UA-33754892-1 Archives for 26 February 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Honda Classic and US Masters pick

Ha ha 'Huh' beauty.  Great to get a winner just as we were staring -100 pts in the face. Huh's 8th extra hole playoff win over Robert Allenby earned us 65.63 pts. The Matchplay is always a brutal tipping event.  Literally anyone can beat anyone.  Shoot 68 and you are hard to beat. We looked good after one round but that was it!  We lost 11 points elsewhere, including on Richard Sterne in the Telkom. He put in a good performance without ever having a chance of winning.  One to keep an eye on now he has overcome longstanding back problems.  So 54.63 points to us and back to -31.37 points for the year.

Onto this week and I am very keen to keep the momentum going.  It will not be easy as The Honda Classic is a monster of an event.  PGA National hosts the event for the sixth time. In the previous five it has always ranked in the top 6 hardest courses on tour and last year the two hardest par 3's all year, including in the Majors, were the 17th and 15th here.  PGA National last year was the hardest course outside the Majors averaging over +2.5 over par per round and the 6th was the hardest par 4 outside the Majors.  So all in, quite a challenge. 

We need to find a player who can grind it out in tough conditions.  A player who can handle the wind. A good iron player, as only 55% of the greens were hit in regulation in this event last year and as always a guy who can scramble and putt.

I like Noh, Bradley, Crane, Stanley, Petterson, Westwood, Rollins, and Huh.

Huh is a tough one.  Coming off a win it is difficult to know how a player will react. He can be caught up and lose focus or he can get the bit between his teeth and make the most of his new confidence. His stats set up really well for this but the combination of no proven form on tough courses in tough conditions and the fact he won last week makes him hard to back even at 66/1.

Ben Crane has had a good, solid start to the year.  He finished 3rd here in '09 and has three top tens this season. He leads the putting stats and is 13th in greens in regulation. A very decent combo. However he is only 33/1 which is too short for me.  Petterson has appeal here but 80/1 but in tough conditions is not big enough for me.

Westwood will love the long game test and deserves a second look at 10/1. It would be no surprise to see him in the mix again but I can't help but thing last weeks long, demanding examination and disappointment will not help. The same goes for Rory.  Obviously a guy who has 8 top 3's in his last 11 starts worldwide can not be dismissed easily but how much did last week take out of him. Others that come here fresh may have a decent advantage.

John Rollins is a hard one to get. He is a terrific player, solid all round.  He also has some decent form with three top 10's in 5 starts. However his one missed cut came at Riviera which is the only other tournament where the wind really blew.  Therefore, despite finishing 2nd here in 2009 he is discounted.  Kyle Stanley finished 24th here last year with rounds of 68,66,74,75. So as you can see, he can handle this course and now he also knows how to handle the pressure. But 33/1 is very tight.  

It really is a toss up between Keegan Bradley (28/1) and Kyle Stanley. Both are in great form, both play tough courses well, both have great stats but for me the course form swings in favour of Stanley.  Bradley missed the cut here last year with rounds of 76-71.  Still, Bradley is on the leader board every time he tees it up so it must be worth having a little interest on him too.

Finally Seung-Yul Noh.  He played well last week in Mexico.  A few errors including two doubles stopped him contending but 16th on a course that did not suit is decent.  I do like Noh this week. This should be right up his street. We backed Noh at Bro Hof Slott, the host course of the Nordea Masters in Sweden last year.  It is very similar.  Bro Hof is longer but has water everywhere and the wind can really blow, like it did last year when he finished 6th. He can handle the tough conditions and can make 110/1 look very big.

I did consider Woods for this.  12/1 is tempting. A controversial view perhaps. I think he is close to being back to his best again. He pulled off some great shots under the gun last week and obviously really struggled with his putter.  I better back this view up at the risk of being called mad but consider this.  He is 4th in driving accuracy, 8th in greens in regulation, 10th in birdies per round, 8th in scoring average and 1st in sand saves.  I concede his fairways are up as he is hitting a lot of 3 woods but he is still averaging over 290 from the tee.  These stats are impressive as he has not played the 'easy stats' events like the Humana Challenge or Hyundai.  He is 175th in putting.  Very un-Tiger like. He can turn this around but perhaps not in a week.

However I do believe it will be ready for The Masters. Plus he knows those greens as well as anyone.  Tiger can shoot double figures under par around Augusta when he can't keep the ball on the planet. He is awesome around there.  He has drifted out to 13/2 for The Masters.  I much prefer this to the 12/1 on offer here.  I am going to give him an antepost pick now although I am aware a poor week here and a big week from Rory would see him drift further but I am sure he won't start The Masters bigger than 13/2.  I am going to leave room so we can back him again if he does drift.

The Honda Classic

1.5 pts each way Kyle Stanley @ 33/1
1 pt each way Keegan Bradley @ 28/1
2 pts each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 110/1

The Masters (antepost)

6 pts Tiger Woods @ 13/2

2012 running total -31.37 points. This weeks investment 15 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.