UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 May 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Memorial, Nordea Masters, Rex Hospital Open

The Memorial Tournament

Very hard to see past Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm for Jack's event. Muirfield Village is fairly long at 7392 yards but it is a typical Nicklaus course, lenient from the tee and then the game starts. The greens are small and last years field averaged just 11.85 greens per round. Dustin and Rahm are both long and excellent iron players. This gives them a significant advantage in trying to find the ledges where the pins will be tucked. DJ edges Rahm through experience and he is also a better putter than the Spaniard. 6/1 and 12/1 does not make them attractive betting propositions by themselves, but they are worth keeping onside for some cross doubles with Europe. I would be amazed if at least one of them did not place.

Further down I think it may be worth keeping the veteran Steve Stricker on side. 7th last week at Colonial with a couple of top 3s on the Champions Tour shows he is in form and he is playing more golf now than he has for years. He won here in 2011 and finished 6th in 2014. The putting Master will love the fast undulating greens and can get back in the mix here.

Peter Uihlein has not missed a cut this year and he has played all over the world. 7th in the SA Open, 5th in Dubai, 4th in the Tshwane Open and 5th in Puerto Rico are the stand out results. This is a really nice fit for him. He is long and knows how to post low numbers. Muirfield Village has a history of providing players with their first wins, let's hope Peter can be the man to continue this pattern at 150/1.

Benny An at 55/1 is worth a go too. He missed the cut here as an amateur in 2010 but placed 11th last year on his professional debut in the event. Pair that up with his last three starts, 8th in the Wells Fargo, 5th in the Byron Nelson and 24th in the BMW PGA last week (where he had a bad weekend) and you can see why he is worth backing. The course suits and he should go well again.

One that could outrun his price is Ryan Ruffels. He has been playing some great stuff on the Latin America Tour (5 top 10s in 9 starts), which clearly is a long way below this but he is proven at this level too. In fact he finished 37th here last year and 20th the week before that in the Zurich (when it was still a golf tournament). Anyway, he was 2nd last time out, is obviously playing well, has a lot of ability and will relish the chance to change his career path in this small field. 250/1 is worth a small play.

Nordea Masters

This has a very similar feel to The Memorial, two players up the top of the betting who will be very hard to beat. Stenson and Noren. I am very happy to pair these two up with DJ and Rahm in some cross doubles.

Peter Hanson could be one player that can challenge them. 3rd and 30th in 2012 and 2013 when the Nordea was played at Bro Hof Slott and a missed cut last year when out of form. This year he's finished 8th in Abu Dhabi and 18th in Qatar and then been a little quiet, but he showed some good form last week at Wentworth after a break. 50/1 looks fair to me.

Apart from the Swede I can't get too excited about many others. I think Shiv Kapur is maybe fractionally overpriced. His debut at Bro Hof Slott in 2011 he opened up 70-66 before closing 78-80 to finish 40th. More importantly he has finished 1st and 2nd on his last two starts in Asia. If the weather stays fair he can go well.

The last two picks are really small investments for very nice potential profit. I played with a really good player a couple of weeks ago at US Open Qualifying. He shot a bogey free 67 and it was the easiest 5 under you will ever see. He turned pro after the NCAAs last year where he went 5-0, the only other player to 100% it through the matchplay is Patrick Reed. He can play. So far his pro form has been a horror show. He played Zurich last year and missed the cut, the same result in the RSM and Valspar. On the he has had 4 starts, missed 3 cuts and where he did make a cheque it was for last after closing 80-79. Doesn't sound great, but this guy is good. This may not be his week but as long as he is a 4 figure price I am happy to chance him.

Adrien Bernadet is my last pick. He is also a four figure price but has played great on mini tours this year. He could be a back to lay, but I am happy to have a very small punt on the chance he can maintain his form at a higher level.

The Memorial - Outright

1.25 points each way Steve Stricker @ 80/1 (-2.5)
0.67 points each way Peter Uihlein @ 150/1 (-1.34)
1.81 points each way Beyong Hun An @ 55/1 (-3.62)
0.4 points each way Ryan Ruffels @ 250/1 (-0.8)

Nordea Masters - Outright

2 points each way Peter Hanson @ 50/1 (-4)
0.67 points each way Shiv Kapur @ 150/1 (-1.34)
0.07 points each way Adrien Bernadet @ 1500/1 (-0.14)
0.1 point each way Zach Wright @ 1000/1 (-0.2)

Rex Hospitals Open

0.13 points each way Joshua Brock @ 750/1 (-0.26)
1 point each way Andrew Yun @ 100/1 (-2)
0.8 points each way Christian Brand @ 125/1 (-1.6)


1 point each way double
Henrik Stenson @ 5/1 and Jon Rahm @ 12/1
1 point each way double Henrik Stenson @ 5/1 and Dustin Johnson @ 6/1
1 point each way double
Alex Noren @ 8/1 and Jon Rahm @ 12/1
1 point each way double Alex Noren @ 8/1 and Dustin Johnson @ 6/1 (-8)

(Already Advised)

Antepost 2017 Season
4 points Rory McIlroy to win a Major in 2017 @ 2/1 (Bet Victor)

This week's P&L =
This week’s investment = 25.8 points

This week's Outright P&L =
This weeks's Outright Investment = 17.8 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -8
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 8 points

2017 Total P&L = -21.39
2017 Total Investment =  891.1 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  -104.42
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 433.84 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  +83.03
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 564.4 points

2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +469.87 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.