UA-33754892-1 Archives for 29 July 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC - Bridgestone Invitational

It was a wise choice to sit out last week. I liked Bo Van Pelt but his bogey-par-bogey finish kept him out of a place which would have been gutting considering the amount of times we have backed him this year! We saved our money for a great looking tournament in Ohio this week.

Firestone CC is a par 70 at 7400 yards! That would be kinda off putting for me but for a field of this quality it looks set up perfectly. The weather has been baking in Ohio over the last few weeks bar one heavy shower. This means the rough may not be quite as thick as previous years and with the greens firmer it is definitely favouring the longer hitters. The greens will be running at 13 and have a bit of slope to them and although the scoring will go deep (Scott won on -17 last year) it is not a course to be overly aggressive on. It is a ball strikers venue. The four past winners in the field show you this. Mahan, Woods, Clarke and Scott. However, it is ball striker that obviously get their putters hot for the week.

It is disappointing that Webb Simpson is not in the field as this looks right up his street but for me I like
Woods, Kuchar, Senden, Rose, Zach Johnson, Bradley, Westwood, Bo Van Pelt, Bubba Watson, Crane and Dufner.

There are a couple of others too at big prices.
Quiros looks big at 250/1 and although drastically out of form this course will suit. Toms 100/1 finished 9th here last year but this year has struggled with the putter. It is tempting to go with players like this as if they click their prices are huge but in a field with this strength you need to be on your ‘A’ game.

Kuchar (35/1) comes into this off his worst finish in 8 events, 34th in Canada last week. He has a 9th and a 19th in his last two trips here so he handles the course. Mind you there are not many courses that don’t suit this versatile player. 18th in greens in regulation, the ability to move the ball both ways and a streaky putter shows he can go well but for me 35/1 is about right and I am not sure if he has the ‘big weapons’ to take it deep for four days around here.

Rose was disappointing in The Open, well at least his first 9 holes. He ranks 23rd in driving accuracy, 4th in greens but a lowly 134th in putting which is off-putting. 33rd and 19th here the last two years, when a lesser player, but makes the 33/1 on offer look a little short.

The course should set up perfectly for
John Senden. He is so impressive tee to green. 90/1 looks nice as well but 133rd in putting makes it look difficult for him to go low enough to win this, so, begrudgingly is passed over.

Bubba Watson, hmmm Bubba Watson. Tough one to try and guess whats going to come this week. He has been hit and miss since the Masters. He obviously can win this if near his best. The course should be perfect, especially as not as penal as previous years. He is number one in driving distance and greens in regulation, 2nd in birdies, 3rd in eagles. He also leads greens in regulation from off the fairway. The only concern, once again, is his putting. A lowly 148th. This is in part due to the fact he hits so many greens but the other part is he is not a great putter. He led after round one here in 2010 after posting a 64 but only offers a pair of top 25’s here in form. If he were 50/1 he would be a bet but one feels there is just too many questions to back him at 33/1.

I fancy
Lee Westwood to have a big week. We all know how impressive his ball striking is and if he putts well he will have a great chance to win. However, he struggles to get across the line in big events and did not look great at The Open, admitting that he had been struggling with his swing. At 20/1 he is approaching win only prices and nobody can think that is a wise play at the moment.

Bo Van Pelt, yeap, he is getting backed again and why not? Look at his credentials and how do you leave him out? 7 top 10’s this season in 18 starts which include an injury withdrawal and a MC at The Open, which was never going to suit. 4th in total driving, 31st in greens and 9th in putting, a great combination of stats. Top 25’s the last 2 years at Firestone including a 3rd in 2010, so the form is there. 40/1 seems very fair to me based on these facts. BVP once again earns a place in the staking plan.

Ben Crane is an interesting runner this week. 125/1 is a big price about him despite not having any recent solid course form. He finished 13th last time out in the John Deere shooting 3 winning rounds and an appalling 73 in round 3. Since finishing 2nd in Phoenix, which was his 3rd top 10 in 3 starts, he has played well but keeps throwing in one shocking round in per tournament. This is not like him and a short break may have done him good. He ranks 3rd in par breakers despite his conservative style and the rest of his stats are solid. A small each way play looks worth while.

Dufner continues to have a great season. His last 6 events he has finished 1st, 68th, 1st, 2nd, 4th and 31st. He debuts at Firestone this week. Although ranking 6th in greens, 5th in par breakers, 4th in scoring and his great recent form I just don’t really fancy him this week. 28/1 is an ok price but on debut, in a big event and ranking 103rd in putting just not for me.

Zach Johnson is 30/1. His form at Firestone reads 22nd, 17th, 36th, 11th, 16th, 15th, 33rd, 6th. His recent form reads 2nd, 69th, 2nd, 1st, MC, 41st, 64th, 1st, 9th. He leads the tour in putting and is 4th in par breakers. Despite all this he is not the longest hitter and looks vulnerable from a price that looks about right.

Keegan Bradley has been under performing the last few weeks. His stats remain strong. 16th in driving distance, 6th in par breakers, 10th in total driving and 1st in the all round. 66/1 is a nice price considering he finished 15th here last year on debut with a closing 74. I think he is worth a go this week on a course that appears perfect for him.

Woods is the man to beat. He has won here an incredible 7 times! The last 2 years were horrific but he is focused and fit again now. He is 4th in total driving, 1st in scoring, 19th in greens in reg, 21st in putting and 30th in driving accuracy. You have to think if he drives it good he wins but will still be glad to see the rough down. He loves this place, he is the best player in the field. I wanted to see 13/2, the 11/2 has gone but I still think 5/1 in a limited field is worth a play.

Scott, Mahan and Mcilroy had to be worth a look too. Scott, the defending champ will have to show a lot of character to bounce back from his Open Championship disappointment and he can do it, but it is a big question mark. Mahan made 4 doubles last week in Canada which is out of character and has not shown much form for too long. Mcilroy is in the same boat as Mahan, but swinging it worse. All three can bounce back and be right in the mix but all three have major question marks.

WGC - Bridgestone Invitational

5 pts win Tiger Woods @ 5/1
2 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 40/1
1 pt each way Keegan Bradley @ 66/1
0.5 pts each way Ben Crane @ 125/1

Specials

0.25 points each way Alvaro Quiros to be 1st round leader @ 175/1

2012 running total +146.23 points. This weeks investment 12.5 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

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Twitter: @jasonkellygolf


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