UA-33754892-1 Archives for 30 January 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Phoenix Open and Qatar Masters

This is a tough week for trying to pick winners. A few weeks into the season and you can prove decent form for so many players yet the stats are not fully stacked up so it is still a bit of a guessing game. In Qatar the market leader is Martin Kaymer. The 13/2 available for him seems rather generous looking at how good he has been since winning the USPGA and how well he plays courses like this, but all you have to do is look at the names immediately behind him and you realise this is a strong field. World number one Westwood, last weeks winner Casey, defending champ Karlsson, Quiros, Poulter and interestingly Steve Sticker making the trip to the Middle East. The quality is brimming at the top of the market and strong arguments can be made for the first 13 in the betting! Even my tip last week, Stephen Gallacher is half the price he was last week and this time up against a stronger field. He can go well again but I will not be with him at 50/1. Unfortunately this is the case with all the market leaders, each one can win but I cannot make a decent case for one in particular or see a price that is a little generous.

Therefore it may be worth seeking out something with a bit of value from the depths. Romain Wattel is a name that may well appear on this page a fair bit this year. I hope he will be my Matt Kuchar of 2011! He is a hyped up player. When players like Westwood mention that he is one to watch you have to listen. I missed backing him in the South African Open where he finished 5th. I thought the previous weeks Tour School (where he finished 9th) would have taken too much out of him. However the Frenchman, who turned 20 in January lived up to the hype there and I hope he does once again in Qatar. He missed the cuts in the African and Jo’burg Opens but can bounce back here after a much needed break. Lets play small on the 200/1 chance. My other pick is admittedly fairly optimistic but I think worth a play. He let me down earlier this year but David Dixon has shown enough this year to make me a backer at the huge 600/1 on offer. Like I say, a very difficult event but hopefully these two will give us a decent run for our money.

The Phoenix Open is an awesome event. Possibly the best atmosphere of any tournament all year but not one for the purists! Again, this looks a tough event. Trying to find the right type of player, a player with the correct profile seems impossible as there is no correct profile. When it id dry the short hitters have done well like Leonard, when wet long hitters have done well like two time winner JB Holmes. Over the last few years the winners have been 2006 and 2008 JB Holmes (bomber), 2007 Baddeley (awesome putter), 2009 Kenny Perry, 2010 Mahan (both green in reg players). So any player can win this!

A back in form Mickelson heads the market and the crowd love him here as he went to Arizona State. 8/1 does not appeal to me just because he has had one good week, he was 25/1 in Abu Dhabi two weeks ago and as we have seen since the Masters last year, it is impossible to predict which Mickelson will turn up. The young guns of Watney, Fowler, Mahan and Kim all have big chances and are priced accordingly. I would love to back Dustin Johnson here too. He is a class act and has all the weapons to destroy the TPC at Scottsdale. 12/1 is too short though and I would not want to be win only on him.

The player that does look a fair price is Geoff Ogilvy. He proved he likes desert golf with a fantastic record in the WGC Matchplay event. He was due to go off as 8/1 favourite for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions season opening event but ad to withdraw after cutting his finger open. If he is back to full fitness and has maintained his form from an excellent winter in Australia he could look a very big price come Sunday. Take the 40/1.

I am going to throw a bit more value in now. DA Points finished 5th last week at the Famers Insurance Championship and his all round stats look very solid. I think he is worth an interest at 125/1. Robert Garrigus almost landed a nice touch for us this year in the Hyundai, eventually losing in a play off. His form has tailed off a bit the last few weeks but the TPC at Scottsdale is his home course. He was 140/1 on Monday night and people must have made the same link as me. He is still available at 100/1 which still looks a bit tight to me and I think, regretfully, that I may have to leave him out. Instead put in Vaughn Taylor, another Augusta State graduate. He is 7th in putting, 4th in birdies, 8th in total driving, 25th in greens in regulation and 2nd in all round ranking. He fits the ‘profile’ of an all round good player and is a juicy price at 125/1. I am going to stick one more in as we are on small stakes in Europe. Chris Couch, 4th here last year and having another solid start to his 2011 campaign. He is an unfashionable golfer to back as he chips cack handed and has a massive bulge of chewing tobacco in his cheek all the time. Therefore he always represents good value. He is 4th in putting average and finished 7th in the Bob Hope. 110/1 is a good price.

Qatar Masters

0.5pts each way Romain Wattel @ 200/1
0.25pts each way David Dixon @ 600/1

Phoenix Open

1.5pts each way Geoff Ogilvey @ 40/1
0.5pts each way DA Points @ 125/1
0.5pts each way Vaughn Taylor @ 125/1
0.5pts each way Chris Couch @ 110/1

Special Bet

1pt each way double Steve Sticker @ 25/1 and Dustin Johnson @ 12/1

2011 running total +46 pts This weeks investment 9.5 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

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Another Profitable Week

Stephen Gallacher, my new hero!! Another big price player gets us a place and takes us to another profitable week. Gallacher battled hard all week to finish 4th and return 22.5/1 for his place finish. Elsewhere Ben Crane finished 12th in the States. He was up there all week but never really fired. Charlie Wi made the cut but was never a factor.

To update Goosen, the previous week got a place in Abu Dhabi to secure a 7pt profit for the week. Our season total rose to 26.5 points. This week we made a profit of 19.5pts to take us to 46 points profit for 2011 or £460 to a £10 stake.

Tips for the Qatar Masters and the Phoenix Open will be sent to the email subscribers tomorrow and online by Wednesday morning...... well if I can find some decent value bets!


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