UA-33754892-1 Archives for 26 August 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Deutsche Bank Championship and Omega European Masters

Pretty disappointing week last week, nobody really got in the mix. Senden was the closest but I did not forecast the greens getting as outrageously fast on the weekend which really did not suit. We lost all 10 points invested and in turn slipped to +201.23 points in profit for the year.

On to this week and the Deutsche Bank Championship. The TPC at Boston hosts and is a 7214 yards par 71. It normally offers the lowest scoring of the postseason, apart from last year when the wind really got up on the weekend. The forecast looks ok for this week, a bit of wind on Friday and Saturday and a slight chance of rain Sunday and Monday. But all in, like most low scoring events, greens in regulation, putting and birdie averages are the key factors to look for.

I like
Justin Rose (33/1), Bo Van Pelt (45/1), Rory Mcilroy (11/1), Keegan Bradley (40/1), Jason Dufner (20/1), Bubba Watson (25/1), Lee Westwood (28/1), Matt Kuchar (50/1), John Senden (80/1) and Zach Johnson (66/1).

I am going to take
John Senden out first as I don’t think he putts good enough to go low easily and also his price is restrictive. We backed him at 150/1 last week and he is best price 80/1 this week. He had an ok week and I guess this is a smaller field but the price cut seems a little over the top to me. He was backed from 150/1 to 80/1 before the off last week and perhaps this is the bookies protecting themselves.

I like
Zach Johnson’s stats for this but his last three finishes have been 40th, 70th and 38th. His form before this was red hot but I just can’t be with him as he is a streaky player and not on a streak right now.

Justin Rose is an interesting one for this week. He has been very solid of late finishing 5th at Firestone and 3rd in the USPGA but a disappointing 46th last week. He ranks 127th in putting and 27th in birdies per round and this explains why he has only been in double digits under par twice this year on the PGA Tour. He has become a great tough course player but I am not sure this shoot out is for him.

Jason Dufner took last week off in a rather interesting scheduling choice. He played the Wyndham but not last week, strange but each to their own. He is certainly doing a lot right otherwise as he has posted 6 top 10’s in 9 starts since April including two wins. He finished 2nd at TPC Boston in 2009 and ranks 4th in greens hit and third in birdie average. He is very hard to ignore and 20/1 seems fairly bang on price wise. Hard to dismiss.

Another who is hard to dismiss (again!) is
Bo Van Pelt. Ranks 24th in greens, 8th in birdies, 9th in putting and 2nd in total driving. He has posted 14 top 25’s in 17 starts, 8 of which are top 10’s. His best finish at TPC Boston came last year when he finished 7th. 45/1 is fair and he once again finds his place in the staking plan. He is due and deserves a win this year.

Keegan Bradley’s biorhythms deserted him last week. After winning Firestone he finished 3rd in the USPGA but missed the cut last week. In 2011 he followed his win in the USPGA by missing the cut at The Barclays and Deutsche Bank. I just don’t like the look of those ‘biorhythms’ and I am going to pass on him this week.

Bubba Watson does not seem to be firing 100% at the moment but is posting solid results. He is lurking ominously. He, as always, leads the tour in greens in regulation and ranks 6th in birdie average. He hit it everywhere last week but still posted a top 10. 25/1 seems a little tight to me but he did open 68-64 here last year before falling away to finish 16th. Tempting, but not for me this week.

Rory Mcilroy has a big, big chance here. He finished 24th last week which can be overlooked as he ranked last in putting on some ‘interesting’ greens. We know he is putting well and will enjoy the fairer test at TPC Boston. He ranks 50th in greens hit which I think is more a sign of where his game was than where it is now. He ranked 4th in greens hit last week. 11/1 is just a little too tight for me. If he was 14/1 or 16/1 he would be a bet for sure.

Matt Kuchar has a solid record at TPC Boston with top 25’s in each of his last three starts there. The Players Champion finished 38th last week and missed the cut in the USPGA. This has pushed him out to a tempting 50/1. He was 40/1 to win the USPGA and 35/1 to win Firestone so to see 50’s about him in a limited field is appealing. He ranks 3rd in scoring average and has a Tour joint best of 8 top 10’s. I think there is some value in the 50/1.

Lee Westwood looks a good price at 28/1. He has struggled to find form after a poor Open, which seemed to really affect him. He finished 70th at Firestone and MC’d at the USPGA. But I think he will have his tail up after finishing 5th last week. He has started working with Tony Johnston on his short game and the results seem to have come quickly on the evidence of last week. It is his first time at TPC Boston and it is a bit of a gut shot, but I think he will go well at an each way price, which is the only way to back him in a big event.

In Switzerland this week they play the Omega European Masters on the quirky Crans course. It is only 6800 yards but still favours longer hitters who can get to some of the par 4’s and have shorter clubs into the upturned saucer greens. There is only one guy I want to be with this week and that is Miguel Angel Jimenez. He has a great record at Crans and lives by the 1st tee. His form has been a little in and out this year but he has still posted 4 top 10’s including a 9th in The Open. He also posted 3 solid rounds in the USPGA but a 77 in round 2 limited him to a 27th place finish. He missed the cut last week at Gleneagles but some off course issues were taking a fair bit of focus. I think he will be settled this week and with many of the big guns missing looks a decent bet at 33/1.

JK

Deutsche Bank Championship

1 pt each way Bo Van Pelt @ 45/1
2 pts each way Lee Westwood @ 28/1
1 pt each way Matt Kuchar @ 50/1
3 pt win Jason Dufner @ 20/1

Omega European Masters

1 pt each way Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 33/1

2012 running total +201.23 points. This weeks investment 13 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf

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