UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 June 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Greenbrier Classic and French Open

Our each way double on Stenson and Watson last week came close. Bubba won and Henrik finished 2nd. The each way double meant we showed a tiny profit on the week.

This week we have the Greenbrier Classic from White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia and the French Open from Paris National. They are two pretty good events with fair line ups. It does, however, always amaze me how relatively weak the French Open line up is year on year. It is a €3m event with a great history on a future Ryder Cup course and scheduled at the start of a great three tournament stretch which includes the Scottish and British Opens. It is the best run of events on the European Tour and yet the field remains surprisingly weak.

Francesco Molinari goes off the 14/1 favourite. He should be favourite as he brings the best form into this. He has three top 5s in his last 6 starts and also boasts two second place finishes here. His schedule has been demanding of late but his recent form meant he avoided Open Qualifying yesterday, his improved World Ranking meant he won his place alongside 5 others on Monday. This is important to his chances this week. To fly back from the States, play a gruelling 36 holes and then turn up in France would have been far from ideal preparation. Even with his recent form and course form I think he is fairly easy to take on at 14/1. He isn't a natural winner as he showed at the BMW PGA at Wentworth and The Memorial recently. He is a very good, solid player but he isn't a 14/1 shot in this field. Especially as he ranks 162nd in scrambling. Perhaps the reason why he struggles to close under pressure.

I like a few here. I like Emiliano Grillo at 40/1, Byeong Hun An at 33/1, Bernd Wiesberger at 33/1, Danny Willett at 28/1 and Maximilian Kieffer at 50/1.

The talented young Argentinian, Grillo, has been a little subdued after blowing up in the third round of the BMW at Wentworth. A 30th and 21st since isn't the worst bit of form but he was flying before that. He played a busy schedule at the start of the year and I think this 3 week break will have done him the world of good. His form here is poor. 23-MC-MC but he is a different player this year. That course form keeps his price attractive and he is too big at 40/1. He has a very solid all around and I would be surprised if he wasn't in the mix come Sunday.

Beyond Hun An comes here off the back of a disappointing US Open but does still boast being the most under par of any player on the European Tour this year, -81. He simply is a very classy player. If he has a weakness it is accuracy from the tee but this is not surprising with the distance he hits it. With the course playing firm and fast he won't be hitting many drivers. He debuts here but that is not a huge concern. 33/1 is very fair.

I am happy going into battle with these two. I think Wiesberger will go well, I think Willett is playing some pretty average stuff but his short game and putting are on fire which gives him a chance anywhere and I think Kieffer has become a very consistent performer who deserves respect every week, but has a poor record here. When I look at the prices I can back An and Grillo at, who I rate a fair bit ahead of these three, it makes their prices unappetising.

The Greenbrier seems to revolve around Bubba Watson. He played great last week. When you drive it as good as him (he gained 1.5 shots per round on the field last week from the tee) and you putt better than the average you become very difficult to beat. He has a home here and averages 68.5 on The Old White TPC. There is pretty much nothing not to like about his chances. He is full of confidence and is the best player in the field by some distance. 12/1 puts him in as a pretty clear favourite, next best is 25/1, but I still think there is plenty of value in that. I see him as a 7 or 8/1 chance. The only concern would be he plays good when travelling alone, this week his family are back with him. This week is seen as a relaxing, fun week for a lot of these players. It's a great place to be, hence Faldo makes this his home. I fear a little that Watson may see this as an off week. I still think he is worth betting though. He could rip this place apart.

I like Paul Casey too. He lost in a playoff to Watson last week and is pretty much back to his best. Tee to green he is very strong and few are hitting their approaches closer than the Englishman. He is creating plenty of chances but his putter is far from hot. On debut here and needing to make a lot of birdies makes the 25/1 look fairly tight.

Webb Simpson is a real horse for this course. He has three top 10s in his last four starts here. He is 25/1 like Casey and that's not the only trait they share. Webb is also incredibly good tee to green this year. He is a better scrambler than Casey but this year his putting is just awful. He continues to try and use the short putter and for this reason he can't be backed at 25/1.

Patrick Reed plays the most unbelievable schedule. He never misses a week. This week you can back him at 28/1. He bucked his downward trend at the US Open but in general he is fizzling out a little. The course sets up well for him and I wouldn't put anyone off of him but the fact he is regressing and has course form of MC-26 means I won't be backing him this week.

Keegan Bradley is almost the opposite of Reed. His numbers are slowly get better week by week. The week he avoids the big mistakes he will win, the game is there, but he is making too many costly errors. He also finished 4th here last year. I think he is worth getting on this week in the hope this is the week where it all comes together for him. 33/1 seems fair.

Finally Brendon Todd. 50/1 looks big to me. He was 5th after each of the first 3 rounds at the Byron Nelson before finishing 17th. He bombed out of the FedEx St Jude before finishing a solid 15th last week with rounds of 67-70-67-67. He ranks 13th in putting and has been statistically sound all year, but seems to be building to a peak.

I like the selections this week so I'm going to bet them fairly hard.

JK


Alstom Open de France

1 point each way Emiliano Grillo @ 40/1

1.5 points each way Byeong Hun An @ 33/1


The Greenbrier Classic

3 point win Bubba Watson @ 12/1

1 point each way Brendon Todd @ 50/1

1.25 points each way Keegan Bradley @ 33/1

Specials

0.25 point each way double Bubba Watson 12/1 and Emiliano Grillo @ 40/1 (532/1)

0.25 point each way double Bubba Watson 12/1 and Byeong Hun An @ 33/1
(441/1)

0.25 point each way double Keegan Bradley 33/1 and Emiliano Grillo @ 40/1
(1393/1)

0.25 point each way double Keegan Bradley 33/1 and Byeong Hun An @ 33/1
(1155/1)

0.25 point each way double Brendon Todd 50/1 and Emiliano Grillo @ 40/1
(2090/1)

0.25 point each way double Brendon Todd 50/1 and Byeong Hun An @ 33/1
(1733/1)



2015 running total =  -73.14 points. This week’s 15.5 investment points. This weeks P&L = -15.5 points

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015


1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

The Open
1.5 points each way Bubba Watson @ 40/1


2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments