UA-33754892-1 Archives for 29 April 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Wells Fargo Championship

Here is how I see the Wells Fargo that starts tomorrow 7am Eastern Time, 11am GMT.

There are a few that look valid bets. Rickie Fowler looks a good thing on a course he has winning form on and 12/1 is very fair. Jason Day also looks value at 22/1 although he is less consistent. Out of the players near the top of the market the one I will side with is Hideki Matsuyama. He should have won the USPGA here last year (Justin Thomas won) and 25/1 is very generous about the Japanese.

Further down Brooks Koepka looks interesting. He returned back from a wrist injury last week in the pairs event in New Orleans. I have no idea how to read that form but at least he had a run out and feels fit enough to go again this week. The course sets up well for him and he could be value at 60/1, although not one to go mad over.

We backed Francesco Molinari here for the USPGA and he finished 2nd. He is hugely consistent and is well worth having on side again at 80/1.

I think Ross Fisher is worth chancing too at 200/1. He has been in poor form since the WGC in Mexico a couple of months ago but he is too big at 200/1, I would have him nearer 80/1.


JK

Wells Fargo Championship


To Win


2.00 points Brooks Koepka @ 60/1 (-2)
2.00 points Ross Fisher @ 200/1 (-2)
2.00 points Hideki Matsuyama @ 25/1 (-2)
2.00 points Francesco Molinari @ 80/1 (-2)

Top 5


4.07 points Ross Fisher @ 40/1 (-4.07)
2.00 points Hudson Swafford @ 80/1 (-2)
2.00 points Stewart Cink @ 66/1 (-2)
7.02 points Brooks Koepka @ 12/1 (-7.02)

Top 10


5.09 points Ross Fisher @ 18/1 (-5.09)
4.41 points Martin Kaymer @ 18/1 (-4.41)
8.70 points Tyrrell Hatton @ 15/2 (-8.7)
2.00 points Hudson Swafford @ 33/1 (-2)

Top 20


13.65 points Ross Fisher @ 15/2 (-13.65)
3.59 points Rod Pampling @ 20/1 (-3.59)
8.33 points Martin Kaymer @ 15/2 (-8.33)
4.56 points JT Poston @ 12/1 (-4.56)
4.92 points Hudson Swafford @ 11/1 (-4.92)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

114.73 points Fowler to bt Thomas @ 5/6 (push)
118.00 points Simpson to bt Harman @ 4/5 (+94.40)



2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 932.89 points


This week's P&L = +16.06
This week’s investment = 311.07 points


This week's Outright P&L = -78.34 points
This weeks's Outright Investment =78.34 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +94.40 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 232.73 points



2018 Total P&L = -67.11

2018 Total Investment = 11915.01 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = +613.92
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 5409.32 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -680.96
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 6670.37 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.





Player
Imp %
Books
BF
My Price
My %
Diff
£100
To Lose
Ex. V
Rory McIlroy
11%
9.00

9
11%
0%
800
89%
-1.48
Justin Thomas
8%
12.00

12
8%
0%
1100
92%
-0.85
Rickie Fowler
8%
13.00

8
13%
6%
1200
87%
71.72
Patrick Reed
5%
21.00

21
5%
0%
2000
95%
-0.33
Jason Day
4%
23.00

13
7%
3%
2200
93%
71.51
Hideki Matsuyama
4%
26.00

12
8%
4%
2500
92%
113.67
Paul Casey
4%
26.00

18
6%
2%
2500
94%
47.27
Tommy Fleetwood
3%
29.00

21
5%
1%
2800
95%
39.01
Phil Mickelson
3%
29.00

29
3%
0%
2800
97%
0.33
Tiger Woods
3%
29.00

110
1%
-3%
2800
99%
-73.64
Louis Oosthuizen
2%
41.00

24
4%
2%
4000
96%
72.99
Webb Simpson
2%
41.00

43
2%
0%
4000
98%
-5.64
Tony Finau
2%
51.00

32
3%
1%
5000
97%
60.73
Kevin Kisner
2%
51.00

53
2%
0%
5000
98%
-2.98
Alex Noren
2%
51.00

55
2%
0%
5000
98%
-7.06
Ryan Moore
2%
51.00

69
1%
-1%
5000
99%
-25.81
Brooks Koepka
2%
61.00

24
4%
3%
6000
96%
156.56
Bryson DeChambeau
2%
61.00

250
0%
-1%
6000
100%
-75.57
Daniel Berger
1%
67.00

67
1%
0%
6600
99%
-0.50
Brian Harman
1%
67.00

76
1%
0%
6600
99%
-11.31
Luke List
1%
67.00

144
1%
-1%
6600
99%
-53.49
Chesson Hadley
1%
67.00

220
0%
-1%
6600
100%
-69.53
Francesco Molinari
1%
81.00

40
2%
1%
8000
98%
100.33
Russell Henley
1%
81.00

44
2%
1%
8000
98%
84.14
Adam Hadwin
1%
81.00

52
2%
1%
8000
98%
56.47
Adam Scott
1%
81.00

56
2%
1%
8000
98%
45.32
Tyrrell Hatton
1%
81.00

58
2%
0%
8000
98%
38.49
Jason Dufner
1%
81.00

79
1%
0%
8000
99%
3.10
Gary Woodland
1%
81.00

102
1%
0%
8000
99%
-20.38
Emiliano Grillo
1%
81.00

105
1%
0%
8000
99%
-22.98
Kevin Streelman
1%
81.00

229
0%
-1%
8000
100%
-64.65
Jamie Lovemark
1%
101.00

100
1%
0%
10000
99%
0.63
Xander Schauffele
1%
101.00

106
1%
0%
10000
99%
-5.10
Beau Hossler
1%
101.00

115
1%
0%
10000
99%
-12.23
J.B. Holmes
1%
101.00

124
1%
0%
10000
99%
-18.29
Charles Howell III
1%
101.00

198
1%
0%
10000
99%
-49.08
Sean O'Hair
1%
101.00

410
0%
-1%
10000
100%
-75.34
Ben Martin
1%
101.00

488
0%
-1%
10000
100%
-79.29
Charl Schwartzel
1%
111.00

91
1%
0%
11000
99%
22.24
Dylan Frittelli
1%
111.00

129
1%
0%
11000
99%
-13.77
Keegan Bradley
1%
111.00

133
1%
0%
11000
99%
-16.59
Ollie Schniederjans
1%
111.00

155
1%
0%
11000
99%
-28.50
Kyle Stanley
1%
111.00

241
0%
0%
11000
100%
-54.04
Byeong Hun An
1%
126.00

73
1%
1%
12500
99%
71.63
Lucas Glover
1%
126.00

121
1%
0%
12500
99%
4.50
Grayson Murray
1%
126.00

151
1%
0%
12500
99%
-16.37
Bill Haas
1%
126.00

158
1%
0%
12500
99%
-20.26
Andrew Landry
1%
126.00

176
1%
0%
12500
99%
-28.24
Shane Lowry
1%
126.00

186
1%
0%
12500
99%
-32.44
Bud Cauley
1%
126.00

229
0%
0%
12500
100%
-45.04
James Hahn
1%
126.00

362
0%
-1%
12500
100%
-65.19
Joaquin Niemann(am)
1%
126.00

4473
0%
-1%
12500
100%
-97.18
Trey Mullinax
1%
151.00

155
1%
0%
15000
99%
-2.66
Austin Cook
1%
151.00

374
0%
0%
15000
100%
-59.58
Sam Burns
1%
151.00

5389
0%
-1%
15000
100%
-97.20
Jason Kokrak
1%
176.00

162
1%
0%
17500
99%
8.73
Rory Sabbatini
1%
176.00

363
0%
0%
17500
100%
-51.49
Ross Fisher
0%
201.00

78
1%
1%
20000
99%
158.77
Peter Uihlein
0%
201.00

138
1%
0%
20000
99%
45.15
Martin Kaymer
0%
201.00

167
1%
0%
20000
99%
20.71
Nick Watney
0%
201.00

279
0%
0%
20000
100%
-28.04
Graeme McDowell
0%
201.00

317
0%
0%
20000
100%
-36.55
Patton Kizzire
0%
201.00

694
0%
0%
20000
100%
-71.03
Patrick Rodgers
0%
201.00

1732
0%
0%
20000
100%
-88.39
Jhonattan Vegas
0%
251.00

164
1%
0%
25000
99%
53.35
Keith Mitchell
0%
251.00

213
0%
0%
25000
100%
17.72
Andrew Putnam
0%
251.00

217
0%
0%
25000
100%
15.82
Stewart Cink
0%
251.00

389
0%
0%
25000
100%
-35.42
Scott Brown
0%
251.00

399
0%
0%
25000
100%
-37.02
Aaron Wise
0%
251.00

401
0%
0%
25000
100%
-37.38
Danny Lee
0%
251.00

447
0%
0%
25000
100%
-43.83
Kevin Tway
0%
251.00

489
0%
0%
25000
100%
-48.68

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