UA-33754892-1 Archives for 27 February 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Honda Classic

Last week was very poor. I love the event but I always struggle to pick the winners, as you can tell! I said I liked players who were consistent rather than flare players in matchplay, despite the common belief that matchplay allows you to be inconsistent and Luke Donald proved this theory right. Having said that I would never ever have been able to tip him last week. He had just shot 79 to miss the cut around one of his favourite courses and sat 185th in total driving and 184th in greens in reg! However, he had the perfect week last week. He was never down in any game the whole week and his short game was incredible. Indeed we lost all 13 points invested last week dropping us back to 102.5 points profit for the year or £1025 to a £10 stake.

This week we have one event in the States to concentrate on. The Honda Classic played at the PGA National. The National is the second hardest course out of the 52 they play on the US Tour. A par 70 at 7100 yards it has water in play on 16 holes. The course suits left to right hitters who are solid ball strikers and can handle the wind that normally blows here. 20 mph winds out of the East are forecast for the first two days along with the threat of rain throughout the event.

There are very few fancy prices this week as once again they bet 14/1 the field. Favouritism is close between Westwood, Donald, Mcdowell and Mcilroy. Yes I did say this was a US Tour event. What a sign of the times. To be honest I am not massively keen on anyone this week. Initially I liked Donald, Yang and Els. Donald has the course record of 64, he shot this in 2008 when he finished second and is also a past winner. It is a big ask to win again after a long week last week. Yang’s ball striking stats are seriously impressive but his putter remains too cold to take advantage. He had a good run last week, beating some impressive players along the way. He is also a past champion but to back him at 40/1 you would want to see him putting better and contending more, Els, also a past winner, is 33/1 but looks so shaky with the the putter. He did not look like a player about to win last week,

Kuchar is awesome. His third last week was his fourth top seven of the year. He is 20th in greens in regulation, 17th in putting and 3rd in the all round rankings. His course form is not great but he has not played here since he became arguably the best American golfer in the world. He also had a long week last week but he loves playing tournaments and has never been afraid from playing 6 or more weeks in a row whilst maintaining form. 20/1 is a little skinny but if the weather remains fair to good I would be surprised if he did not at least reward us with a place. I would certainly bet him against three out of the top four Europeans in the betting as I think Mcilroy will appreciate this course. Mcilroy is too inconsistent to back right now. Kuchar at 20/1 is my first pick.

Brian Gay started last weeks secondary event on the US Tour in Mexico as favourite. He sneaks into the betting here at 50/1. He finished 5th last week which meant in his five starts this year he has four top 20’s. He won twice in 2009 and once in 2008 so he knows how to win. The only thing I fear with him is he tends to go well on low scoring courses and this week the scoring will be high. Tough courses do not suit. However, he is first in driving accuracy, sand saves and actual scoring as well as ranking second in scrambling and birdie average. He is sixth in the all round ranking and gets the nod at 50/1.

Finally Nate Smith. He is back at a huge price this week and if the wind blows he can go well here. He plays tough courses well and had a solid week last week in Mexico. Have a little each way dabble at 500/1.

The Honda Classic

1.5 pts each way Matt Kuchar @ 20/1
1pt each way Brian Gay @ 50/1
1 pt each way Nate Smith @ 500/1

Special Bet

1 pt Trixie (3 doubles and a treble costing 4pts)

Lee Westwood Top Englishman @ 2/1 (Skybet)
Y. E. Yang Top Asian @ 5/4 (Skybet)
Robert Allenby Top Australian @ 9/4 (Skybet)

I know these three are not inspired selections as they are all favourites in their respective fields but all three are head and shoulders above their market rivals in ball striking and playing hard courses well. Obviously Adam Scott does rival Allenby but not on current form. A good interest bet where the smallest double pays 11/2 and the trixie pays 42/1.

2011 running total +102.5 pts This weeks investment 11pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

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