UA-33754892-1 Archives for 30 October 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC - HSBC Champions

Last week was rather pleasant. In Shanghai Seung-Yul Noh came back from a poor opening round to shoot a stunning 63 on day two. Going into the final round he had a great chance to win but could only come up with a 73. Good for a place, not good enough for a win. But the young Korean won us 8 points and I think he may well be a player who wins us lots more points in the future.

The Asian contingent disappointed in Malaysia. Kruger, Aphribarnrat and Siddikur never got involved as the US Tour showed its class. Fortunately for us Bo Van Pelt was the classiest of all. His putting did click and he played pure golf in what was a comfortable win in the end. He won us 52.5 points. The Asians cost us 3.

In Spain, at Valderrama, Matteo Manassero had a solid week after a poor first round. The Thursday cost him and it was always going to be difficult for him to get involved in Sunday’s action from that far back, he cost us 3 points. Garcia won. For the second week in a row. His fifth win on Spanish soil. He looks like he is back. His game has always been a different level to your average pro but now he converting some chances with the putter he looks like he has his interest back. A Garcia with a good attitude is a dangerous thing. He was the final leg of our trixie. Westwood finished 5th in Shanghai, one out of the places, which cost us about 50 points. However the Van Pelt / Garcia double will soon put a smile back on your face. The 28/1 and 13/2 double won us 115.25 points. That means for the week we won 169.75 points. Thats more than doubled our yearly total just in time for Christmas! That total now stands at 318.54 points or £3185.40 to a £10 stake. As I said rather pleasant!

As I said Garcia was the performance that stood out for me. He has always been a classy golfer and when his attitude matches he is more than capable of being the best player in the world. His attitude looks spot on at the moment and if he can maintain that into next season he is certainly more than capable of claiming his first Major. I say that as there is not, relatively, that much to beat out there. We all talk about Donald’s year of consistency and top tens, it certainly has been a good year for Doanld fans, but not exceptional, just exceptional compared to the others. The last time the US money title went down to the final event of the year was 2003 when Vijay and Tiger were going head to head. That year Vijay had won 9 times and still not got the money list sewn up. Doanld’s year would not have even been on the radar in 2003. There is now an opportunity for a player to stand up and separate himself from the others. A mentally healthy Garcia would be hard to beat, perhaps 2012 will be the Spaniards year.

So on to this week, the World Golf Championship - HSBC Champions is played at the Sheshan course in China. The 7250 yard course is no walk over. It is demanding from the tee and has huge, undulating greens putting an emphasis on solid approach work and putting. I would like to have seen a Ross Fisher, Woods Mickelson playing. They always did well on this course but I guess its a sign of the times that only Mickelson had place to turn down this year. Another I looked for was Garcia but he does not play either.

Rory McIlroy is the correct favourite at 5/1. His form reads 3, 3, 2, 2, 1 and plays well in Asia. He is hard to ignore but you have to feel with his recent schedule that even a fit youngster will have to get tired sooner or later and he freely admits that he plays his best golf after a break. I am a big fan of Westwood this week. His ball striking will be rewarded at this venue and he has a good record here and in Asia. My only concern is his putting. The undulating greens will be a foe rather than a friend this the week. I don’t doubt he can win this with his long game but it makes 9/1 a little short. He should be good for a place but is 9/4 worth a punt? I don’t think so when there is plenty of better value elsewhere.

I like BVP (Bo Van Pelt) again this week. 40/1 seems like a fair price and his game looked primed last week. Back to back wins is always a big ask but his price has remained generous considering last weeks performance. I’m in. I also like Scott, Mahan and Watney. Scott is short enough at 16/1 and I may wait for next weeks Singapore Open to back the Aussie. Mahan showed he is in good nick last week in Shanghai, he also proved he can handle the foreign conditions. He is tempting at 25/1 but when I see Watney a point shorter at 22/1 he becomes the value for me. Mahan, since his rather embarrassing finish to the Ryder Cup last year, seems to have lost his edge. He has not been in front at the conclusion of any round in any event this year despite his enormous ability. On the flip side Watney has become a winner, a closer this year. He has a WGC title under his belt already from Doral and can win this. 22/1 is fair.

My third pick this week is David Toms. He does not travel too much so it is hard to say how much he is going to enjoy China but anyone who is 6th in driving accuracy, 6th in greens in regulation and 18th in putting must have a decent chance on any course, anywhere. 50/1 is a good price. My final pick is another at 50/1 who stands out for two reasons. The excellent season he is enjoying and his fantastic record in Asia. Simon Dyson will be relishing this week. He is in form, confident and says he is feeling great after starting a new fitness programme at the start of this season. 50/1 is a good price, especially when you consider Francesco Molinari is 25/1. Molinari has good record in this event but I have no idea how he is only 25/1. He is half the price of Dyson and the same as Mahan, Kaymer, Schwartzel, unreal.

Anyway, they are the four picks I’m putting forward to continue last weeks success……

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WGC - HSBC Champions

2 pts each way Nick Watney @ 22/1
1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 40/1
1 pt each way David Toms @ 50/1
1 pt each way Simon Dyson @ 50/1

2011 running total +318.54 pts This weeks investment 11 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.