UA-33754892-1 Archives for 31 March 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Valero Texas Open

Last week we lost it all again. It is a tough thing to back players at big prices and get them at the right time. One has to be patient. Three weeks ago we saw Kevin Streelman win after supporting him on other weeks. Last week we saw Billy Horschel place at a nice price which we missed out on, after supporting him on other weeks. This is the unfortunate part of finding value in decent prices, but when it clicks it pays. Week in week out our players are going well at big prices so we know the process is correct but sometimes you need that little bit of luck too.

This week at the Valero Texas Open I like a few players but there is not huge value about the guys I like. The TPC at San Antonio hosts and is a renowned tough test of golf. However, there have been a number of changes that have made it easier than previous years. Some greens have been flattened out, a few fairways widened but most noticeably the rough is cut at 2 inches rather than 3. The course ranks as one of the hardest to find the fairways and greens. So a bit of leniency will be welcomed by the players. Adam Scott, Brendan Steele and Ben Curtis have won at this venue which does not give too many clues. Freddy Jacobson has strong course record posting a 2nd, a 5th and an 18th in his 3 starts. It does not seem to favour a particular type of player. Ben Curtis won the greens in regulation stat last year on route to his win, Scott is a notorious greens in regulation finder but Brendan Steele, who has a win and a 4th here the last two years does not really excel in any area, much like Curtis. But I guess this does not mean we have to try and find a guy who does nothing well!

My first pick this week is Jordan Spieth. He is in his home State again and has great stats. He never really got going last week but a front 9 of 31 (-5) on the last day shows he is not far away. 40/1 is not huge but with the Texas wind set to blow again and no rain forecast he should enjoy the conditions.

Second up is Scott Brown. He missed the cut last week in Houston but has had a tidy year. He lost his card last year but finished 30th at Pebble, won in Puerto Rico, 27th at the Tampa Bay Champs, 13th at Bay Hill before last week’s MC. In two starts on the he has a 3rd and a 7th. He appears to have found something this year. Last year he missed 16 cuts in 24 starts but with stats of 4th in total driving, 13th in ball striking, 20th in scrambling and 11th in scoring, all achieved on relatively tough courses, one can understand why the results have come. At 100/1 this week he is worth a play.

Jimmy Walker lives in San Antonio. This is an obvious advantage but hasn’t proven overly fruitful in the last two Texas Opens. He has two missed cuts and has not broken 74 in those four rounds. But, he did finish 3rd in 2010 so he can do it here. He has made 9 cuts in 9 starts this season with three top 10s. A 4th at Torrey Pines, 3rd at Pebble and 8th at Bay Hill shows he likes a tough test and only a third round 78 last week stopped him from having another big week. He hits it long and makes a lot of birdies. 40/1 is not huge, but worth a go.

Cameron Tringale at 33/1 is not something you would normally look at twice but it actually makes a bit of sense here. He has three made cuts in three starts at TPC San Antonio including two top 10’s. 5th in 2011 and 8th last year. He finished 3rd at Tampa Bay, 27th at Bay Hill and 16th last week. He is a solid player who ranks 18th in greens in regulation but more interestingly lead the field in greens hit last week and ranked 8th in scrambling. A man in form with a good course record makes 33/1 look ok.

My final bet is on Brad Fritsch to be the first round leader. The Canadian is a big hitter ranking 16th on Tour. He was going nicely at Bay Hill a couple of weeks ago before closing with a painful 78. His first round scores in 10 events are 67,69,69,72,69,68, 67,71,68,73. This ranks him 18th in first round scoring but at 200/1 he is worth backing to lead after day 1.

The Masters

1 pt each way Jordan Spieth @ 40/1 (-2pts)
0.5 pts each way Scott Brown @ 100/1 (-1pt)
1.5 pts each way Jimmy Walker @ 40/1 (-3pts)
1.5 pts each way Cameron Tringale @ 33/1 (-3pts)

Valero Texas Open - Specials

0.5 pts each way Brad Fritsch @ 200/1 to be first round leader. (-1pt)

2013 running total = -65.75 pts. This week’s investment 10 points. This weeks P&L = -10pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.