UA-33754892-1 Archives for 30 March 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

NH Collection Open and Shell Houston Open

Willy MacK did us proud again last week with a solid second place finish and a second placed finish in three starts. How rude of me to doubt him in the preview. Maybe he is overachieving but long may it continue. If you do it long enough you stop overachieving as the mean keeps rising and you simply become a very good player. The same progression we followed Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar through.

Senden disappointed but Brendon Todd came so close to making it another very good week. Having made the cut on the mark he played some great golf over the weekend finishing in a tie for sixth, missing a 37.5/1 place by a shot. Close, but it was still a good week returning a 10 point profit.

On to this week. The NH Open is a co-sanctioned event between the European and Challenge Tours, with the prize fund being provided by the European Tour. It is an event staged to replace the St. Omer event. This is definitely a decent step up in venue.

La Reserva, in Sotogrande, is a very good club with a strong golf course. I have played there a fair bit recently. Although long on the card at 7393 it doesn’t play that long. There is no rough really to speak of. The two main protectors to the course are the greens and the wind. The greens have been very firm and fast but it is raining there today which should offset this protection a little. The other protector is the wind, which can really pump in this part of Spain, and if it does it could be brutal. However, the rain is set to continue for the next couple of days before sun breaks through on the weekend and wind forecasts do not look too much of an issue. Therefore I think scoring should go fairly low. 16 under could be a winning total as there are plenty of chances and all the par 5s are gettable.

Having said all this it is a very difficult puzzle to try and solve. There are a bunch of players here I don’t really know much about and there is very little form to go by, as most the Challenge Tour players have not really got going. There are a lot of guys who could be big prices, like Anders Hansen @ 66/1 coming back from injury, but it would be a real punt to back him. There are other player who have been drastically out of form but if they were to bounce back could walk this. Dredge at 200/1 could be one of these, he has had two good results on a mini tour in the last few weeks, this is obviously harder but not beyond his former ability.

So, instead of giving fors and againsts for every player lets get to the three I like. I think, and I know it doesn’t take a genius to state this, Canizares is the man to beat. I spoke to him and his caddy on Monday and they were saying how they have been playing great for a while and then it clicked in Morocco and it felt so easy. This is local to him, he will be sleeping in his own bed and with the pressure to win relented somewhat, he can enjoy another big week on a course that sets up well. Hopefuly the rain doesn’t make it play too long.

The second guy who I like and think is a big pice is Lasse Jensen @ 250/1. He played well in this part of Spain two years ago and although he had a torrid time in his first year on tour, he looks to be heading in the right direction again. He has two top 8s on mini tours in the last few weeks, finished 2nd in Kenya on the Challenge Tour and does well in the wind. Worth a crack at a big price.

The final pick is a player a good friend of mine, John Rhodes from Skybet, has already backed this week and I can see why. Edouard Espana sounds like a local but is actually from France. He is a very good player and despite, again, being out of sorts for a little while, looks to be back. He has won twice in his last four starts. Once on the MENA Tour (Middle East and North Africa) and once on the EPD (German) Tour. He also has another 5th on the EPD in his last 4. Now, I know this is a big step up from this form but I have played with him and he is good. He also won in Spain, be it in Madrid on the Alps, a couple of years ago. Anyway, he is worth a go at 200/1

The good thing about looking through the European co-sanctioned event first is it makes the PGA Tour look so easy! I recognise all the names!

The final event in the run up to The Masters is the Shell Houston Open. Last year, as a result of sponsorship negotiations, Valero had the Texas Open as the supporting act to the seasons first Major. Houston is a better choice as the course is set up to try and simulate the Augusta experience. Quick greens, big run offs etc. But the Golf Club of Houston is a decent test in its own right. 7441 yards with impressive rankings in the course stats tables. Most notably it is the hardest course, for the last five years, for scrambling from the rough. Par 5s also rank as one of the hardest sets of the season.

The five I like are Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson, Charles Howell III, Ryan Palmer and Chris Stroud.

Dustin Johnson finished 4th here last year, finished 4th in his last start at Doral in the WGC and has had top 10s in all of his five starts this year in stroke play events. He is the player to beat and at 14/1 is not a bad bet. I would have him in the outright market if I didn’t like some other players as well. As an outright bet he lopsides the staking plan unfortunately.

Instead, lets back Webb Simpson each way at 50/1. He has been a little out of sorts the last few weeks but has been playing a busy schedule. He missed the cut last week but I am not too worried about that, he will want to put in a performance in his final warm up before Augusta. Last year Billy Horschel lead the putting stats and finished 2nd, DA Points who won ranked 10th in putting. Webb ranks 6th on Tour and 19th in greens. Another thing to take from last years event, DA Points only had 3 bogies all week. Webb is 14th in bogey avoidance and Dustin 2nd. Webb is a bet at an overinflated price.

Charles Howell III is a big price at 70/1 considering he has 5 top 10s this season and has finished in the top 20 here the last two years, finishing 10th last year. 7th in greens in regulation and 5th in bogey avoidance are big statistical positives too and he is a fairly confident selection at the price.

Ryan Palmer shot a horrific 82 in the final round last week when in a strong position. Sometimes things like that take time to get over but the fact he finished 2nd in the Honda on his prior start will help and he is clearly playing well. I understand this is a stronger field than last week but 25/1 to 80/1 seems excessive. DA Points ranked 1st in par 4 scoring last year, Palmer ranks 8th. Dustin Johnson 1st. Palmer can handle the par 5s too. He ranks 12th in par 5 scoring, Webb 2nd, Dustin 1st. Ryan Palmer gets his place in the staking plan at a nice price.

Chris Stroud this season has finished mc,3,mc,3,20,mc,19,12,9,31. Pretty solid and he would have returned some nice each way money in the process. He also ranks 4th in bogey avoidance. He ranks 12th in par 5 scoring and 8th in par 4 scoring. 80/1 is fair.

Shell Houston Open

1 point each way Webb Simpson @ 50/1
1 point each way Charles Howell @ 70/1
0.75 points each way Ryan Palmer @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Chris Stroud @ 80/1

NH Collection Open

0.5 points each way Lasse Jensen @ 250/1
0.5 points each way Edouard Espana @ 200/1

Special Bets

1 point each way double Dustin Johnson @ 14/1 and Alejandro Canizares @ 16/1

Antepost Bet

1 point each way Dustin Johnson to win The Masters @ 20/1

2014 running total =  +34.4 points. This week’s investment 12.5 points. This weeks P&L = -10.5 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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