UA-33754892-1 Archives for 29 June 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Open de France and The Greenbrier Classic

At the end of the first paragraph last week I wrote “It feels like we are going to get one soon” and fortunately, we did. We had Zanotti at 80/1 to win the BMW International and he obliged. He was mightily impressive, especially over the weekend, closing with a pair of 65s after a relatively slow start. He won in a four man playoff and that was perhaps the strangest thing of all. I obviously thought he could win at the start of the week but to see him up against the likes of Stenson and Cabrera Bello in the playoff, I almost wrote him off and started working out the place return. He had his nerve so well and holed some big pressure putts. He proved his class, thankfully!

We also got two others, Dyson and Jaidee, placed. They only missed the playoff by one but the places were diluted as they ended in a three way tie for fifth. In fact, the leaderboard the whole of Sunday was one of the most compact I have ever seen. Two late birdies from any one of 25 players could have seen them win.... nervy times indeed!

We won 33.12 points on the week and are now 17.98 points down for the year.

This week I am in Belgium and have an early tee off tomorrow morning so I will have to brief.

In the States I will be sitting out again. I wanted to back Bubba as he is my clear pick in a pretty weak event on my rankings but 16/1 isn’t too exciting and Jimmy Walker, the 12/1 favourite has three wins this year and incredible course form. Walker was 2nd on my list but is too short at 12/1. Todd (25/1), Na (28/1) and Bradley (33/1) would be next but again the prices are tight enough. The first bits of value are Steele at 50/1 and Ben Martin at 45/1 but they are too far down the list to be backed. So, amazingly, for the third week in a row I won’t be betting in the States.

In France I would be very happy to lay Kaymer at 9/1 despite his impressive course and recent form. I think McDowell, Francesco Molinari and Donaldson are huge threats. However, none of them are at prices I want to be on in a competitive heat. Instead I am going to take some value lower down. Richard Green looks a decent price considering his form here and his 62 last week. He has played well the last few months after a hefty slump. However, I think, even if he got in the mix he still may not get it done on Sunday, but I am going to have a little play on him to be first round leader at 66/1.

I am also going to be with Marcel Siem at 40/1. He has started to prove himself more and more on the big stage. He plays with no fear and when he avoids the big numbers gets in contention, like most players, but he makes more big ones than most through his relentless aggression. He won this two years ago and with three top 20’s in his last four starts looks worth an interest.

Eduardo De La Riva looks backable at 100/1. The Spaniard finished 7th a month ago in Austria and showed some form early on in the season. He is coming off two missed cuts the last two weeks but finished third here last year. Worth a pop at the price.

Finally a rank outsider in the form of Mikko Korhonen at 250/1. The Finn has never had a top 3 on the European or Challenge Tour but is a steady performer. He only has €66k up this year, so why back him? Players who come out of Tour School have a decent record in this event. There have been a number of indifferent winners at Paris National, the cream hasn’t always won. Korhonen has come through Tour School 3 out of the last 4 years and did post three top 10s last year. He can play and is worth a sceptical punt this week when there is not a lot that stands out.

The Greenbrier Classic

No bets

Open de France

1 point each way Marcel Siem @ 40/1
(-2 points)
0.5 points each way Eduardo De La Riva @ 100/1
(-1 point)
0.25 points each way Mikko Korhonen @ 250/1
(-0.5 points)

Special Bets

0.75 points each way Richard Green to be first round leader @ 66/1 (-1.5 points)
0.5 points Mikko Korhonen to finish top 10 @ 22/1 (-0.5 points)
3 points Graeme McDowell to beat Martin Kaymer @ 11/10. 72 hole match bet
(+3.3 points)

2014 running total =  -17.98 points. This week’s investment 8.5 points. This weeks P&L = -2.2 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points