UA-33754892-1 Archives for 30 September 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children and the Alfred Dunhill Links

Wow, what a Ryder Cup that was! Great sport and an epic, if unexpected victory for Europe. I thought the US would win and very nearly backed them at a short price. Fortunately I thought better of it and just had two small correct score bets. Strangely with an hour and a half of play left the predicted score was still 17-11 in favour of the USA but obviously that prediction fell victim to another huge tide of European momentum. It was incredible. Anyway we won 9.5 points on the week and moved to +171.15 points in profit for the year or £1711.50 ahead to a £10 stake.

This week is obviously going to feel like a come down but lets have a look at the JT Shriners Hospital for Children Open. Simply the event is in Las Vegas at TPC Summerlin and there will be a lot of birdies. The field is weak with Ryan Moore the 14/1 favourite. Moore will have a decent chance here. He is a solid all round player and ranks 18th in birdies. Also at the shorter side of the market Robert Garrigus looks to have found a good opportunity to get off the mark for the year. He has come close a few times and showed strong form during the playoffs. For me he is the most likely as his record in Vegas shows but 20/1 is short enough about a poor putter in a shoot out.

Bredon De Jonge loves a low scoring event and should be competitive at 60/1 but again his putting looks the main stumbling block. Jonas Blixt is a strong putter and has a certain amount of appeal at 66/1 but his long game, which should not be tested too much here, looks decidedly average.

The guy I like is Roberto Castro. He got his card at the School last year and has had a solid rookie season. This event has a strong record for throwing out first time winners, in fact 8 of the last 10 got off the mark here. He is very streaky and is not scared of making a lot of birdies which is what the winner here will have to do. In the low scoring events like the Greenbrier he has shown how apt he is at going low, shooting a second round 64 and a final round of 63. 30th in fairways hit and 17th in greens should give him a lot of looks and at 100/1 is our only interest this week in the States.

The Dunhill Links is a great event played on great courses but is not the best betting proposition. It is one of the biggest fields of the year with Tours from all around the world represented. It is in pro am format and played by the sea in Scotland during October. A lot of the favoured players are run down after hectic schedules and Ryder Cups. Therefore it is a week to watch more than play, a week to limit ones exposure but at the same time try and lock in some big value.

Dustin Johnson and Louis Oosthuizen look the two most likely but are hard to back with the variables. I am going to put a few up at big prices instead. I like Olesen 50/1, Fisher 66/1, Gallacher 100/1, Eduardo Molinari 125/1, Havret 200/1, Haig 400/1 and Broberg 150/1.

Thorbjorn Olesen won the Sicilian Open this year and proved his fondness for links golf with a 9th place finish in The Open. He should have won in Austria soon after but had a poor final round. I think he should give us a good run at 50/1. Ross Fisher has the long game to enjoy Carnoustie but if the weather sticks to the forecast there will be some low scoring at St Andrews and Kingsbarns and that has not been his forte of late. It is a similar story with Stephen Gallacher and Gregory Havret. They both have to be respected in Scotland but neither have shown enough and Gallacher especially has looked venerable over short putts, which are no easier in pro am format with all the extra going on. Eduardo Molinari has been out with injury for most the year but is back to full fitness. He will have been inspired by his brother last week and says his practice has been bang on of late. He is worth an interest at 125/1. Kristoffer Broberg has won 3 times on the Challenge Tour this year. He is a fearless player and fits a similar profile to Tommy Fleetwood who placed at a big price for us here last year. I like him at 150/1 in conditions to suit.

My final pick is Anton Haig at 400/1, 500/1 with Coral. He ‘retired’ from golf a while ago after a short, erratic, but at times successful career. He won the Johnnie Walker Championship and on the Asian Tour too. He is making his comeback and is working harder than ever before. This work was rewarded with a victory on the E-Golf Tour last week in the States. He is in form, has big weapons and is overpriced this week.

Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

1 pt each way Roberto Castro @ 100/1 (-2 pts)

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

1 pt each way Thorbjorn Olesen @ 50/1 (+11.5 pts)
0.5 pts each way Eduardo Molinari @ 125/1 (-1 pt)
0.5 pts each way Kristoffer Broberg @ 150/1 (-1 pt)
0.25 pts each way Anton Haig @ 400/1 (500/1 with Coral) (-0.5 pt)


2012 running total +171.15 points. This weeks investment 6.5 points. This weeks P&L = +7 pts.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf

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Ryder Cup Day 3 Singles.

First up, Ladbrokes once again have been smart and in return are offering some value. In the Stricker Vs Kaymer match they bet 11/10 (general 5/6, as short as 8/13) about Stricker and only 3/1 the tie. They are obviously protecting themselves in case the USA get it won early and players start taking halves in their games. I don’t think this will happen. Firstly, the draw has fallen well for Europe and they can legitimately make a run at the US today and secondly every player, more than ever, really cares about their individual records. Like war medals. I think Stricker beats Kaymer and although I see it as a price irregularity so will not make the pick official, I would not put anyone off taking advantage of Ladbrokes ‘over thinking’.

Like I said, Europe will be licking their lips after seeing the draw. They have a chance. I am not saying they will win even this session but it has been as kind as possible. The big difference is that Europe have noticeably gone with strength early and the US, and this is the difference between the teams, have got quality and strength throughout. They have no weaker players.

Donald and Watson are first out. If Bubba plays good he wins, if he doesn’t Luke will be waiting for him. This course offers so much advantage to Bubba’s style that if he plays good then Luke can not compete. I am not going to have a play in this one. They are contrasting players but rank 9th in 10th in stroke average on Tour. Basically you would be taking 11/8 about Bubba playing well which under the circumstances is no guarantee.

The Ryder Cup man mountain that is Ian Poulter takes on Webb Simpson in match 2. What is it about the Ryder Cup that turns Ian Poulter into Tiger Woods and Tiger Woods into Ian Poulter? In any other event of the year to get 6/4 about Webb Simpson to beat Poulter heads up would be to good to turn down. Poulter is the incredible hulk in Ryder Cup week. Having said this, Webb is the better player and has been playing, and especially putting, great. Evs Poulter is a hype price and once yesterday’s dust has settled it is clear to see Webb is the bet. This match could decide the fate of the Cup and I think if Webb gets up early this match could fizzle out, as would Europe’s chances. Webb is very level headed and has enormous self belief and can deal with the ‘extras’ in this game.

Rory V Keegan on paper is a tight game. I expect Rory to really lift his game today and put on quite a show. Bradley is a big price @ 8/5 and on paper matches up every bit to Rory but I think Rory will take out America’s new Ryder Cup hero.

In the Mickelson V Rose game I would love to be on Rose as I think Phil is vulnerable. However Rose has not got hot once this week and putts poorly. Mickelson is a showman and will enjoy playing against a guy who makes way to few birdies for a game like this. Should be close and one for me to leave alone.

Snedeker Vs Lawrie is a good game and I fancy Lawrie to put in a big performance. If Snedeker is acceptable tee to green he is hard to beat as he is such a good putter. Lawrie is big @ 7/4 but doesn’t have the weapons to kill off an in form Snedeker.

Talking about big weapons match 6 is Dustin Johnson Vs Nicholas Cosaerts (please edit any sexual innuendo from your own head!). They are both powerhouses and I think Dustin has the edge. He does not have enough of and edge to make evens a bet but I think he will win.

Zach Johnson V G-Mac should be a gutsy, grindy game. Zach has played the better out of the two and I expect him to prevail here. 6/5 is not flashy but I think G-Mac will be pushing too hard and Zach will putt him off the course.

I likle Sergio to beat Furyk. I think we will see the Spanish passion and flare coming from Garcia. These are the sort of days he thrives on and lives for and if Garcia holes putts and becomes inspired then Furyk will not have to amo to live with him. 6/5 is fair.

Dufner should dispense with the well rested Peter Hanson but I would not be getting carried away with the 10/11. I am confident in the result but not the price.

Westwood Vs Kuchar is an interesting match up. On form this week it is a no contest. Kuchar wins but Westwood is a funny animal. I expect him to come up with something today. He has a point to prove but the question is do I want to bet my money that Westwood might be able to prove a point. No, I don’t, but it is also enough to put me off backing the ever consistent Kuchar.

Like I said, if you have a Ladbrokes account take the 11/10 Stricker to beat Kaymer. Stricker has not shown enough, especially with the putter, this week to warrant interest at odds even though I think he will despatch Kaymer.

Woods has nuls point this week. He will after today. Molinari is a sitting duck for Woods. He knows Molanari will play his game and limit his mistakes and probably shoot 2 or 3 under. It would be enough to in some matches but not Woods when he has to win, and Woods has to win today just to salvage some pride. (Is that a big cat pun?!). 5/6 is a fair price, but I am a little reserved as the ‘lets take a half’ is built into this price. Still, Woods has been very impressive on his own ball this week and he should win this. Not worth a big interest, but worth an interest all the same.

Ryder Cup Day 3 Singles.

4 pts Webb Simpson to beat Ian Poulter @ 6/4 (-4 pts)
2.5 pts Zach Johnson to beat Graeme McDowell @ 6/5 (+3 pts)
2.5 pts Sergio Garcia to beat Jim Furyk @ 6/5 (+3 pts)
3 pts Tiger Woods to beat Francesco Molinari @ 5/6 (- 3pts)


Already Advised

Ryder Cup Day 2 Foursomes.

2 pts Furyk & Snedeker to beat Mcdowell & Mcilroy@ 13/8 (+3.25 pts)
2.5 pts Mickelson & Bradley to beat Westwood & Donald @ 6/5 (+3 pts)

Ryder Cup Day 1 Afternoon Fourballs

4 pts USA to win afternoon fourballs @ 5/4 (+5 pts)

3.5 pts Watson & Simpson @ 10/11 (+3.2 pts)

2 pts Dustin Johnson & Kuchar @ 11/10 (+2.2 pts)

2 pts Woods & Stricker @ 6/5 (-2)

Ryder Cup Day 1 Foursomes.


2 pts Zach Johnson & Dufner to beat Westwood & Francesco Molinari @ 5/4 (+2.5 pts)
3 pts Woods & Stricker to beat Poulter & Rose @ EVS (-3 pts)
1 pt double the above two @ 7/2 (-2 pts)

The Ryder Cup - Specials

0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17-11 @ 20/1
0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17.5-10.5 @ 28/1


2012 running total +162 points. This weeks investment 35 points. This week’s P & L = +9.15

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf









Comments