UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 August 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Omega European Masters and Deutsche Bank Championship

I got two things right last week. Firstly I thought Matt Kuchar would play well and secondly I forecast the bad weather that hit New York, unfortunately we only get paid for one of these predictions. Kuchar did play well, he finished 2nd but perhaps it was the bad weather that cost him the win. Kuchar Vs Dustin Johnson on the final day - I would happily go with Kuchar. Webb Simpson was also sprinting through the field before hurricane Irene made The Barclays a three round tournament. Away from Kuchar and Simpson the pick’s performances were disappointing. The Johnnie Walker was frankly an embarrassing tipping performance. Throw in the withdrawal of Chris Couch after one round in The Barclays and the performances of Kuchar and Simpson feel overshadowed by the poor performances of the others. This is also reflected in the financials. We won 6 points on Kuchar but lost 14 points elsewhere, losing 8 points on the week. Our total for 2011 drops to +157.16 or +£1571.60 to a £10 stake.

So on to this weeks golf. Two good tournaments to have a look at. In Europe it is the Omega European Masters which is co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour. In the States it is the second week of the playoffs. The Deutsche Bank Championship. Both events boast fantastic line ups. With the exception of Tiger Woods anyone worth watching in the world of golf at the moment is playing this week. Good.

Rory Mcilroy heads the betting in Switzerland at 9/1. Westwood, Manassero and Kaymer are next up. It is tough to know what type of player suits this quirky, mountain course. Players tend to either love it or hate it but generally suits longer hitters despite only being 6800 yards long. The reason for this is the turtle back greens that Seve introduced in his redesign are easier to manage with shorter clubs.

Surely both Westwood and Mcilroy will be in the mix on Sunday. But 9/1 Rory and 10/1 Lee does not appeal much. 18/1 Manassero seems extremely tight too even considering his third place here last year. Jimenez comes in for serious consideration at 33/1. He is the horse for this course and defends this week. His putter has been a little cold in recent weeks but holing a few early in the week can change all that. 33/1 is about the right price and he should give us a decent run. A player with a similar game to Jimenez is Frenchman Gregory Bourdy. He has been a little quite in recent weeks but this should set up well for him and is a good price at 100/1. Soren Kjelsden is a big price at 125/1. He has not had a great season so far but often when a player slightly out of form finds a course that sets up well for them they feel they need to take the opportunity. One of the shortest but straightest hitters on tour will look at one of the shortest courses on tour and look to take his chance to rediscover some form. Worth a go at a big price.

The TPC Boston hosts the Deutsche Bank for the 9th time. The course has not changed since last year so scoring should go lights out again at the 7214 yard par 71. This course is pretty easy. It is not demanding from the tee, greens are relatively easy to find and players average more strokes gained putting than the average PGA Tour venue. With perfect weather forecast throughout this really is a wide open week where anyone who gets hot can win.

The top three from last week have to be considered the hottest going in. Dustin Johnson is a birdie machine when he is on and the bookies obviously assume he is going to retain the momentum from last week here, offering just 18/1 about him. Matt Kuchar has to be considered again. After an opening 63 he lead all week until a couple of late bogies cost him the tournament. He lead the field in putting which bodes well for this shoot out and has finished in the top 15 the last two years here. 22/1 seems to be an acceptable price.

Vijay Singh finished third last week. We backed him the week before as an absolute gut shot and he rewarded us with a place. I was a little gutted not to go with him again last week. Anytime Vijay has an ounce of confidence with his putting he contends. At the Wyndham Championship it was a much weaker field and we got 125/1 about him. Although this is not a full field event it is a strong line up so 33/1 about him this week makes no appeal. He was 35/1 to place in the Wyndham. He is a pass despite his great record here and good recent form.

Others for my consideration, or should I say the usual suspects? Webb Simpson, David Toms, Chris Couch, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Hunter Mahan, Nick Watney and Steve Stricker.

Stricker was disappointing last week. He finished 24th which finished his run of 11 straight top 20’s. Very impressive. The course set up well for him last week, as does this, but a guy that used to take September off and maybe is not on tip top form can not be backed at 16/1. When the scoring goes low Adam Scott is not a consistent enough putter to be backed at 18/1. Jason Day is one to have a long look at. He finished second here last year after leading for the first three rounds. 13th last week shows his recent form is good and long term? Well he has 9 top 15’s in 18 starts. I just can’t take 20/1 about him. It is a little stingy. 28/1 - 33/1 is the price range I would have put him in and 20/1 just does not offer enough value.

David Toms is value. A missed cut looks bad on paper but a closer look at his stats shows he actually played pretty good, especially in his second round 66 where he hit 86% of fairways and 89% of greens. Scotty Cameron said Toms has the best stroke on tour, high praise indeed. So don’t be surprised if he bounces back this week at a very generous 55/1. Chris Couch withdrew after a +6 opening round last week. Even I can’t get excited about the 250/1 on offer this week. He has shown too little for too long. His stats remain incredibly good considering his scores. So I am still tempted but I am going to leave him alone, begrudgingly.

It is very hard to leave Nick Watney out of the staking plan but it has to be done. Like Jason Day he ticks all the boxes and can definitely win but 22/1 is too short. If his putter gets hot which it is inclined to do from time to time he could leave this field in his wake. He ranks 2nd in putting on tour this year. He finished 10th last week and can go well again but 22/1 is just not big enough.

Webb Simpson had a poor opening round last week but rallied well to finish 10th, closing with a 9 birdie 63. He is bang in form and full of confidence which leads me to believe his two missed cuts from two attempts here may be irrelevant. Recent form is more important than course form. 33/1 still offers a little value and he gets in the picks agin this week.

My final pick is Hunter Mahan. His stats are very impressive this season yet his results have been average for a player of his ability. One week he will bounce back and make a mockery of the generous prices on offer about him. This week he is 60/1. Almost three times the price of Day and Watney. Decent value about a very capable player.

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -
www.geoff-banks.com

Omega European Masters

1.5 pts each way Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 33/1
0.5 pts each way Gregory Bourdy @ 100/1
0.5 pts each way Soren Kjelsden @ 125/1


Deutsche Bank Championship

1.5 pts each way Webb Simpson @ 33/1
1.5 pts each way David Toms @ 55/1
2 pts win Matt Kuchar @ 22/1
1 pt each way Hunter Mahan @ 60/1

Special Bets

2pt treble Foster to bt Clarke @ 10/11, Toms to bt Ogilvy 10/11, Mahan to bt Furyk @ 10/11, 72 hole matches.


2011 running total +157.16 pts This weeks investment 17 pts


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.



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