UA-33754892-1 Archives for 27 January 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Phoenix Open and Saudi International

Waste Management Phoenix Open

I have been fortunate to play the TPC at Scottsdale a number of times. It's an ok golf course, but not hugely special. That's until the PGA Tour come here of course and the place goes bananas. It always clashes with Super Bowl weekend. They call that the Greatest Show on Earth and this, the Greatest Show on Turf. It may well be, just don't tell our horse racing friends at Cheltenham. More spectators come to watch the pros here than at any other golf event in the world.

The course is uninspiring. It is labeled a desert course but it's not really. You see way more grass than sand and it plays very wide. It is pretty flat and very scoreable. The par 3s are maybe the toughest holes, the par 5s are very scoreable and the par 4, 14th is by far the toughest hole on the course after it was redesigned a few years ago.

It is not a long course at 7250 yards and with the altitude making it play a fair bit shorter. There is rain forecast however and although the course drains well, it will suit the longer hitters. The key here is approach play. Good iron players dominate this event. The greens are very flat and the trouble is picking small subtle breaks rather than dealing with huge swings. The rough does bother a player a little, it is long enough to make one lose control, but the fairways are huge. Aggressive, strong iron players go well here, as do longer hitters. Dealing with the atmosphere is also key. Ryder Cup and big time players have an edge with their experience.

There's a few I like here. You are basically looking for players like Matsuyama, Holmes, Woodland , Bubba, Fowler, Mickelson. Longer than average and great iron players. The problem with just picking these players is they have the course form and are priced accordingly. I mean Hideki played well last week but was 66/1 at the off for the Farmers, 12/1 for this is some reaction. He does boast course form of 4,2,1,1,WD (WD was a wrist injury last year).

Tony Finau I like out of the shorter prices. He is 20/1, I would be nearer 14/1. His form here reads 22,mc,mc,mc but he does boast two second place finishes in his last 5 starts and he has become a very solid player. A top 10 machine. He finished 13th last week and this should set up nicely, the softer the fairways get the better for the big hitting 29 year old. He will need to warm up the putter a little but should be there or there about come Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere, Luke List looks worth a second look at 70/1. He is long, ranks 4th this season in driving distance and has been playing nicely. He also ranks 10th in strokes gained tee to green. He finished 4th in the RSM Classic in November and came back after a break with a MC at the Desert Classic and a 40th last week. Course form of MC, DNP, DNP, mc, mc, 26 is not overly encouraging but again, he fits the profile of a player that should enjoy TPC Scottsdale and is worth supporting to finish in the top 20 at 11/4.

I am tempted with Chez Reavie at 50/1, a player who finished 2nd last year and has been hitting his irons as good as anyone the last few weeks. He is short off the tee but went to Arizona State and calls this his Major. Andrew Putnam is not dissimilar. He is a better putter than Reavie and finished 2nd at the Sony. He is not a natural fit for the course but is playing well enough to get involved.

I would definitely expect Justin Thomas and Webb Simpson to be involved in the finish. Their approach work is as good as anyones but their prices are a little short for me to play. I will stick with Finau against the field.

In the 72 hole matches Rickie Fowler has beaten Phil Mickelson in the last four events they both played. Now, I know Phil is good here. The width off the tee plays right into his hands. I also am aware he was an Arizona State player and the fans here adore him, and I also realise he looked very sharp when just missing out two weeks ago in the Desert Classic but Fowler has three top 4s and an 11th here last year. I have it that Mickelson has an edge on the greens (although Fowler is a highly rated putter) but Fowler is better tee to green. I have it that Fowler would win this match up just over 62% of the time and the 5/6 available represents a 55% chance. I'll take that edge.

Saudi International.

This is a new and, frankly, a very strange event. Big money, huge appearance fees and a top heavy field playing on a little resort course. I think the market leaders both represent decent value. Justin Rose and Dustin Johnson should be pretty hard to beat this week. In fact they both offer good value and if it were not for the course layout I would happily back them both against the field. However, Rose especially will be tired having flown in from the West coast of The States after winning so impressively last week.

This course appears to be very lenient and short. 6900 yards and four par 4s under 380 yards. There looks to be many dogleg holes and despite looking wide open, long hitting appears to be negated a little because of this. It is flat, it is wide open and has a couple of holes that run along the Red Sea so it could get windy. If it doesn't scoring could get a little silly.

I would be looking towards players with expert scoring skills with wedges in their hands. They will have plenty of them this week. I wish Tyrrell Hatton was playing, this looks right up his street, sadly he is in Phoenix.

One thing I am guessing at, but I think is true, is recent Challenge Tour players will have an advantage playing at a venue like this. They are far more used to playing courses like this, in environments like this. There will be plenty of distractions with locals likely to have little or no clue on spectator etiquette. Also, Saudi is a strange place to say the least and I would imagine with the big names like Rose, Dustin, Koepka, Bryson etc having collected their enormous pay packets I would expect they will have to do an awful lot of media and promotion throughout the week.

Rose and Dustin take pretty much all the value out of the win book, but I think it is worth chancing a couple of lower ranked players to fill the places.

I like Soren Kjelsden this week. He missed the cut in Dubai last week but finished 5th in Abu Dhabi the week before. If the wind blows it won't affect him and when it comes to wedging and putting few do it better. 7/2 about a top 20 is about the right price but worth taking.

Going back to my Challenge Tour theory I think we should go with our young Spanish friend who finished 2nd on the Challenge Tour last year, Adri Arnaus. He has played well in the desert swing so far. 22nd in Abu Dhabi and 29th last week. The 22 year old is a real talent, hits it long, good with his wedges and a tidy short game. I have said the last few weeks that he could have a break out year. This would be a good one to win but 11/2 about a top 20 seems a more realistic way to back him.

I think there is some value about Stenson who normally goes very well in the desert and on links. He missed the cut the last two weeks and it isn't the perfect course for him, but he looks a decent bet to get in the places. I also like Poulter at 25/1, he is a great wedge player but two good weeks has seen the value about him disappear.

Waste Management Phoenix Open

To win

0.25 units Tony Finau @ 20/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.75 units Tony Finau @ 11/2 (-0.75)

Top 10

No bet

Top 20

2 units Tony Finau @ Evs (-2)
0.75 units Luke List @ 11/4 (-0.75)

72 Hole Match Bet - (with Skybet tie no bet)

2.5 units Rickie Fowler to beat Phil Mickelson @ 5/6 (+2.08)

Saudi International

To win

no bet

Top 5

0.5 units Henrik Stenson @ 6/1 (-0.5)

Top 10

1 unit Henrik Stenson @ 11/4 (-1)

Top 20

0.5 units Soren Kjeldsen @ 7/2 (-0.5)
0.5 units Adri Arnaus @ 11/2 (-0.5)
2 units Henrik Stenson @ 5/4 (-2)

This week's P&L = -6.17
This week’s investment = 10.75 units

This week's Outright P&L = -8.25
This weeks's Outright Investment = 8.25 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +2.08
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 2.5 units

2019 Total P&L = -15.8 units

2019 Total Investment = 98 unites

2019 Outright Bets P&L = -16.52 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 59.25 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +0.72 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 41 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.