UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 October 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC - HSBC Champions

Tough week last week. It really looked like Louis Oosthuizen and Brendon De Jonge were going to line our pockets but they came up a little short. Louis had a good week in China without ever moving through the gears and ended up in 6th, just missing out on an each way return by a shot. De Jonge was always in the mix in Malaysia and ended in a tie for 4th with two others. With most bookies only playing out four places (ApolloBet were 5 places) the returns were once again diluted substantially. De Jonge made us 3.25 points, but overall we lost -7.25 points on the week meaning our yearly total contracts to +189.36 in profit, or £1893.60 to a £10 stake.

This week is the HSBC Champions event at China’s massive Mission Hills Resort. The Olazabal course is one of twelve courses at the resort and is chosen to host the 8th renewal of the HSBC. This course hosted the World Cup of Golf from 2007 to 2009. The par 72 has five par 5s and five par 3s and measures in at 7320 yards. The protection comes from heavy bunkering and small greens, averaging just 5700 square feet. The emphasis will be on course management and accurate iron play although the longer hitters will enjoy the benefits of the five par 5s.

This is a strange event in my eyes. It is a WGC event but nobody seems very bothered about it. A load of players who were in China or Malaysia last week are not playing and the money does not count on the PGA Tour money list. Presumably the lack of appearance fees is the main issue and the $7 million purse just does not appeal. I would always expect to see the strongest field possible for any WGC event, but I guess it needs to be run like one to truly be one, and this leaves the HSBC feeling very flt compared to other WGCs.

Anyway, this makes
Luke Donald the 10/1 favourite which looks like a bad price to me. Rose is fairer at 14/1, as is Dustin Johnson at 18/1. The 20/1 about Ian Poulter is just a terrible, terrible price. I rate Oosthuizen 20/1, Senden 33/1, Petterson 33/1, Garrigus 33/1 and Piercy 40/1 as players with good chances, at about the right prices.

The two players I like are
Jason Dufner and Keegan Bradley. Dufner finished second in Perth two weeks ago and went off at 8/1 last week in an event with Woods in the field. 25/1 seems like a huge price about him here. He is in better form than any of the 9 players ahead of him in the betting and has been consistently better all year. This is a price you would struggle get in a top class, full field, US Tour event so I am not sure why it is on offer here. Last week he shot 68-72-64-67 and had an 8 on a par 3 on day 2. Tee to green he is the best in this field, his accurate irons will be rewarded and he normally plays well 3 or 4 events into a run, which is where he is at now. He also has no issue with time differences which others in the field may have to adjust to. Take the 25/1.

Keegan Bradley has been a little in and out of late. In the Grand Slam of Golf two weeks ago he made some big numbers on the front nine on day 1 but he bounced back to close with a 67. Again, his long game is world class and he makes a lot of birdies. He ranks 2nd in par 3 scoring and 5th in par 5 scoring which bodes well. As long as he manages his mistakes, and minimises them, I expect him to go close this week at a generous 30/1.

The other two bets that interest me are two 72 hole match bets, both taking on
Poulter. One is with Tote Sport/Betfred and is with Jason Dufner at Evs to beat Poulter. The other is with William Hill and Victor Chandler and is with Louis Oosthuizen, again at Evs, to beat Poulter. Poulter played ok last week, getting better each round, and played well at the Ryder Cup but don’t be sucked in by the hype. Yes, he has good form in Asia but his stroke play tournament record this year is very poor and for him to be matched up against Louis and Dufner is almost offensive to them, let alone make him favourite over them. Compare their seasons, compare their recent form, compare their stats, compare anything and it would take a special effort to suggest Poulter can beat these two more than half the time. Dufner beats, and apart from putting which is close, thrashes him in every major stat category. Of course Poulter has the ability to do well here, but the other two are much better players and beat him nearly every week.

(If you do not have accounts with the bookies pricing these two matches up then just ask your bookmaker to lay you the bet, normally they will be happy to. If not consider opening account with ApolloBet or Geoff Banks who look after their clients better than the bigger corporations.)

WGC - HSBC Champions

2 pts each way Jason Dufner @ 25/1
1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 30/1


3.5 pts Jason Dufner to beat Ian Poulter @ Evs. 72 hole matchbet.
3.5 pts Louis Oosthuizen to beat Ian Poutler @ Evs. 72 hole matchbet.

2012 running total +189.36 points. This weeks investment 14 points. This week’s P&L = +0.5 pts.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.