UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 October 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Turkish Airlines Open and Shriners Hospitals Open

Shriners Hospital Open - In Running after round 3

1 point Lucas Glover @ 11 (-1)
0.4 points Patrick Cantlay @ 7.5 (-0.4)

Shriners Hospital Open - In Running after round 2

0.5 points Peter Uihlein @ 5.5 (-0.5)
0.4 points Rickie Fowler @ 21 (-0.4)
0.25 points Jordan Spieth @ 11 (-0.25)

Turkish Airlines Open - In running after round 2

0.5 points Justin Rose @ 1.91 (+0.46)
0.4 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 15 (-0.4)

Turkish Airlines Open - In running after round 1

0.5 points Justin Rose @ 3.25 (+1.63)
0.4 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 17 (-0.4)
0.25 points Lee Westwood @ 29 (-0.25)

Turkish Airlines Open

A disappointing event. When looking at the European Tour's Rolex Series events this shows why they are not really working and why, frankly, the European Tour isn't working. Rory is missing, Francesco is missing, Hatton, Garcia, Oosthuizen, Pepperell, Rahm, Noren, Reed, Rafa Cabrera Bello etc all missing. But there are three Turkish invites to make up for this loss. Three other fully exempt European Tour players sit at home watching the invites shoot big numbers in a big money event they should be playing. Only 70 players play for the €7m prize fund. Hopefully Turkey will pay, unlike Italy, so I am told.

The weakness in the field leaves Rose and Fleetwood as pretty solid bets. They are a class apart and between them they win over 40% of my simulations. At 9/2 and 8/1 the bookies suggest one of the two would win 29% of the time. I am happy to back them both.

For an interest at a bigger price I think you could do worse than backing Shabhankar Sharma at 150/1 (200 on Betfair).

To Win

0.4 points Justin Rose @ 5.5 (+2.2)
0.4 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 9 (-0.4)
0.25 points Shabhankar Sharma @ 151 (-0.25)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

0.48 points Andy Sullivan to beat Jordan L Smith @ 1.83 (+0.4)

Shriners Hospitals Open

Patrick Cantlay was victorious when posting -9 and winning in a playoff at TPC Summerlin last year. Despite an extensive, 6 month upgrade it is likely the winning score will go lower. Bunkers have been moved to add to course strategy but the distance remains unchanged at 7255 yards. The scoring is likely to be better as the strong winds that troubled the players last year is not forecast for this week.

This has attracted a better field than Turkey. Finau, Fowler, Spieth, Dechambeau, Simpson, Cantlay, Woodland and last week's winner, Cameron Champ headline. I am all about Fowler at 12/1 here. He finished the playoffs well when coming back from injury to post two top 10s and finished inside the top 25 in his 3 visits here since 2009. I would be nearer 5/1.

Many of the market leaders here offer value but none more than Fowler. I am going to go further down the market for my only other bet. I am going to make a small play on Russell Henley at 80/1, I would have him nearer 33/1 and he should enjoy the large bent grass greens here.

To Win

1 point Rickie Fowler @ 13 (-1)
0.25 points Russell Henley @ 81 (-0.25)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

1.81 points Joaquin Niemann to beat Burns @ 1.83 (+1.5)
0.55 points Gary Woodland to beat Dechambeau @ 1.91 (-0.55)
0.6 points Kevin Na to beat Andrew Putnam @ 1.83 (push)
1 point Cameron Champ to beat Wise @ 2 (-1)
1.2 point Sung-Jae Im to beat Siwoo Kim @ 1.83 (push)

This week's P&L = -0.86
This week’s investment = 7.38 points

This week's Outright P&L = +0.3
This weeks's Outright Investment = 2.3 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -1.16 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 5.08 points

2018 Total P&L =  -105.34 points

2018 Total Investment = 1878.57 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
-33.68 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 890.29 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -72.23 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 989.67 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan.  Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.  

It is important to focus on bet size.  It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.  

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide.  So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection.  Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year.  The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account.  This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more.  Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones.  It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated.  The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested.  The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 

Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 

Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.