5 units Dustin Johnson to bt Rory @ 6/5 (+1.8)
1.25 units Tiger Woods to bt Jordan Spieth @ 8/11 (+0.91)





This week's P&L = +22.52
This week’s investment = 29 units


This week's Outright P&L = +21.56 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 23.25 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +0.96
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 5.75 units



2019 Total P&L = +89.88 units

2019 Total Investment = 276.75 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +79.05 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 229.5 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +10.83 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 92.5 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.

Comments

Texas Open

Texas Open - In Running after round 3.

2 units Si Woo Kim @ 6/4

Texas Open - In Running after round 2.

0.75 units Rickie Fowler @ 5/1

Texas Open


So here we are, the last tournament before The Masters. Ideally one would like a small interest this week and spend the time preparing for next, however, this unbalanced field offers some good opportunities.

One has to be concerned that some players are in the same boat, they are thinking of next week and working on things this week. But the course looks a good separator and it really is a strange line up; plenty of non PGA Tour members, a number of web.com players and some has-beens.

The winners of this event and the guys that have done well are quite different too. Some you would say are great putters and not much else, others you would say driving is their strength. However, if you can find some strong drivers who can putt one shouldn't go too far wrong.

7435 yards is the length of TPC San Antonio with the wind and slippery fast greens being its main defence. It is exposed and often windy. On paper ball strikers should thrive but players like Ben Curtis and Jimmy Walker have won here, so putters can shine too.

I am going to look for quality ball strikers who thrive in the wind.

Rickie Fowler is a worthy favourite and offers good value at 11/1 in a weak field. He is on debut here, won 9 weeks ago, 2nd 5 weeks ago and comes into this primed for next week after two weeks off. He is fresher than his market rivals having not played the matchplay last week. We know he is a strong driver of the ball, a great putter and a very good wind player. He will take all the beating this week.

I like Tony Finau too. 3rd here in 2017 but no top 10s is his lat 13 weeks is a concern. This is a weaker field so a chance, but I will only be betting him in the top 20 market this week.

Justin Harding is so underrated, as he proved once again last week winning two of his three matches, only losing to Rory in a decent match. His last 7 stroke play finishes read 8-11-mc-mc-1-2. He is a strong wind player and this will play firm and fast, how he likes it. After all he won in Qatar. He is 48th in the world and 80/1. Fill your boots.

In the place markets I am going with Luiten, An, Frittelli and Gay.

Luiten looks to be back and better than ever after time off with injury. He is on debut here but form of 3-mc-6-10-12 before 4 weeks off makes him a player here. Conditions suit and he can have a big week.

An is a ball striker of note, his putting is a real concern as he pretty much has the yips, but if it really blows he will enjoy the challenge and his ball striking should come into its own. His putting has held him back in recent weeks but his form is steady and he should be able to crack the top 20 here even with a cold putter.

Another South African, Dylan Frittelli, is also an exceptional wind player. He came 20th here last year and posted an 18th last week. He can get in the top 20 again this week.

Finally Brian Gay is worth taking in the top 20 market. The veteran is still incredibly straight, although short, from the tee, and he can really putt. He has form in San Antonio, 2 top 10s in 7 starts, he also has 2 top 20s in his last 9 starts this season.


To Win

0.5 units Rickie Fowler @ 11/1
0.25 units Justin Harding @ 80/1


Top 5

1.25 units Rickie Fowler @ 3/1
0.75 units Joost Luiten @ 12/1
1.25 units Justin Harding @ 20/1


Top 10

1.5 units Rickie Fowler @ 6/4
1.5 units Joost Luiten @ 11/2
2.25 units Justin Harding @ 10/1

Top 20

3 units Tony Finau @ 10/11
1.25 units Byeong Hun An @ 15/8
2.75 units Joost Luiten @ 5/2
3.75 units Justin Harding @ 5/1
0.75 units Brian Gay @ 11/2
0.75 units Dylan Frittelli @ 10/3

First Round Leader

0.25 units Chip McDaniel @ 175/1


72 Hole Match Bet (Betfair Sportsbook, tie no bet)

1.5 units Byeong Hun An to bt Ancer @ 10/11




This week's P&L = 
This week’s investment = 23.25 units


This week's Outright P&L =
This weeks's Outright Investment = 21.5 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L =
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 1.75 units



2019 Total P&L = +85.41 units

2019 Total Investment = 221.75 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +73.9 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 184.75 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +11.51 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 82.25 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.

Comments