UA-33754892-1 Archives for 30 December 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Sentry Tournament of Champions - In running after round 3

Nothing doing after 3 rounds apart from to hope Woodland struggles on Sunday.

Player

imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Woodland
54%
1.84

1.82
54.9%
1%
1.02
McIlroy
26%
3.80

4.50
22.2%
-4%
-15.59
Leishman
10%
10.00

10.12
9.9%
0%
-1.22
Dechambeau
7%
15.00

27.87
3.6%
-3%
-46.17
Schauffele
5%
19.00

17.06
5.9%
1%
11.39
Thomas
2%
51.00

78.76
1.3%
-1%
-35.24
Johnson
1%
126.00

87.70
1.1%
0%
43.67
Tway
1%
151.00

443.98
0.2%
0%
-65.99
Rahm
1%
151.00

125.89
0.8%
0%
19.95




Sentry Tournament of Champions - (In running after round 2)

We backed Rory yesterday and he looks worth backing again. You may not know I am not the biggest Rory fan, I think he is an overrated driver of the ball, I think he has a poor short game and is a very poor putter. But I have never denied that when it does click for him he can be awesome, just he struggles to save bad rounds or struggles to manage them and keep the scoring competitive.

However, this week he looks to be cruising. Nothing has really happened for him, no bonuses, he has just been solid. He has been in Hawaii since the 27th December and played the course more than anyone in the build up. He looks settled and ready for a big weekend. The wind will calm and the scoring will improve. You can take 6/1, I would be 9/2.


To Win

0.5 points Rory McIlroy @ 6/1 (-0.5)


Player

imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Woodland
28%
3.60

3.23
30.9%
3%
11.31
Dechambeau
16%
6.10

11.59
8.6%
-8%
-47.37
McIlroy
14%
7.00

5.34
18.7%
4%
31.12
Thomas
8%
12.00

14.37
7.0%
-1%
-16.48
Leishman
8%
13.00

10.92
9.2%
1%
19.02
Tway
6%
17.00

28.92
3.5%
-2%
-41.22
Johnson
5%
21.00

21.58
4.6%
0%
-2.71
Schauffele
5%
21.00

21.60
4.6%
0%
-2.76
Champ
4%
23.00

60.49
1.7%
-3%
-61.98
Day
4%
26.00

32.35
3.1%
-1%
-19.64
Rahm
3%
34.00

32.71
3.1%
0%
3.95
Poulter
1%
67.00

50.64
2.0%
0%
32.32
Simpson
1%
81.00

79.78
1.3%
0%
1.53








Sentry Tournament of Champions - (In running after round 1)

After round 1 in Hawaii I like Leishman and McIlroy. I liked Leishman pre event as he is a good wind player, has been playing a lot and finished 7th here last year. Rory looked good yesterday. Both are now bankable prices. I would be 10/1 about each of them, 14/1 is available. Not huge value but I like their chances.

To Win

0.25 points Rory McIlroy @ 14/1 (-0.25)
0.25 points Marc Leishman @ 14/1 (-0.25)


113%
Player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Johnson
29%
3.50

3.92
25.5%
-3%
-10.72
Thomas
17%
6.00

6.33
15.8%
-1%
-5.28
Dechambeau
8%
13.00

36.91
2.7%
-5%
-64.78
Rahm
7%
15.00

17.49
5.7%
-1%
-14.23
McIlroy
7%
15.00

11.71
8.5%
2%
28.15
Leishman
7%
15.00

11.42
8.8%
2%
31.40
Woodland
7%
15.00

13.10
7.6%
1%
14.53
Day
6%
17.00

20.37
4.9%
-1%
-16.56
Tway
5%
21.00

29.68
3.4%
-1%
-29.24
Reed
4%
26.00

33.11
3.0%
-1%
-21.47
Simpson
3%
29.00

25.38
3.9%
0%
14.25
Watson
2%
46.00

60.91
1.6%
-1%
-24.48
Champ
2%
51.00

251.76
0.4%
-2%
-79.74
Kizzire
1%
67.00

547.53
0.2%
-1%
-87.76
Putnam
1%
71.00

108.52
0.9%
0%
-34.58
Schauffele
1%
81.00

110.84
0.9%
0%
-26.92
Poulter
1%
101.00

92.20
1.1%
0%
9.55




Sentry Tournament of Champions

Happy New Year to all, may I wish you a year of wealth, health, happiness and winners.

Well, here we go again, the first event of the year, the Sentry Tournament of Champions. 34 of last years winners are in attendance. Rose, Woods and Mickelson the only no shows of the 37 exempt.

These days it's only a short break over the festive season. Initially its pleasant to not have the work to do, but one soon gets the craving for competitive golf action again and this is always a fun event.

It can get windy up on the Plantation Course at Kapalua. It is exposed and the forecast suggests winds of 30-35 mph for the first three days dropping to 20 mph on Sunday. Similar conditions to last year when Dustin Johnson's winning score hit 24 under par. This is attainable as the course is designed with the wind in mind. It has big wide fairways and massive greens. It is also a resort course so must be playable for all. With less wind this event has been won twice with scores better than -30.

So, to win this week a player must deal with the wind. What else? Well, let's work backwards. The winner needs to get to -20 or better so you have to be aggressive and make putts. Making putts is not easy as these are grainy, bermuda greens that max out at 10 on the stimp, pop putters will appreciate, long slow strokers won't enjoy the surface or the wind. Nobody usually holes long ones here. DJ had 38 putts outside of 10ft last year and made just 3. His longest was a 15ft conversion. So, you have to be a great iron player to have the ability to hit it close enough to make birdies. There are 4 par 5s and three par 3s on this par 73, DJ averaged just 94 yards into the par 4s last year this is where he separated himself. The par 5s are gettable for all.

The profile is preferably a long hitter, a very good iron player who is capable of going deep.

The hardest factor to calculate here is how active a player has been over the last couple of months. Some may have taken a long(ish) break and could use this week to dust the cobwebs off the clubs and to sharpen up for the coming year. Some may be testing new equipment for the first time. Others will have been working hard. DJ, for example, used to come out to this event a week early and work hard on his game in the warm conditions. This information is not always easy to find.

At first glance Bubba looks like a player that matches the profile. Long, great iron player, will enjoy the width and his putting won't disadvantage him so much. He has gone fairly well here with his best a 4th in 2013, but I don't like him in the wind and his price is short. I would be nearer 50/1 than 35/1.

DJ is the obvious pick and certainly the most likely winner and with 2 wins in 8 starts here he is easy to back. 11/2 is the correct price so not for me. Brooks Koepka? Well, he is capable of anything but my guess is he will have enjoyed the off course temptations of the festive season more than most. 10/1 is there, I would be 17/2, but hard to have confidence in him, despite his need for a good week to remain at number one. He finished 34th last year.

I don't fancy Rory on debut and he looks priced correctly at 11/1, Thomas' putting strength may be negated a little here but does have a win here in 3 starts. 21st and 22nd his other two finishes. Day struggles in the wind but has 3 top 10s in 4 starts and Rahm's price is too short at 15/2 despite winning Tiger's event impressively a month ago and finishing 2nd here last year. Reed (16-1-2-6 in his 4 starts here), Leishman (great wind player but on debut) and Simpson (underrated player who finished 3-11-3 on his 3 starts (last in 2014)) could all go well at decent prices but I am going to go with Paul Casey.

He has had a decent break, but should be motivated after another solid season and an excellent Ryder Cup. He debuts in the TOC (9 players do) but should enjoy the week (the players get pampered and great location). I have Casey at 20/1, he hits his irons as good as anyone, and 35/1 is freely available. He is one of the most consistent players and can get his year off to a winning start and the more wind, the better for him.



To Win

0.25 units Paul Casey @ 35/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

1 units Paul Casey @ 13/2 (-1)

Top 10

2 units Paul Casey @ 9/4 (-2)


Top 20


2.5 units Paul Casey @ 4/9 (+1.1)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

2.5 units Paul Casey to beat Aaron Wise @ 4/5 (+2)
2.5 units Matt Kuchar to beat Billy Horschel @ 10/11 (+2.28)





This week's P&L = +1.13
This week’s investment = 10.75 units


This week's Outright P&L = -2.15 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 5.75 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +3.28 units
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 7 units



2019 Total P&L = +1.13 units

2019 Total Investment = 10.75 unites

2019 Outright Bets P&L = -2.15 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 5.75 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +3.28 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 7 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks as 0.25 to 2.5 units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • 2.5 units - 2.5% of bankroll

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