UA-33754892-1 Archives for 31 December 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Sentry TOC - Outright (after round 1)

38.00 points Leishman @ 5/1 (-38)

Player
Imp %
BF
Books
My Odds
My %
Diff
Marc Leishman
17%
6.2
6
4
23%
7%
Rickie Fowler
18%
6
5.5
5.0
20%
2%
Dustin Johnson
18%
6.2
5.5
6.7
15%
-3%
Hideki Matsuyama
9%
12.5
11
10
10%
1%
Brian Harman
8%
16
13
17
6%
-2%
Jon Rahm
7%
21
15
17
6%
-1%
Jhonattan Vegas
4%
30
23
20
5%
1%
Justin Thomas
9%
12
11
20
5%
-4%
Kevin Kisner
4%
32
26
29
3%
0%
Patrick Cantlay
5%
22
21
33
3%
-2%
Brendan Steele
2%
85
51
36
3%
1%
Jason Dufner
1%
130
67
41
2%
1%
Pat Perez
2%
85
51
50
2%
0%
Kyle Stanley
2%
55
51
57
2%
0%
SiWoo Kim
3%
44
34
61
2%
-1%
Jordan Spieth
3%
44
29
65
2%
-2%
Billy Horschel
1%
100
67
90
1%
0%
Xander Schauffele
2%
100
51
114
1%
-1%
Hudson Swafford
1%

151
163
1%
0%
Adam Hadwin
0%

251
177
1%
0%
Ryan Armour
1%

151
224
0%
0%
Daniel Berger
1%
160
67
239
0%
-1%
Russell Henley
1%

151
263
0%
0%
Kevin Chappell
0%

201
266
0%
0%
Wesley Bryan
0%

401
509
0%
0%
Patton Kizzire
1%

101
546
0%
-1%
Cameron Smith


0
758
0%
#VALUE!
Bryson Dechambeau
0%

201
789
0%
0%
Brooks Koepka


0
1399
0%
#VALUE!
Austin Cook


0
2513
0%
#VALUE!
Chris Stroud
0%

301
2750
0%
0%
D.A. Points


0
6726
0%
#VALUE!
Jonas Blixt


0
107610
0%
#VALUE!




Happy New Year to you all.

A new year, new opportunities and some changes. Using your feedback from last year the two main items that came up where more selective picks (less bets) and an easier to follow, clearer staking plan. I have used your feedback to deliver a new, easier to follow, more aggressive staking plan and put some new bits in place to make sure we only back players whom fulfil certain criteria. Hopefully we will see a better return of winners as well as a better return on investment. It may be more volatile, the bets may average shorter prices overall and individual stakes will be higher, but back testing over the last 8 years has shown this set up to be much more profitable in winning years (4/8) and the losing years only marginally more costly. The overall P&L was just over 700 points, against 432 points with the old system. The new staking plan is explained in more detail at the bottom of this page. We shall see!

Anyway, on to this week. I like this event but there is not a great deal to get excited about in the outright market. Thomas looks overrated but the rest look about right. At the top of the market there is a bit of value in Fowler, Leishman and Matsuyama. Further down Steele, Dufner, Hadwin and Vegas offer themselves for consideration. There is not really enough to warrant backing any of them and we may be better off sticking to a couple of tournament match bets instead. If my arm were twisted I would take Fowler to win at 7/1 and Dufner each way at 90/1.

Player
Imp %
BF
Books
My Odds
My %
Diff
Jordan Spieth
15%
6.8
6.5
6.4
16%
0%
Justin Thomas
13%
8.6
7.5
16
6%
-7%
Dustin Johnson
11%
9
9
10.4
10%
-1%
Rickie Fowler
13%
8.8
8
6.5
15%
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
8%
14.5
13
10
10%
3%
Brooks Koepka
8%
17
13
20
5%
-3%
Jon Rahm
8%
15
13
12
8%
1%
Marc Leishman
5%
24
21
15
7%
2%
Pat Perez
3%
44
31
25
4%
1%
Patrick Cantlay
4%
30
26
38
3%
-1%
Brian Harman
2%
50
41
48
2%
0%
Kevin Kisner
4%
40
26
40
2%
-1%
Xander Schauffele
3%
55
34
61
2%
-1%
Daniel Berger
2%
44
41
62
2%
-1%
Brendan Steele
2%
60
51
29
3%
1%
Kevin Chappell
2%
75
51
50
2%
0%
Russell Henley
2%
46
46
45
2%
0%
Austin Cook
1%
120
81
191
1%
-1%
Cameron Smith
2%
46
41
54
2%
-1%
Jason Dufner
1%
140
91
32
3%
2%
Kyle Stanley
1%
90
67
93
1%
0%
Patton Kizzire
1%
140
81
326
0%
-1%
Adam Hadwin
1%
170
101
53
2%
1%
Bryson Dechambeau
1%
90
81
231
0%
-1%
Hudson Swafford
1%
190
126
88
1%
0%
Billy Horschel
1%
150
126
131
1%
0%
SiWoo Kim
1%
130
101
200
1%
0%
Jhonattan Vegas
1%
140
126
67
1%
1%
Ryan Armour
0%
380
201
191
1%
0%
Jonas Blixt
0%
330
201
378
0%
0%
Chris Stroud
0%
430
301
1760
0%
0%
Wesley Bryan
1%
160
126
77
1%
0%
D.A. Points
0%
610
501
426
0%
0%


It is hard to advise bets on Betfair, especially 72 hole matches as liquidity is slim and prices can change substantially. I will however show you how I price the 72 hole matches if you chose to get involved. It is my percentage chance followed by my price followed by the current betfair price as of 14.00 Wednesday. Fowler, Spieth and Cantlay look the ones to be with.

Fowler 69% ,1.34, 1.92. V Thomas 31%, 3.03, 2.1
Spieth 64%, 1.45. V DJ 36%, 2.54, 2.18
Koepka 35%, 2.68, 1.91 V Rahm 65%, 1.42, 1.91
Matsuyama 53%, 1.73, 1.63 V Leishman 47%, 1.99, 2.28
Cantlay 65%, 1.42, 1.81 V Kisner 35%, 2.66, 2.24
Berger 53%, 1.74, 1.85 V Harman 47%, 1.98, 1.92.

I will continue to recommend our 72 hole bets with Skybet as I like not having the tie involved and they put up a good selection each week.

The three I like are;

Cantlay 65%, 1.42, 1.83 V Kisner 35%, 2.66, 1.83
Spieth 73%, 1.27, 1.73 V Thomas 27%, 3.43, 2.00
Steele 60%, 1.54, 1.83 V Chappell 40%, 2.31, 1.83.



Best of luck as always,

JK


Sentry TOC - Outright


no bets.


Sentry TOC - 72 Hole Matches (Skybet - tie no bet)

60.03 points Spieth to beat Thomas @ 8/11 (+43.82)
19.68 points Cantlay to beat Kisner @ 5/6 (+16.33)
38.05 points Steele to beat Chappell @ 5/6 (-38.05)





2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) =
984.10 points

This week's P&L =
This week’s investment = 0 points

This week's Outright P&L =
This weeks's Outright Investment = 0 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -15.90
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 155.76 points



2018 Total P&L =
2018 Total Investment = points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
2018 Outright Bets Investment = points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L = 
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system.

Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system.

Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

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