UA-33754892-1 Archives for 27 March 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Shell Houston Open and Trophy Hassan II

As so often happens we had a very bad week after a very good week. Not one of the selected players gave us a decent run for our money. We lost all 12 points invested bringing us back to a 199.83 point profit for the year. I want to say “now time to kick on again” but having a look at this weeks golf I think it is very difficult to make a confident selection in either event.

European golf is hard to pick. Last week after the cut there were only three players in the top 100 in the world rankings left in the field. When you see things like that you realise it may be best to wait to the decent events instead of trying to pick a potentially good player in a weak field on an indifferent course. The lesser events in Europe are really open and anyone can win. The event in Morocco this week is much of the same. It is the second time this event has been staged but they are playing two new courses that are short and potentially exposed to some strong winds. If I were to make a play I may look at a young player at a huge price. You could do worse than Romain Wattel at 150/1 but I can’t put him in as an official pick with any confidence. Scott Jamieson is a player in form and a very gifted young player. If the wind blows the Scott can feature. If he were 80/1 I would be a backer but at 40’s I will pass. Once again, sadly, I am going to sit out on the European golf this week.

The Shell Houston Open is not much easier. The course is long and is set up ideally for bombers with sharp shortgames. Bombers - Mickelson, Kim, Holmes, Garrigus, Day and Woodland are the ones I focused on. Kim obviously goes well here but is struggling for form. He won last year and was last in fairways hit in the whole field. A stat one must think about. Mickelson is not a bad bet at 16/1, the course seems to suit him and we all know about his short game. However, he does not look sharp enough to be backed this week, ranking only 37th in scrambling getting up and down 63% of the time. Stricker is a bigger price and gets up and down almost 73% of the time. Kim can be anything at the moment and at 33/1 he could have been a great bet come Sunday or he may not be playing come Sunday. Again too short for the risk. Holmes is a good bet at 33/1 but ranked 147 in scrambling in a little concerning. Woodland was my hero two weeks ago but last week we saw the effect a win can have on a young player. He will be looking to next weeks Masters debut this week and may not have the focus we need. Jason Day is too short and well backed at 40/1. Garrigus can go well but again 121 is scrambling. 100/1 is tempting though. Another is Cabrera. He is long but also careless and gets up and down less than 50% of the time.

As you may have noticed there are many players you can make arguments for but also arguments against. I was sweet on Toms last week but discounted him saying the course was too long to our cost. Maybe I will learn by this mistake. Maybe, just maybe you don’t need to be long to win on long courses. Look at the Masters, short hitters win regularly on a course where people say you have to be long to win.

Looking at who I think will play good golf instead of just bombing and gauging I shortlist Kuchar, Crane, Ogilvie, Stricker and Mahan. Kuchar is awesome and I may save him for next week. 14/1 favourite round a course that is far from ideal does not seem like a good idea. Stricker is in the same category, huge chance, too short on a course that does not suit, even when he leads the scrambling stats on tour (probably a result of sitting out the Florida swing where the others were playing tough courses at the Honda and Bay Hill with thick rough around the greens). These guys are sure to compete but that does not necessarily make them good bets. Mahan is 18/1. I can’t find a reason for him not winning this week, he has it all and won the week before a Major last year. Obviously he is not a player who springs to mind when scrambling is at a premium but he has 3 top 11’s in this event at this course. He had a bad weekend at Bay Hill and 18/1 is not a fancy price but it does appear to be a solid bet. Crane would be backed at 50/1 if he had not been suffering with an injury the last few weeks. Joe Ogilvie came through the final stage of the PGA Tour School after losing his card last year. This season he has played some solid stuff and I think e can spring a surprise at 200/1 in an open event.

Now this is where I think I have to back track. Mahan at 18/1, Mickelson 18/1, Holmes 33/1, Stricker 20/1, Kuchar 14/1. These are all tight prices. Where is the value that I like to hunt? Apart form Ogilvie I can’ find anything. Those five players all have big chances. Ben Crane is number 1 in greens hit, 22nd in fairways, 4th in birdie average, 28th in putting and 9th in the all round. Yeah he has been injured but he would not be playing the week before the Masters if he was not fully fit. His stats are too good to ignore and 50/1 is a much more backable price.

A lot of umming and ahhhrrring this week but I like the value I am getting with only the two selections this week and there will be plenty of action with Augusta next week. Check out some of links on the right of this page Geoff Banks’ early Augusta specials.

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best prices and service bet with Geoff Banks -
www.geoff-banks.com

Shell Houston Open

1.5 pts each way Ben Crane @ 50/1
1 pt each way Joe Ogilvie @ 200/1


2011 running total +199.83pts This weeks investment 5pts


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register’.




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