UA-33754892-1 Archives for 29 September 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Spanish Open and Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Spanish Open - In running (after round 1)

0.25 units Gaganjeet Bhullar @ 90/1 (-0.25)


Spanish Open

Finding someone to beat the top three in the betting is quite a challenge. You could argue Rahm (3/1) who defends here looked frustrated on the greens last week at the Dunhill, but it is very hard to see past him. He is the most likely for sure and that price is about right. I have him at 7/2.

Garcia at 6/1 is hard to side with as you never know what you're going to get with him or his putter. Club Du Campo sets up very well for him. Tight from the tee where good accurate driving is rewarded, you need to shape it both ways and we know he loves Madrid. He also won last time out at the KLM Open. I would be 12/1, so not for me.

Cabrera Bello makes up the 'big three'. 12/1 seems a little short for a player who does not win often, I would be nearer 16/1 and the small greens here will mean his average to weak short game will be tested more than usual.

I like Justin Harding at 66/1 to take them on with. This may seem strange to some as he is coming off 3 straight missed cuts but we have seen throughout the season he is capable of running flat for a few weeks before bouncing back.

One has to remember this is a player ranked 60th in the world, the champion in Qatar and a 12th place finisher in The Masters playing in a very weak field, bar the top handful. He simply shouldn't be 66/1.

We can forgive his missed cuts as the disappointment of missing out on a PGA Tour card by the smallest of margins must have deflated him. He had to wait to the final putt of the Korn Ferry Tour Champs to decide his fate. Someone not in contention hitting a 6 foot putt that didn't matter to him, but meant an awful lot to Justin.

Harding owns one of the best short games on Tour which will stand him in good stead here. Add to this his love for grainy greens, which Club du Campo has, and his rank of 14th in putting, his aggressive iron play and above average driving means the South African who ranks 10th in overall Strokes Gained Scoring could have a bounce back, big week.

Elsewhere, watch out for Spanish Amateur Victor Pastor. He finished 12th in last years Spanish Open and although he hasn't had a great year by his standards, he could go well again. 1000/1 to win, 250/1 a top 5; I will settle for 33/1 a top 20, I would be 10/1.

I will also add Jack Singh Bear into the staking plan. He has also been struggling of late and needs a big few weeks to keep his card. His strength is accuracy from the tee, which is not rewarded as much as it should be on Tour these days. Club Du Campo is an old, clever design covered with cork trees. Position from the tee is preferred to power, without question.

He proved his quality on the Challenge Tour last year and finishes of 14th in the Czech Open and 15th in Sergio's Andalusian Open at Valderrama show he is more than capable of getting in the top 20 when courses suit and fields aren't at their strongest. 5/1 a top 20, I would be 7/2.


To Win

0.25 units Justin Harding @ 66/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.5 units Justin Harding @ 11/1 (-0.5)

Top 10

1 unit Justin Harding @ 11/2 (+5.5)

Top 20

1.25 units Jack Singh Bear @ 5/1 (-1.25)
0.75 units Victor Pastor @ 33/1 (-0.75)



Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

In Las Vegas I like Webb Simpson at 22/1. He won here in 2013 and was 4th in 2010 and 2014.

Last year he ranked 20th in strokes gained tee to green, 14th in approach, 20th in scrambling and 11th in putting. He has the weapons to keep up with what is always a very low scoring event.

The only concern is he is going into this off a six week break. Even so, there is just an awful lot to like about a very good player who has won on the course.

Elsewhere, I like Keith Mitchell to return to form after a much needed break. 14/1 about a top 10 is fair. I would be 10/1. He is a very good player at his best.

Kurt Kitayama looks undervalued in every market. I don't understand how the American is so under the radar after finishes of 21st in the KLM and 14th at the BMW PGA. With more room from the tee here, which suits him, he can't be 9/1 for a top 20, I would be 4/1


To Win

0.25 units Webb Simpson @ 22/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

1 unit Webb Simpson @ 5/1 (-1)

Top 10

0.25 units Keith Mitchell @ 14/1 (-0.25)

Top 20

1 unit Kurt Kitayama @ 9/1 (-1)



This week's P&L =  0 units
This week’s investment = 6.5 units


This week's Outright P&L = +0.25 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 6.25 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -0.25 units
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 0.25 units



2019 Total P&L = +46.22 units

2019 Total Investment = 638.58 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +24 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 508 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +21.97 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 133.23 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • • • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • • • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • • • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • • • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • • • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • • • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • • • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • • • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • • • ETC.


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