UA-33754892-1 Archives for 26 May 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Memorial Tournament and Nordea Masters

We lost 10.5 points last week as the poor run continues. A couple of guys had a chance. Chris Kirk was right up there until a bogey backed up with a double saw him slip out of contention. It is a frustrating run we are on. -144.45 points for the year. As a result I had my first ever person unregister. I can’t blame him but I believe as long as we do the right things, remain consistent and patient we can still have a profitable year like we have done the last three years.

Now this week and lets have a quick look at the Nordea Masters. Noren 16/1, Franny Molinari is 18/1, last week’s impressive winner Manassero is 18/1 and Peter Hanson is 25/1. Out of these Noren seems underpriced despite his great course form and Peter Hanson slightly over but all four are more than worth their place at the head of this market. Ross Fisher, 33/1, finished 2nd here last year and he played well last week but when you chip and putt as poorly as he does it is tough to win even though this is a strong long game test which he will appreciate. I can see him contending, but that is all. Ilonen at 40/1 is interesting as he has been playing some good stuff this year, including last week and finished 3rd here last year. Uihlein is tough to get at the right time but there is no doubting his ability. He is long and putts great. After getting his first win he showed a taste for more with a late charge last week. Interesting at 40/1. Jamie Donaldson is also 40/1 and has two top 10’s here to his name.

One I like is the same price as Uihlein and Donaldson at 40/1. I think Pablo Larrazabal has served his apprenticeship this year. He has played great and whenever the putter has half behaved itself he has got himself right in the mix. He is hungry and after shooting 67, 77 to miss qualifying for the US Open yesterday I think he will be very keen to make amends. The other one I like is Edoardo Molinari. He looked like he was very close last week at Wentworth and finished 3rd here in 2010. At 45/1 he is worth a go.

The Memorial Tournament played at Muirfield Viallage boasts an exceptional line up once again. Woods heads the market at 9/4. Rightly so. He has 5 wins and another 3 top 5’s in 13 starts here and has already notched up 4 impressive wins this season. The reason why he does well here, like Bay Hill, like Augusta, like all the courses he dominates on is the course is lenient from the tee. It really is a 2nd shot course. Woods is an awesome iron player with an incredible short game and if you look at other past winners they all fit a similar profile. Stricker, Rose, Perry, Choi, Pettersson, Els etc are all greens in reg guys with great touch around the greens. When the smallish greens get to 13 on the stimp leaving and missing in the right places becomes vital.

I could almost back Woods, even at such a short price. I have him such a long way clear. But I also have Snedeker a long way clear of the rest. He has a poor record at Muirfield Village but he has never been here when in possession of such a strong long game. This should set up pretty well for him despite not being the longest. Furyk has a good record here and he is much shorter than Sneds. He ranks 12th in greens in regulation, 14th in putting and 5th in scoring. A combination that must make him a threat to Woods here. I think 33/1 is a nice price about a player who finished 8th last time out at Sawgrass.

Now there are five other players who I think should go well. Horschel, Hoffman, Streelman, Day and Walker. Horschel at 66/1 gets in. He debuts this week in this event but it looks a perfect fit. Hoffman, Day and Walker are left out as their course form is not good enough. Hoffman 72,48,68,42,mc. Day mc,27,33,dnp,mc. Walker mc,mc,62. I know what some may say “Snedeker has 5 missed cuts in 5 starts at The Memorial, that’s bad form!” I understand but Snedeker is a long way clear of these players in my view.

That leaves me with Kevin Streelman. His form is in and out here but has a win, a 2nd, a 3rd and a 6th to his name this season and a 7th at Muirfield Viallage in 2011. 80/1 is a good price about a guy who ranks 9th in ball striking and 7th in scoring.

Matt Kuchar ranks 18th on my figures but his 2nd last week combined with awesome course form means we have to have him onside this week. He should be clear second favourite on course form boasting 10,5,8,2,dnp the last 5 years. 22/1 seems worth a play, split with 14/1 in the win only without Woods.

My final pick this week is a huge price. Erik Compton is 500/1. He is worth a small play as he has a solid all round game and could sneak a place at a price that appears way too big.

Nordea Masters

1 pt each way Edoardo Molinari @ 45/1 (-2pts)
1 pt each way Pablo Larrazabal @ 40/1 (-2pts)

The Memorial Tournament

1.5 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 33/1 (-3pts)
1 pt each way Matt Kuchar @ 22/1 (+27.5 pts)
1 pt win Matt Kuchar @ 14/1 without Tiger Woods (+14 pts)
0.75 pt each way Billy Hoschel @ 66/1 (-1.5pts)
0.75 pts each way Kevin Streelman @ 80/1 (-1.5pts)
0.25 pts each way Erik Compton @ 500/1 (-0.5pts)

2013 running total = -144.45 pts. This week’s investment 13.5 points. This weeks P&L = +31 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.