UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 September 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is a tough event to bet on for a number of reasons. Firstly it is one of the biggest fields of the year, it’s also played over three courses which means the temperamental Scottish coastal weather can have an even bigger effect than usual. One wouldn’t want to play Carnoustie on a windy, wet, cold day when others are at the much more lenient St. Andrews. Add to the mix that there are two amateurs in every group plus a number of the favourites were on Ryder Cup duty last week and are entitled to be a little jaded. A lot to think about.

So, my answer to these obstacles, find some value amongst experienced, rested players and there appears to be a fair bit of this value around.

I have come up with four that I am going to back this week. Ernie Els and Graeme Storm made the shortlist but were regrettably left out.

I like Bernd Wiesberger at 50/1. He is a proven player and has finished in the top 15 four times in his last 5 starts. He also finished 12th here last year and looks well worth keeping on side.

At 66/1 I am going to back Richie Ramsay. He talked in depth last year about his passion for winning in Scotland and how much this event means to him. It was a speech which was recited again pre Scottish Open. Perhaps the added pressure he places on himself accounts for poor form figures over the past four years here, mc-39-mc-33 but back in 2009 he did finish 4th. More importantly to me is his excellent recent form. In his last four starts he has finished 4-8-9-17. He finished 8th in Switzerland where he was leading after round one and two. In Holland he finished 9th after lying in 2nd going into the final round. He appears ready for another big performance and he would love to finally convert, especially on home soil.

Ricardo Gonzalez gets in the staking plan purely based on the horses for courses theory. Which is impressive as they play three here. But his form at the Dunhill Links since 2009 reads 9-41-dnp-13-7. He has nothing of any real note recently apart from a couple of top 25s in his last 3 starts but he looks worth a play at 150/1.

Lee Slattery looks a huge price to me. He finished 5th here two years ago and bounced back to form in the Czech Masters five weeks ago, where he was lying 3rd after 36 holes before slipping back to finish 30th. He backed this performance up with a couple of top 10s in Italy and Switzerland. He looks well worth an interest at 200/1.

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

0.75 points each way Richie Ramsay @ 66/1
(+11.63 points)
1 point each way Bernd Wiesberger @ 50/1
(-2 pts)
0.5 points each way Ricardo Gonzalez @ 150/1
(-1 pt)
0.75 points each way Lee Slattery @ 200/1
(-1.5 pts)

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Specials

0.5 points each way Lee Slattery to be top Englishman @ 50/1 (-1 pt)

2014 running total =  -41.9 points. This week’s investment so far 7 points. This weeks P&L = +6.13 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.