UA-33754892-1 Archives for 27 May 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Wales Open and Memorial Tournament

We made 1 point profit last week. Justin Rose’s 2nd place finish to Luke Donald in the BMW won us 9 points. We lost 2 points on Peter Hanson who blew up in round 2 at Wentworth. We lost another 2 points on John Senden who is becoming expensive to follow. He finished in the middle of the pack again without ever threatening to get into contention. 4 points went on Bo Van Pelt, who looked nailed on for a place after his 2nd round 64 but threw in an appalling final round of +5 to slip back through the field. The 1 point profit took us to +59.83 points of profit for 2012. £598.30 to a £10 stake.

This week is the Wales Open and Jack Nicklaus’ Memorial Tournament. The Wales Open is played on the 7500 yard par 71 Celtic Manor course. Obviously it suits the longer hitters but looking through the last 5 years results it appears accurate iron players are the ones who do well here. I would have been very keen on Alex Noren this week. On Monday there was 33/1 available about him but is now top price 18/1. The defending champion had similar preparation last year. A solid week at Wentworth, won US Open Qualifying at Walton Heath before winning in Wales. He has done the first two again this year but 18/1 is way to short.

Apart from Noren it is hard to fancy anyone. Francesco Molinari has obvious claims but is short enough at 12/1. Mind you 12/1 looks big when you see Paul Lawrie at 14/1. That is a shocking price and forced me immediately to see if we can take advantage. You can get 10/11 on Francesco to beat Paul Lawire in a 72 hole match bet, That seems decent enough to me. Apart from that I am going to have a little play on the Tour School winner David Dixon. He has not received the starts he deserved this season but will see this as a big opportunity. The course should suit him and he finished 8th last time out. If he putts half decent he should not be far away and 300/1 is a value price.

Now The Memorial. A great field has assembled at Jack’s place. Donald, coming off his BMW PGA Championship defence is the 9/1 favourite. Right behind him you have Woods, Mcilroy, Rose, Mickelson, Fowler, Furyk, Stricker, Scott, and Watson. A real whose who of golf.

Donald can certainly win, his short game and especially his putting means he can win anywhere. Not for me after a long couple of weeks and only 10/1. Woods is unpredictable but won at Bay Hill, a course he has had a lot of success on. He has had a lot of success here too where he is a four time winner. 14/1 could look pretty good come Sunday but who knows which Woods is going to show up. Probably not for me this week. This is a Nicklaus design so will favour a left to right hitter. Mcilroy can’t fade it so is discounted. Rose has a huge chance and has won here before but 16/1 is short enough.

If Mickelson was just a slightly bigger price I would back him. 16/1 is short, if he was just bigger than 20/1 he would be a bet. I am going to give Keegan Bradley another pop. He has been a little out of form the last few weeks but has had the last two weeks with his coach in Texas and may have ironed a few things out. 45/1 is a good price. Bo Van Pelt has to be given another chance too. He ranks 6th in putting on the US Tour but ranked 4th in greens hit last week. That is a decent combination and at 40/1 is in the staking plan again. I am umming and ahhing between Crane and Colsaerts as my final pick. The long hitting Belgium does not have to worry about accuracy from the tee as Memorial is fairly lenient but his length will be rewarded. He is 6th in Europe in scoring average and can enjoy his debut in this event at 110/1.

Wales Open

0.5 points David Dixon @ 300/1

The Memorial

1.5 points each way Bo Van Pelt @ 40/1
1.5 points each way Keegan Bradley @ 45/1
1 point each way Nicholas Colsaerts @ 110/1

Special Bet

4 points treble Webb Simpson to bt Bubba Watson 10/11, Bo Van Pelt to bt Geoff Ogilvy @ 10/11 and Fracesco Molanari to bt Paul Lawrie @ 10/11

2012 running total +59.83 points. This weeks investment 13 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf