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Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Paul Waring Update

Paul Waring not only withdrew from the Irish Open but also International Final Qualifying for The Open. He is injury prone and one has to feel something is wrong. At best this will have hampered his preparations for this. No bet.


French Open

*NO BET* Paul Waring @ 150/1 *NO BET*

Comments

The Greenbrier Classic and French Open

At the Irish Open Brandon Stone showed his dislike for poor weather and missed the cut. Edfors continued his poor run and missed the cut comfortably. Fasth had an awful finish to his 2nd round to join Edfors and Stone. Quiros was +4 thru 10 holes on day 1 and finished in a tie for 5th. His finish of bogey - par when most the field was finishing par - birdie cost us a little money but he still returned 7.8 points. Gregory Havret showed enough during the week to suggest he is not far away. He was sneaking into contention on day 3 before double bogeying the par 3, 17th. He finished in a tie for 15th, two shots outside the places. In the States Henley was the only player from our four that really showed up. However, a poor weekend from the young rookie meant a losing week. We lost 3.7 points in all leaving us at -112.95 pts for the season.

The scores are still rolling in at Local Final Qualifying for The Open. Our three picks are not looking good. I think I can safely settle them now as losers and another 3.8 points go. -116.65 points.

So to this week. Two big events and two very competitive betting heats. The French Open at Le Golf National in Paris and The Greenbrier Classic at The Old White TPC in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. Lets do America first.

The Greenbrier Classic is a strange one to try and work out. The Old White TPC looks fairly innocuous. A par 70 at 7287 yards that has little defence. -16 played off last year. The rough is never too penal, finding fairways is not too difficult, nor greens. The course plays fast and the greens are pretty flat. It is also an easy course to get up and down on. Last year the players got up and down nearly 62% of the time.

So why did Woods miss the cut last year? Why has Mickelson missed the cut the last two years? It should be right up their street. The last two winners, Scott Stallings and Ted Potter Jnr were rookies. A conundrum. The only conclusions one can draw is that one, the course is an equaliser. It is not a stern test so the cream will not always rise and two, the time of year. For big players this is a time of preparing for Majors. The in-between Major time is spent working on the game, experimenting with technique, equipment etc. One eye on The Greenbrier and the other on The Open. For rookies and strugglers this is the time of year where they have settled into life on Tour and they realise they are running out of time to make their mark. So what do we look for?

Well, Mickelson has to be the man to beat despite his missed cut, missed cut form at the event and the above paragraph! His game sets up so well for this course. For me, looking back at previous years stats here, putting is everything. Last year for example the top 20 in putting had an average finishing position of 22.55 and contained 7 players who finished in the top 10. The next closest stat is greens in regulation where the top 20 averaged 33.5 and contained 2 players in the top 10. The winner, Ted Potter Jnr, ranked 3rd in driving accuracy, but this was not a trend continued by the other contenders.

Ted Potter Jnr. > Dr. Acc. = 3rd. DR. Dist. = 37th. GIR. = 21st. PUTTING = 2nd. BIRDIES = 12th. FINISH. POS. = 1st
Troy Kelly > Dr. Acc. = 75th. DR. Dist. = 11th. GIR. = 28th. PUTTING = 6th. BIRDIES = 2nd. FINISH. POS. = 2nd
Charlie Wi > Dr. Acc. = 20th. DR. Dist. = 17th. GIR. = 32nd. PUTTING = 5th. BIRDIES = 28th. FINISH. POS. = 3rd

The leader in greens in regulation was Roberto Castro who finished 7th. Ken Duke, who ranked first in putting, finished in an ambulance to finish 7th. These are two form players going into this and obviously like the venue. Castro shot a 2nd round 64 and a 4th round 63. Duke, known more for straight driving than putting opened with 66,68,65 and had it going on day 4 before finishing with two doubles in the last 4. Castro is a well supported 50/1 chance after his 2nd last week and Duke 100/1 after his win the previous week. I can’t see Duke getting in the mix again. He may well run flat after the realisation of his first PGA Tour win and has no real big weapons. Castro has more of a chance but still ranks a lowly 176th in putting. Tougher ball striking tests will suit him better than this and one would think he will have to own the GIR stat once again to contend again.

So Mickelson, yeah, big chance. On current form he should walk this. Last four starts see finishes of 3,78,2,2. The last ‘2’ was in the US Open which he should have won. His ball striking there was impressive and he ranks 9th on tour in putting, 5th highest in this field. If he had never played here before I would be on the 14/1 but it is hard to ignore the MC, MC course form.

I really liked the look of Jordon Spieth for this after his 6th last week and the rookie trend of winners at this event. That was his 5th top 10 of what has been an impressive rookie year and 40/1 looked more than fair. 134th in putting is the negative and again, he is more of a player for a tougher test.

Talking of tougher tests and easier tests. I always mention that Brendon De Jonge likes an easy test. He ranks highly on my figures this week. I can’t back him at 50/1 this week. He should be an 80/1 chance considering he has nothing better than 39th place finish in his last four starts. He finished 3rd here in 2010 and 4th in 2011 hence the price is tight.

Bill Haas, last week’s impressive winner, finished 2nd here in 2011 and has a win and a 4th in his last 3 starts. 22/1 is about the right price and it would be no surprise to see him go well again but there is better value out there.

Scott Stallings would be a very obvious pick. A rookie win here in a playoff in 2011 and having a big season again in 2013. Form of 4,4,2,53,103 looks decent. Especially when you can kind of discount the last two big numbers as he does all his best work on easier tracks. 40/1 is fair but his a little too far down my list to back.

This week I am going to go with three solid runners and four outsiders. This is more than I normally go for in a week. It’s just I really fancy the solid three and can’t split the outsiders, and outsiders have such a good record here.

My first solid pick is Billy Horschel. He had snuck out to a decent price at 33/1 when I started looking last night. He has been clipped into 28/1. It is still a good price. He has gone off shorter in better fields this year. His stats stack up really nicely for this. 24th in putting (12th in the field), 13th in scoring, 9th in both the all round and ball striking. His only weak stat is 137th in scrambling. But as mentioned, a players scrambling is not tested too much around here. 10,4,61 on his last three starts is ok but his course form is a little ropey with a 66th and a 33rd. There is no doubt he is a different player this year to the last two and he will be coming here thinking of two things. Securing a Presidents Cup birth and winning this event. Plenty of incentive. I like him to put in a big performance.

My second pick is Russell Henley. He is a pretty easy choice for this. A rookie who ranks 16th in putting. He fits the profile perfectly. 16th in putting puts him the 8th highest rated in the field and although he putts his best on bermuda he is proven on Bentgrass. This week is Tyee Creeping Bentgrass. There seems to be a strange link between the same players finishing well here and finishing well in the Sony Open in Hawaii. It is strange as the courses are very different apart from both being par 70’s. Henley won the Sony this year. 50/1 is a good price.

Charlie Howell III is 66/1 and looks like a good fit. He finished 9th here in 2010. His recent form is not great and he has not registered a top 10 since the end of April but he he played the ‘easy course run’ at the start of the season brilliantly. Add to that his excellent Sony Open record and a rank of 14th in putting and you can see why he deserves his place in the staking plan.

Now the outsiders. First up Greg Chalmers. No real form since the start of the year. Nothing better than 38th in his last 8 starts and a 51st and two missed cuts here. He is 250/1 here this week. The thing that is truly shocking is he ranks 1st in putting and 100th in scoring. Like I said, this is an easier test and it may click for him at a big price.

Cameron Tringale at 125/1 is the next one. Nothing better than 16th in his last 8 but he did finish 4th here in 2011. His stats stand out a little more for his ball striking than his putting which is often the case. It is tough to be highly ranked in both and still be 125/1. Another player who will be looking to turn their season around a little bit.

Bryce Molder is up next. 17th in scrambling and 15th in putting draw attention to him. 30th two weeks ago is the only bit of recent form of any note and he debuts here, which we know is not a problem. 150/1 for a guy who plays easy courses well is worth an interest.

Finally, Matt Jones. He played the easy course stretch at the start of the season well. 15th Sony Open in Hawaii, 23rd in the Humana and 14th in Puerto Rico. He finished 6th three starts ago at The Memorial. He has 3 missed cuts here, last year on the bubble, but I think he is a much better player than his price tag of 250/1.

In France it is easy to make a decent argument for a number of players. It is a strong line up with plenty of chances. My shortlist became a pretty long list quite quickly!

Lets go throughout them quickly. Bjorn 33/1. Been on fire recently. Form of 8,4,2,2,18. Hard to ignore, especially as he claims to be “seeing the hole like a bucket.” His best here is 18th and although his form suggests the price is decent there is more to like from some of the other contenders. Francesco Molinari is one of these. He has two 2nds in his last three starts here and has been playing ok without really clicking. If he had more than one top 10 in his last 7 starts he would have been of serious consideration at 28/1.

Poulter is another who plays well here. He has finished 3,18,4 in his last 3 starts. However, apart from the flicker of form he showed at the US Open his form is poor. He hits it so bad but scrambling could be the key around here. The leading scrambler the last 9 years has finished 1,1,1,3,2,10,16,2,3. Poulter is a hard one to know how to play him. He can’t string four rounds together in the States, he never contends. But away from the States he seems to find ways of getting in the mix. For me, I am going to leave him alone this week.

Donald is a worthy favourite. His results have been improving as the season has gone on and is hitting it a lot straighter this year. He is, as we know, a wizard on and around the greens. He has not putted as well but still ranks 6th on the US Tour. He has played here once and finished 11th. He has not contended enough for me this year to take the 14/1 but I would not be surprised to see him come back strongly after the US Open disappointment. I think that will have really motivated him.

Kaymer is also 14/1 and looking at his upturn in form since being back in Europe and his course form the price is justified. He has a win, a 6th and a 4th in 3 of his last 4 starts here. He also has 2 top 5’s in his last 4 starts. I am not sure he is the player he was and he is not for me this week. Kuchar has crossed the pond to play. 18/1 is a fair price and he is the best player in the field. He is not really a player that has travelled extensively so it isn’t easy to know what to expect from him. We know he is a complete golfer and any course should suit. I think he will go well. He finished 28th in the US Open. Before that he had a 2nd and a win. 12th in scrambling and 10th in putting bodes well and when you hear other players talking about how monotonous his driving is when he is on he could be the man to beat this week, especially with the rough up.

Wiesberger is a hot player right now. Form of 1,12,3,14,4 coming into this. Following him on a weekly bases would have been very profitable! He has only mustered up finishes of 62nd and 47th here though and one has the feeling this is more competitive than what he has faced in his recent run. I am sure he will have his supporters at 40/1. Marcel Siem defends this week. 40/1 is fair. He finished 10th in Germany on his last start. Before that he had a few questionable weeks. One has to feel this was the result of trying to play in the States and in Europe. Another contender, but a little too in and out for me.

Out of the French I like Havret and Bourdy. As I mentioned, Havret put in a decent run in for us last week finishing 15th. He is a streaky player but does not have much of a record here. 53,mc,mc,21,40. That combined with being nibbled at in the market (100/1-70/1) means a line has gone through him. Bourdy is the Frenchman I am interested in backing. He finished 6th here in 2010 and has finished 21,12,59,8,58 on his last 5 starts which is ok. He will be buzzing this week with it being his national open and being a big part of the publicity and hype for the 2018 Ryder Cup here. He is a neat and tidy player. A guy who can shoot 66 when you think he has shot 70. He makes very few mistakes and does not go for the spectacular which should work well around here. I think he will go well and 100/1 is a fair price. Jacquelin is half that price and Wattel is 70/1 despite missing 3 cuts in 4 starts here with a best of 32nd. There is some value in Bourdy.

Another player with decent course form (30,13,2,47,mc) and recent form (4,27,92,10) is Alejandro Canizares. He is an easy player not to tip as his name is so hard to spell! 80/1 is a decent price about the Spaniard. Another Spaniard with a decent price tag is Larrazabal. He won here in 2008 and says it is his favourite course. His new found commitment to the game this season is paying dividends but he is finding it hard to win. His form here since the win is not great. 1,31,mc,mc,61. He has also changed as a player. When he won he hit iron everywhere. He is much more cavalier now and can spray the driver. I am going to leave him out this week.

Five guys at bigger prices that I like are Mark Foster, Soren Kjelsden, Henne Otto, Brandon Stone and Paul Waring. Foster is 125/1 and I am tempted by him as he has finished 6th here in 2010 and 2nd in 2011. However, his recent form makes him very hard to back. 92nd and 124th the last two weeks and no top 20’s in his last 7 starts. Kjelsden has finished 7,13,26,mc,9 the last 5 years here. He also has two top 20’s in his last 4 starts. 100/1 appears big but when you think of the players he has to beat and how long it has been since he had a real chance to win I may just leave him alone.

Paul Waring is 150/1 for the French Open. He finished 6th here in 2009 and has two top 5’s and a top 10 in his last 7 starts. I like the price, I like his form. What I need to find out is why he withdrew after opening with a 73 last week in Ireland. I will confirm the tip when I find out he is not injured.

I am going to give Brandon Stone another chance this week. Back out to 200/1 and with the weather set to be a lot better with only bits of wind up to 16kph I think he can bounce back and go well. The last pick, from a week of many picks, is Henne Otto. I appreciate this is a big shout but he has shown bits recently. Let me try and justify. In amongst some poor results he finished 14th in Austria 3 starts ago where he was sitting 5th through 2 rounds. He also boasts a 7th here in 2008 and in 2011. 250/1, 300/1 in two places, but with small firms, is worth a small investment.

There we go. I will confirm the Waring pick or not by email and if I can, on the website too.

The Greenbrier Classic

1 pt win only Billy Horschel @ 28/1 (-1pts)
1 pt each way Russell Henley @ 50/1 (-2pts)
0.75 pts each way Charles Howell III @ 66/1 (-1.5pts)
0.5 pts each way Cameron Tringale @ 125/1 (-1pts)
0.5 pts each way Bryce Molder @ 150/1 (-1pts)
0.25 pts each way Greg Chalmers @ 250/1 (-0.5pts)
0.25 pts each way Matt Jones @ 250/1 (+15.63 pts)

French Open

2 pts win only Matt Kuchar @ 18/1 (-2pts)
0.75 pts each way Gregory Bourdy @ 100/1 (-1.5pts)
0.75 pts each way Alejandro Canizares @ 80/1 (-1.5pts)
*NO BET* Paul Waring @ 150/1 *NO BET*
0.25 pts each way Brandon Stone @ 200/1 (-0.5pts)
0.25 pts each way Henne Otto @ 250/1
(300/1 in 2 places) (-0.5pts)

Special Bet

1pt each way double Billy Horschel 28/1 and Matt Kuchar @ 18/1 (-2pts)


Already Advised
Antepost - The Open


0.75 pts each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1
1.5 pts each way Sergio Garcia @ 33/1


2013 running total = -116.65
pts. This week’s investment 15.5 points. This weeks P&L = +0.63

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.








Comments

The Open - Final Qualifying

Local Final Qualifying takes place tomorrow. 36 holes in one day and the forecast is appalling. Still, Skybet have priced it up and there are three I quite like.

Local Final Qualifying - The Open

0.5 pts each way Simon Griffiths @ 28/1 (Gullane)
- Solid ball striker who should be less concerned than others if it gets windy and wet. Has qualified for an Open before and has good record on links. Gullane has easily the weakest field.

0.5 pts each way Francis McGuirk @ 33/1 (Musselbrough)
- Grown up on links at Princes Golf Club. Fearless and qualified for The Open at Royal St. Georges and missed by a shot for Royal Birkdale.

0.5 pts each way Rhys Enoch @ 28/1 (Dunbar)
- Talented youngster who has shown great consistency this season. Looks destined to be a future star.

0.1 pt each way trixie the above 3.

(Already Advised - Antepost - The Open)

0.75 pts each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1
1.5 pts each way Sergio Garcia @ 33/1


2013 running total = -112.95 pts. This week’s investment 3.8 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments