UA-33754892-1 Archives for 29 May 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Memorial Tournament and Welsh Open

The last few weeks have been frustrating. Keeping Toms onside throughout the year and losing faith just as he catches fire hurts. Picking players who seem to finish top 20 every week and not getting paid for it hurts. Giving back a bit of our profit hurts. Ok so lets stop the hurting this week.

The quickest way to stop the hurt is to avoid the Wales Open. I have not got a clue. Probably a good iron player who hits it long, at 7500 yards and a par 71 you will need to be able to get it out there! But really I have no guesses. There are some decent players finding some form. Edfors probably stands out as the best bet at 50/1. McDowell is definitely more of a lay at 12/1 than a bet. Edfors is tempting for an interest, he played well at Wentworth and thrives at this time of year and the course suits. Hmmmm maybe I will be tempted.

The Memorial has a better look to it. It has been wet in Ohio and the course will play long and the rough may well be up. Driving will be at a premium which is unusual for a Nicklaus course but the greens will still be their traditionally slick speed, expected to be 13 on the stimp. A strong field is in place and my shortlist consists of Mickelson, Rose, Couch, Haas, Watney, Kuchar, Simpson and Mahan.

It feels like I could back Watney, Kuchar and Mahan every week. They are such good players and can win any week on any golf course. Their games are so rounded, complete and consistent. However, they have already teased me into backing them at prices that are too short and that is a big reason why a chunk of the profits have disappeared. As I said I like all three of them but the key to showing a profit is value and backing these types of players at shorter than 25/1 is not a good idea. When they have one or two bad weeks their prices become backable eg Watney 40/1 in The Players Championship. This week Kuchar is 16/1, Watney 20/1 and Mahan 25/1. I am sure all three will be there or there abouts on Sunday but I will retain my discipline and leave them out this week.

The same has to be said for Mickelson. He has every chance but there is a lack of consistency issue that makes the 14/1 not very appealing. If Rose was 50/1 or bigger he would have been a bet. Rose defends and is playing better golf than his results show this year. Last year he phoned Dave Stockton for putting advice and won the next two weeks. After a few months he phoned him again and won again.....guess who he phoned this week? But like I said, 33/1 is too short.

Chris Couch is the first of my selections. He has not shown much recently but he has made 9 out of 9 cuts this year, 4 top 25’s and 3 top 10’s. He is 3rd in total driving and 11th in putting. He can go well this week at 150/1.

Bill Haas is another who has gone quiet since his fourth place finish in the Wells Fargo. 5th in greens in regulation and 17th in total driving shows he fits the BILL (excuse the poor joke!) But if Bill does finds his touch on the bent grass greens he has the ability to make 50/1 look a good price.

Two second place finishes for Webb Simpson this season. Again a little quiet the last few weeks but 80/1 about a player 15th on the money list looks a good price. He is also 13th in greens, 11th in scoring and 2nd in the all round ranking. Take the 80/1.

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The Memorial Tournament

1.5pts each way Chris Couch @ 150/1
1 pt each way Webb Simpson @ 80/1
1pt each way Bill Haas @ 50/1

Saab Wales Open

1.5 pts each way Johan Edfors @ 50/1

Special Bet

1pt treble D Johnson to bt Mcilroy @ Evs, Jimenez to bt Dyson @ 4/5 (72 hole matches) and Rose top European @ 6/1

2011 running total +144.67 pts This weeks investment 13 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.


BMW Championship and Byron Nelson

Sorry, I could not upload the tips in advance. My laptop could not pick up the wifi in Guadeloupe. The email recipients got the following picks:

BMW PGA Championship
2 pts Lee Westwood @ 8/1
1pt Ernie Els ew @ 40/1
1pt Anthony Wall ew @ 100/1

Byron Nelson
2pts Nick Watney @ 14/1
1.5pts Sergio Garcia ew @ 28/1

Special Bet
1.5 pt each way double Westwood and Watney

Despite all performing well apart from Wall we somehow did not see a return. Very disappointing. We lost 14 points on the week on top of 9 last week. Our 2011 running total has taken a hit. We are now down to 144.67pts ahead or £1446.70 profit to a £10 stake.