UA-33754892-1 Archives for 27 January 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Dubai Desert Classic and WM Phoenix Open

Thongchai Jaidee recorded his fourth top ten in a row last week in Qatar. Unfortunately we don’t get paid for being close. He cost us 2 points. Andres Hansen had another solid week but cost us 2 points. In the States Keegan Bradley was awful and not only cost us 3 points on the outright but also sunk our double, BVP was steady but proved his dislike for tough courses when struggling on the weekend, especially with the putter again. Garrigus saved me a little as I fortunately had 6 places with Apollobet (but will of course settle as a loser on my records as industry standard is 5 places). This meant Ross Fisher was our only return. He finished top European @ 6/1 winning us 6 points back which offset a little of the 14.2 points lost elsewhere. We lost 8.2 points on a week of heavy investment. Our yearly total dips to -12.2 points.

So, this week we have two desert events to look at. First up the WM Phoenix Open played at TPC Scottsdale. I played this course in December. It is ok but really nothing special. It is wide open, not that long, flat and all in pretty scoreable. Run offs around the green make it a little tricky in places but it’s the hostile and intimidating atmosphere created by 70,000 rowdy fans that is probably the hardest factor to deal with. A strong mind and a good deal of patience is key here. All in this course doesn’t suit one type of player. I think it helps if you are long and drive it good as it will add to the decent looks you get for birdie. You will need to hole your fair share of putts to keep up with the scoring. It looks like a tough one to call.

There are a few I like near the top of the market.
Dufner is worthy favourite. He is coming off two 9th place finishes in the desert of ‘Europe,’ where in both events he finished fast. He looks in good form, has a good record here including a runner up finish in 2011 (lost in a playoff) and a top 10 last year. He is on a run of 8 top 20’s world wide and has a big chance here. 16/1 is on the tight side for me though, he is a great player but at 16/1 you would want to see him convert more often and there is not enough each way value to back him this week.

Rickie Fowler has a decent shout and this will suit but 16/1 is a terrible price. Snedeker, yeap, playing well, puts well enough to win anywhere and has a good record at the course. He lead here in 2010 entering the final round before a chokey 78 left in a share of 43rd! I like him more than Fowler at the price but still looks a little on the short side. If Watson had not been withdrawn ill last week one may have liked his chances here a little more. He will thrive on the atmosphere here and the course fits perfectly. If he is well 18/1 is a nice price about him. I don’t know how he is feeling or how much work he got done last week and therefore I can’t be with him. I also like Charles Howell III and Robert Garrigus but there is nothing overly appealing in the 33/1 on offer about the pair.

My first pick of the week is
Russell Henley. He won the Sony Open, his first event as a full member of the PGA Tour. He also made a run at the Humana Challenge, coming up just short. He looks a very nice player. He swings it good and is putting with a lot of confidence. He ranks first in putting this season, which is a nice stat, but mix that with 6th in total driving and 5th in greens in regulation and statistically you are looking at the best player in the field. Sure the Sony and Humana are not the most challenging venues, but nor is this. This should set up nicely and he will enjoy the experience. Lets hope he gets motivated by it too. Take the 66/1.

My second pick is
Kevin Streelman. He has never finished higher than 35th at Scottsdale in 6 attempts but he has never played particularly well at the start of the year either. This year is different. He has come out the blocks hot for a change. His rounds so far this year are 71,67,66,66 = -10, 69,65,66,67 = -21. These have been good enough for a 21st and 10th finish in his opening two events. The 10th in the Palm Springs desert. It is not ideal for him but 150/1 looks big.

Charley Hoffman has a decent record here. He finished 2nd in 2009, losing in a playoff and lead after day one in 2011 before finishing 23rd. He finished 10th in Palm Springs two weeks ago and had a solid 34th last week. His long game is always good enough, a lot depends on his putter and then his attitude too but on a course that suits he looks a runner at 100/1.

Chris Kirk finished 5th in the Sony but missed the cut in the Humana. For me the big thing is his putting. It looks like he has become much more solid at holing out this season and this is reflected in his scoring. -22 for his 7 rounds this year. He is a classy player who has multiple wins on the and performs well early in the season. 100/1 looks fair.

William Mcgirt is my final pick. He finished 22nd here in 2011 but did not play last year. A 65 in his 2nd round on his only start here shows the course holds no fears for him. He finished 56th on his only start in 2012 in Palm Springs but he was -15 in a bunched field. 250/1, 275/1 with bet 365 seems too big and he is worth a small interest at a big price.

The line up in Dubai is a little disappointing this year. The main reason I say disappointing is because I wanted to back
Westwood with no hesitation, expecting to see a quote of at least 16/1. Then disappointment kicked in with the realisation that 17/2 is the best on offer and, as I have mentioned before, I will never back Westwood win only in a tournament he cares about as he struggles to get it done. He hits it great all week, gets under the gun, misses a few greens, has a very weak short game, drops a few shots finishes placed, with punters left disappointed. I would love to back him this week as from all accounts he has trained hard in Florida spending his pre-season playing with Donald and Rickie Fowler. However, at 17/2 he can’t be backed.

Garcia is favourite at 6/1 which is fair. He played great last week, looks up for golf and should have a huge chance here but I find it hard to back players as short as that in deep fields. It is ok in events in Asia or Australia where you only have maybe 20 or 30 guys that can win an event on any given week but this field is deep and Garcia is not that scary to most of these players.

Stenson is in great form and loves desert golf, having been a long term resident in Dubai. 14/1 is still way off his real price and should not be backed. Olesen, as I spoke about last week, is class. He is tempting at 22/1 but Jaidee is going to be where my money is going. Five top 10’s in a row and great desert form with two tied 9th places the last two weeks. He is due to cash in on his good form and it could be here. His form is better than Stenson’s over the last few weeks yet you can back him at a much better price. He is decent value at 28/1.

I am tempted with
Andres Hansen again this week at 33/1 but I am going to pass as he could not get anything going in Qatar last week despite some solid golf. Instead 50/1 Seung-Yul Noh gets the nod. He finished 24th here last year in his only start in ‘Europe’. He has switched to Nike this year but seems to have settled ok finishing 27th last week at Torrey Pines. The key for me is he ranked 20th in putting there, an aspect of the game which is normally his weakest. I think 50/1 is very fair and worth a go.

Dubai Desert Classic

1 pt each way Thonghai Jaidee @ 28/1
1 pt each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 50/1

WM Phoenix Open

1 pt each way Russell Henely @ 66/1
0.5 pts each way Kevin Streelman @ 150/1
0.75 pts each way Charley Hoffman @ 100/1
0.5 pts each way Chris Kirk @ 100/1
0.5 pts each way William Mcgirt @ 250/1

2013 running total = -12.2 pts. This week’s investment 10.5 points. This weeks P&L = -10.5

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.