UA-33754892-1 Archives for 27 April 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Wells Fargo Championship

Last week in America was awful. Matt Every withdrew after one round and both Will MacKenzie and Ryan Palmer missed the cut, not too much entertainment. Just goes to show when the scoring goes low it really doesn’t eliminate any players. Apart from Keegan Bradley, it would have been hard to make a decent case to back any of the players in contention. Noh, the winner, is a class act and, despite being still young, has had the potential to win at this level for years. His Achilles heel has been his driving. Playing a course with no rough suited him well. He was bogey free for three rounds and closed out well in the wind on day four.

The thing that was harder to accept was our 80/1 selection in China. Illonen was cruising, anything in the final round of 74 or better would have seen him place. The average score on the last day was into the sixties so a closing 75 from our man was hugely disappointing. I thought he had more chance of winning than not placing. Ouch.

On to this week. I am away at a tournament in Paris so the write up will be fairly brief.

Quail Hollow is the venue for the Wells Fargo Championship. This is a course that normally draws attention for providing a strong line up on a world class course. One of the main reasons the players love it is because it is set up with great similarity to what they will see in Majors. In fact, because of this, Quail Hollow will host the 2017 USPGA. Last year, however, it drew attention for the wrong reasons. They lost the greens, with the 8th and the 10th almost unplayable. Since then all the bent grass greens have been replaced with ultradwarf Bermuda. I wish Wentworth would consider doing the same on the West. Ultradwarf is weather tolerant and ideal for hot and cold conditions. It is also the choice that Pinehurst will switch to after the US Opens. Plural as they also host the Ladies US Open the week after the gents.

Both Quail Hollow and Pinehurst measure the same, 7562 yards. Quail Hollow however is a par 72 to Pinehurst’s 70. It is tough course to find fairways and, if missed, it results in conservative approach play. Hence the green in regulation percentages remain high but so do the proximity to the hole averages. To play this course well you need to have the same sort of attributes as a Players Champion or a Major winner. Hence Mickelson, Rory, Furyk and Westwood have great records here. Obviously last year’s winner was a little different. Deryk Ernst recorded his only ever top 30 here in two years as a professional and walked away with the title. He must be the only player to play in The Masters with only one top 30 finish to his name!

Still, take Ernst out of it and lets look at how the metrics broke down last year and we see there is a value on everything in a golfers armoury. The longest hitter, Luke List, finished 16th. The straightest, McNeill, also finished 16th. The best putter, Mickelson, 3rd. The leader of greens hit, Rory, 10th. Proximity to the hole, Watney, 10th. Scrambling, Karlsson/Streelman/BVP 4th/6th/6th. Ernst for the week ranked in the top 13 of each of these stats apart from proximity where he ranked 27th. He also holed 4 putts outside of 20ft which was the best for the week. It certainly appears to have been the week of his life!

Anyway, I like Webb Simpson, Zach Johnson and Will MacKenzie.

Lets deal with Willy Mack first. He missed the cut last week but the only thing that has really taken a slide are his scrambling stats. I have talked a lot about players referring to their mean, and although he appears to be trending this way again, it only really appears to be in that one metric. At 100/1 he is worth chancing again on a course that is set up similar to those where he has had most of his success this season. He has also proved competent in the wind, and there is expected to be a breeze around all week.

Zach Johnson is another who is trending a little down. Obviously you would rather catch players on the way up but a slight down trend does not mean players do not bounce back to form. Zach’s downtrend is predominantly down to putting. We know he is a great putter and he tends to putt his best on bermuda, so at 40/1 he is worth a pop.

Webb Simpson is a player in a slump, he has not had a top 45 in a stroke play event for 3 months..... so why wouldn’t you lump on?! The key for me is the course set up suits him so well and his stats are still very tight. It has been the case of the occasional big number ruining good days. The real trump card is he is a member at Quail Hollow and finished 4th in 2012. Home course advantage has to count for something and at 50/1 he is definitely a bet.

Wells Fargo Championship

0.75 points each way Will MacKenzie @ 100/1
1.5 points each way Webb Simpson @ 50/1
1.25 points each way Zach Johnson @ 40/1

2014 running total =  +3.9 points. This week’s investment 7 points. This weeks P&L = - 7 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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