UA-33754892-1 Archives for 26 October 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Masters and CIMB Classic

If we cut it down to the bare bones the last few week’s profit and loss figures look nothing short of appalling. It doesn’t tell the full story. The players we have been backing have generally been out performing their prices but this counts for little when they are not showing returns. The selections are generally playing well and getting into position but not quite getting it done. I believe that when investing in golf this is sometimes a pattern you have to put up with, it’s not easy, especially if you have a limited bank roll, but it is the flip side of the times when the selections under perform before charging through on Sunday’s to steal a place from nowhere. In betting it is easy to attach too much emotion to negative outcomes and not enough to the positive. That’s why punters often switch up strategies and that’s where it can often really come undone. The worm will turn and it would be helpful if it was this week!

We have two decent opportunities too. The CIMB Classic in Malaysia and the BMW Masters in China. Let’s look at the BMW first.

A strong field has assembled in Shanghai to play the first of The Race to Dubai’s Final Series, the BMW Masters. There are a few notable absentees including world number one Rory McIlroy, who is ‘preparing’ for his court case against Horizon Sports Management. He has all but won the Race to Dubai anyway. Westwood, Casey and Garcia have opted to play the CIMB and Stenson withdrew after the birth of his third child. Jamie Donaldson is the top ranked European at fourth in Race to Dubai and can mathematically catch Rory, but it is unlikely.

They play BMW Masters Course at Lake Malaren Golf Club for the third time. It’s a 7607 yard par 72. It is fairly exposed and it can get windy. Peter Hanson won the inaugural edition with -21 but it was windier last year when Gonzalo Fernandez-Castaño won at -11. The fairways are cut narrower this year but the course is playing its full yardage by all accounts. It should in theory be a long hitters paradise but, as always, one can’t discount a shorter hitter who gets a hot putter for the week. This is a Nicklaus design so, as always, approach play will be key too. The greens have a lot of slope in them and the pins are often cut in bowls so good iron shots feed close (hence the low scoring) but inaccurate shots feed away from the hole, leaving tricky putts. The scoring could get quite well spread out.

Rose heads the betting at 9/1. Dubuisson is second in at 16/1 and played in a similar time zone last week in Perth. Kopeka is perhaps the form player at the moment and is being backed at 18/1. Chris Kirk (20/1) and Ryan Palmer (25/1) are two other interesting runners from the States. These limited fields (78 players) make the prices so congested. Suddenly you have 30 or so players at less than 50/1. It makes feeling like you are getting value very difficult. If you stuck another 80 players from the Asian and European Tours on the back of the field you would be getting better prices and one would feel the event would take as much winning as it does now.

Anyway, there is a lot of players to like. I think the three Americans at the top of the market have big chances. Kirk, Palmer and Koepka have all shown plenty of form of late. From the European Tour side of things I like Coetzee (35/1), Colsaerts (28/1), Jaidee (33/1), Olesen (33/1) and Lowry (30/1). If you have a Stan James account they bet 23/20 GB and Ireland winner, 17/10 European and 5/2 Rest of the World. 5/2 looks a cracking price to me. Bet Victor go 23/5 an American winner. I will have a bit of both of those but as they are not prices free to all it is hard to put them up as recommended bets.

I do like the above players chances but none really stand out as great bets at the prices in a competitive, trappy betting heat. I also like Stan James’ price of 5/6 for Ryan Palmer to beat Ian Poulter over 72 holes, especially as Poulter has just signed with Titleist. But again, that price is just with Stan James.... and no, they don’t pay me to endorse them! I am going to back 5/2 a Rest of the World winner, 23/5 an American winner and 5/6 Palmer to beat Poulter over 72 holes, but there is nothing else I am going to make a play on.

As I read back I can’t ignore Ryan Palmer. 16-4-7 followed by a 14th at the Dunhill Links. It is strong form and this is perfect for him. He knows how to go low and if it does blow it is not a problem for the long, low hitting American. He is worth having onside at 25/1.

The CIMB in Malaysia is also a 78 man field. Kuala Lumpa Golf and Country Club hosts for the second year. Last year was the first time the CIMB was awarded full FedEx points and official earnings status. This combined with $7 million to play for with the winner getting a $1.26 million share has attracted a strong field. We have a good record in the CIMB having backed Crane and Bo Van Pelt, the first two winners of this event and having a nice each way touch on Aphibarnrat last year, who finished one shot out of a playoff. The other thing to note is KL G&CC hosts the Maybank Malaysian Open in April so Asian and European players know this course pretty well. There are five course winners teeing it up this week - Westwood, Oosthuizen, Seung-Yul Noh, Charlie Wi and Ryan Moore.

Westwood says he likes the course because you have to drive it good and it is pretty tight in places. The course is only 6985 yards which is fairly short for a par 72. So it is a little strange when you see past leaderboards with more long than accurate hitters on them. The par 5’s play pretty tough (4.77 average last year) which may account for the long hitters advantage to some degree but I think in general accurate ball strikers should go well in KL.

Garcia heads the market at 10/1 and fits the profile but coming off a break since an impressive Ryder Cup showing he may be better left alone, although he, like Westwood, have incredible strike rates in Asia and finished 11th here last year. Schwartzel is 16/1 and has 8 top 15’s in his last 15 starts. He made too many bogies last week in round 4 to challenge for us in Perth but has finished 11-6-4 here. I think the one to be on is Hideki Matsuyama. I backed him at 16/1 but there is only 14/1 left about him now. He leads the Tour in ball striking and has finished 3rd and 10th on his two starts so far this season. He finished 25th here last year when he was battling a wrist injury. This should be perfect for him and he is playing as good as anyone right now.

The other two to back in my view are Will MacKenzie at 66/1 (70/1 with BET365) and John Senden at 40/1. Senden has never player here before but this is similar set up wise to Innisbrook where he won the Valspar for us earlier this year. Ball striking and accuracy; well there are very few better and he finished a solid 18th in his only start this season at the Shriners. Willy Mac started last season incredibly well but then stopped practicing. His desire seems to be back and he lost in a playoff last week at Seaside. His game is in good shape, he is confident and he looks a big price for this.

Others worth noting are Seung-Yul Noh who has won in Asia, Europe and the States all before the age of 23. He is still somehow an underrated superstar. He has also won at KL G&CC and is coming off a 2nd in Korea last week. For me 33/1 is not maybe big enough for someone that can hit it sideways but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he was right in the mix come Sunday. I also think Gary Woodland could contend again after losing in a playoff here last year. But he has not played since the Tour Champs so 20/1 is too short. From the Asian Tour Lipsky at 100/1 and Lahiri 66/1 look to be the main threats. Lahiri won in Macau on Sunday and has 5 top 15s in his last 7 starts worldwide. 50/1 about Lahiri to be first round leader is maybe a better play then backing him to win an event that would be life changing to him.


BMW Masters

1 point each way Ryan Palmer @ 25/1

CIMB Classic

3 point win Hideki Matsuyama @ 14/1
1 point each way John Senden @ 40/1
0.75 point each way Will MacKenzie @ 66/1

Specials

0.5 points Anirban Lahiri to be first round leader in CIMB Classic @ 50/1


My Other Bets


Winning Nationality - Rest Of The World - BMW Masters @ 5/2 (Stan James)
Winning Nationality - American - BMW Masters @ 23/5 (Bet Victor)
Ryan Palmer to beat Ian Poulter @ 5/6. 72 hole matchbet. BMW Masters (Stan James)


2014 running total =  -70.77 points. This week’s investment 9.5 points. This weeks P&L = -9.5 points

(Already advised) US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.




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