UA-33754892-1 Archives for 25 September 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Ryder Cup

Ryder Cup Day 3 Singles (Tie no bet)

4 points Rory @ 10/11 to beat Reed (-4)
2.5 points Spieth @ Evs to beat Stenson (-2.5)
3.5 points Pieters @ 8/11 to beat Holmes (+2.55)
2.5 points Rose @ 4/7 to beat Fowler (-2.5)
8 points Bello @ 10/11 to beat Walker (+7.27)
1 point Ryan Moore @ 4/5 to beat Westwood (+0.8)
6 points Dustin @ 4/9 to beat Wood (+2.67)
6 points Willett @ 23/20 to beat Koepka (-6)
3 points Kaymer @ 13/10 to beat Kuchar (+3.9)
2.5 points Fitzpatrick 13/10 to beat Z. Johnson (-2.5)

Ryder Cup - Singles

1 point Garcia and Mickelson to halve @ 6/1 (+6)
1 point Snedeker and Sullivan to halve @ 6/1 (-1)

Ryder Cup - Specials

2 points Europe to win Singles session @ 9/5 (-2)
1 point Europe to win session 8-4 @ 14/1 (-1)

Ryder Cup Day 2 Fourballs

1.5 points Rory and Pieters to beat Koepka and D. Johnson @ 4/5 (+1.2)
7 points Willett and Westwood to beat Holmes and Moore @ 13/10 (-7)
3 points Kaymer and Garcia to beat Mickelson and Kuchar @ 23/20 (-3)
2 points Reed and Spieth to beat Rose and Stenson @ 7/5 (+2.8)

Ryder Cup Day 2 Foursomes

7 points Rory & Pieters @ Evs to beat Fowler & Mickelson (+7)
3 points Stenson & Fitzpatrick @ 13/10 to beat Snedeker & Koepka (-3)
7 points Rose & Wood @ 11/8 to beat Walker & Z Johnson (+9.63)
1 point Garcia & Bello @ 8/5 to beat Reed & Spieth (-1)
2 points Europe to win Morning Foursomes @ 13/8 (+3.25)

Ryder Cup Day 1 Fourballs

2 points Spieth & Reed @ 11/10 to beat Rose & Stenson (-2)
8 points Garcia & Bello @ 5/4 to beat Holmes & Moore (+10)
11 points Kaymer & Willett @ 13/10 to beat Snedeker & Koepka (-11)
4 points Dustin & Kuchar @ 8/11 to beat Rory & Pieters (-4)

Ryder Cup Day 1 Foursomes

2 points Spieth and Reid @ 6/5 to beat Rose and Stenson (13.35) (+2.4)
6 points McIlroy and Sullivan @ 21/20 to beat Mickelson and Fowler (13.50) (-6)
9 points Garcia and Kaymer @ 11/10 to beat Walker and Z. Johnson (14.05) (-9)
7 points D. Johnson and Kuchar @ 8/11 to beat Pieters and Westwood (14.20) (+5.09)

For most of the last year I have been saying, "USA to win the Ryder Cup is the best bet in sport, take anything at Evens or better." The only reason I stopped is because their odds have been slashed into a best price of 8/13 over the last two months. The strange thing is, during these two months of watching their price collapse, I have become less and less keen on the States. In fact, after looking into it a little more closely I have turned full circle and now believe Team Europe are a great bet at 2/1.

Now this is not the end of the world for me. I am not ashamed to say I have a number of multiples rolling into Team USA as well as plenty of cash invested at 5/4, it looked a great bet at the time. I can now lay 4/6 on Betfair or back Europe at odds against too, and just pray to God it isn't a tie!

So why the change of heart? Why has something gone from "the best bet in sport" to something I want to be against?

Well, there are a few reasons. The first being that the USA have made very poor 'wild card' picks.

I would have taken Kuchar, he is a very good all around player that is useful in foursomes as well as fourballs. His form is very consistent and you know what you are going to get, steady if unspectacular. Fowler I probably would have picked despite his very average recent form, he is good for the team if nothing else. But I think Moore and Holmes are bad picks. I would have taken Furyk and Bubba instead. Holmes is a nice player. He is long and has a decent iron game which suits this course but he is questionable putter, especially under the gun, he is a very slow player and has no natural pairings in this team. Moore showed how tired he was at Crooked Stick two weeks ago after playing 7 in a row, a week off saw him perform incredibly well at the Tour Champs (for us) and he should have won. This course does not set up as well for him, he will be tired and a little flat, he did not attend the practice round at Hazeltine with the other fringe players and he is a bit of a loner. He has a great matchplay record but this is his Ryder Cup debut.

Furyk to me is a player in great form, having shot 58 recently he is a gutsy grinder who is intimidating. Sure he doesn't have a good Ryder Cup record but as a player who would you be more scared of playing? An experienced Major winner looking to set his record straight in what is almost certainly his last Ryder Cup or a tired Ryder Cup virgin? Furyk was Davis Loves' final pick, he changed his mind after the Tour Champs and probably Mickelson's press conference. Moore got picked to prove the 'delayed final pick' a worthwhile initiative, to make the Ryder Cup task force correct. In fact, all the delay does is stop strategies being put in place and definitely does not allow the final pick to get ready, mentally or physically.

Bubba Watson was not picked for one reason. He looked like a disruptive influence to the team. Why else? Sure, last week was his first top 20 since March and that was in a 30 man field but in that time he also hasn't missed a cut. He is number 7 in the world and made it to the Tour Champs, more than most of the team managed to do. Again, this course would have been the perfect fit for him and he is a tough player to stand on the first tee of a Ryder Cup with. More ludicrous is the fact he has been added to an enormous Vice Captain list. So he can be there as a disruptive member of a team he can't play in? Utter nonsense. The US have overcomplicated this and it may come back to bite them.

Another reason is a lot of the US team that qualified automatically have lost form. The bottom 4 players on my predicted form rankings are all American. (Zach Johnson, Holmes, Fowler with Walker at the bottom.)

A third reason is the course. It is fairly lenient from the tee. There are a lot of doglegs and frankly the course is not that interesting. They have flipped a few holes since Y E Yang's 2009 USPGA win to try and make it a little more exciting and remodelled a few bunkers. As the course played then, the best holes were the par 3 17th and the par 4 7th. (7 will now be the 16th, 17 will now be the 8th) But it really does not appear to suit the Americans more than the Europeans. The greens are small which suits the Europeans, the greens will be 13 on the stimp which suits the Americans. (It is so hard not to use the word yanks!!) The wind can blow here, although the early forecasts says it shouldn't be an issue, if it does it is an advantage to the Euros. The course won't be the separating factor between these two teams.

So what will be the separating factors?

Well, home country advantage does not appear to be a huge factor these days in the Ryder Cup. Players are so well travelled that they have almost built up an immunity to it. Certainly the US have not proven home field advantage as a factor. In fact the form points heavily to another European victory. They have won the last three, six of the last 7, 8 of the last 10, 11 of the last 15. How do the European's possibly come into this as underdogs every edition??

I believe the separating factor will be how the teams are played, the pairings, the strategy, the deflection of pressure on the players, the vibe in the camp. Europeans know each other better as they travel with each other more often and therefore form friendships and bonds with other players more naturally than the Americans do. Like we have mentioned, who is mates with Holmes? Moore? Reed? And now also Bubba?

The American's big advantage is Woods. He may be more valuable in this Ryder Cup then any he has played in before. He will motivate the players, inspire them and deflect attention from them. Another legend who will not be there in person, but his presence will be felt, is Arnold Palmer. The great man, the icon, the legend passed away this week. His memory will give the Americans a purpose, a bond, a motivation this week just like Seve has done to the Europeans.

So, strategy. Let's look at the Americans first (in my ranking order);

Team USA

Dustin Johnson

Without doubt the standout, strongest member of Team USA . Will surely have a very busy week. Will probably see him pair up with Koepka, Snedeker and possibly Spieth in fourballs.

Jordan Spieth

Anyone who can putt like Spieth is valuable in any format, but his poor iron play is a concern in foursomes. Will probably partner up with Reed again after a successful campaign together in Scotland last time. He is the only reason Justin Thomas was mentioned as a possible wild card, they could have made an awesome pairing.

Patrick Reed

Where Dustin Johsnon has the ability to carry, Reed has the capability of rallying this team. Getting the crowd going, bringing the passion. Course built for him, will have been craving this week for ages. Him firing or not could be the difference.

Matt Kuchar

Will plod on all week and will be tough to beat. Problem for Kuchar is his most natural pairing is a struggling Zach Johnson. They both live at Sea Island. He can provide 'the steady' in a pairing with Holmes, Mickelson or Dustin too. Good man for the team.

Phil Mickelson

This stat is awesome; Phil Mickelson has played every team competition for the USA since 1994 with a combined record of 39-39-18!! Think we will see him with Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore and maybe even Fowler. Will miss his man Keegan Bradley this week.

Brooks Koepka

Has a lot of ability and if he finds top gear again will be hard to beat around here. He could be Phil's new Keegan or a power buddy for Dustin, which could be an unbeatable partnership. Evens (now 10/11) on him to be top US rookie make a bit of sense, considering the only other rookie on Team USA is Moore, who may not get as good a set of pairings.

Ryan Moore

Will be played in foursomes but does not have huge weapons. No natural pairings.

Brandt Snedeker

Might end up playing with Moore, or again maybe Zach Johnson. His long game has been solid but his putting strangely cold. First team event for 3 years, not quite as experienced as one would think.

Rickie Fowler

Big for the team, but hasn't contributed so much. 1-6-5 and not in great form. May rise to the occasion or may get dragged down by form and record. Likely to get decent pairings with Phil, Spieth or Koepka.

Zach Johnson

Will make up some pairings, but if you are an American backer you would trade him now for Furyk. Course, with it's doglegs, will be long enough for him and like Snedeker, needs putter to warm up. But has a strong iron game and will be played heavily one expects.

J.B. Holmes

John Holmes was Bubba's boy and what a natural partnership that could have been once again. Ranks longest on tour in all measured drives. I think he will have an ok week if they can form a new partnership for him. Might play with Walker in fourballs, which might work, but looks relatively weak.

Jimmy Walker

Jimmy Walker has had a great year and picked up a Major along the way. He still ranks bottom of my rankings. Could play with Fowler again but their record reads 1-2-3 in last Ryder and Presidents Cups. I think Holmes for the fourballs, but Walker and Fowler are to wild from the tee to play together and although he is a good putter, I think he shouldn't be used in the foursomes.

Team Europe

Danny Willett

Slowly getting back to form after a huge Masters win and becoming a father, both may have rocked the boat a little, but is getting back to his best. Could see him four ball with Rory, foursomes with Rose or Fitzpatrick. Will inevitably play with Wood at some point , but I hope that does not happen. I just remember the Sunday final round a few years back at the BMW PGA Champs when neither made a birdie when in the final group. I also don't want to see too much of Wood this week.

Rory McIlroy

Awesome win last week and well and truly flying again. Will be walking on air and will be tough to beat. Garcia partnership works but think we may see a new partnership grow with Willett and maybe Pieters.

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Think the Spaniard could have a big week. Natural partner for Garcia and maintained a very high level of form all year despite a brutal schedule. Could foursome with Kaymer too.

Martin Kaymer

Kaymer has been looking better and better, week by week, coming into this. Will probably play with Pieters in fourballs but tough to partner anyone up with him for foursomes with his chipping yips.

Justin Rose

Has been a rock for Europe. Forget Poulter, this guy has modestly put together an ultra impressive record, 9-3-2. Obviously can mentor any of the English debutantes, but I hope he does not get burdened with this task. Pair him with Stenson for foursomes and fourballs and get points on the board. They went 3-0-0 in last Ryder Cup.

Henrik Stenson

Concerns over right knee but if fit and near best he is very hard to beat in any format. He could get 4 points up if paired with Rose, Clarke needs to keep that pairing together and use it.

Thomas Pieters

Should be full of confidence and if occasion does not get to him he could have a big week. He has a lot of game. Kaymer a likely wing man and mentor.

Matt Fitzpatrick

Useful in the foursomes, good putter in good form. Westwood and Sullivan look like natural fits. Could even foursome with Rory, but likely paired with weaker partners.

Sergio Garcia

Hopefully we will see a buzzed Sergio this week playing the Ian Poulter, passionate role. I like him a lot with Bello in all formats, but went 1-1 with Rory in 2014. Foursomes record of 9-2-2 should see him get 5 games. I would like to see him play 4 with Bello and see Stenson play 4 with Rose and fit the others around this strong foundation.

Chris Wood

Not in bad form and a solid putter. BMW win was huge but I wouldn't be playing him much. Maybe foursomes with Westwood, but as horrible as it sounds, I would be tempted to 'Andrew Coltart' him straight into the singles.

Andy Sullivan

Seems to be heading in the right direction again and has some experience in The States. Played well at Memorial. Again, would not overplay him. Foursomes with Willett or Westwood and keep him fresh and confident for the singles.

Lee Westwood

Fortunate to get a pick. Russell Knox could have been more useful and certainly brings better level of form, but Lee is an out and out Ryder Cupper. His record backs it up 17-9-6. I would use him for the foursomes and sit him for the fourballs, unless showing a bit more in practice. Useful partner to the weaker, less experienced players and a big part of the team room.

The conclusion appears to be the same old story. Europe appear more of a team and a team with more options. Although they lack experience, not just in Ryder Cups, but on the world stage in many cases, they fit together better. If the rookies are not over played and keep their bottle then Europe should at worst keep this close.

I think the key is the pairings. If Stenson is fit and can play every match, then let him play with the rock that is Rose. Let them play all 5 matches available to them, they are rested. Same with Garcia and Bello. They are going to get points and demoralise the opposition. Play Willett with Rory, especially in foursomes but again, maybe in all 4 paired games. Pieters works with Kaymer in fourballs and Westwood can take it in turns with Sullivan and Fitzpatrick in the foursomes and a perhaps a fourball with Wood.

On the other hand the US do not have this option. If it were singles throughout then you would like the Americans, but it isn't. They are going to have to chop and change, they don't have the mini teams within the team. I think Koepka is one that can make partnerships if he steps up. Him with Holmes, Dustin or Phil could cause some damage, but if Europe play to their strengths and don't let 'everyone have a go' and chop and change, then I think they sneak a win against a potentially tired US Team.

Ryder Cup - Outright

2.5 points Europe to win @ 2/1 (-2.5)

3.5 points Europe +2 to win @ Evs (-3.5)

Ryder Cup - Specials

1 point each way Rafa Cabrera Bello to be top combined points scorer @ 40/1 (1/4 1-4) (-2)

1 point each way top Rafa Cabrera Bello top European points scorer @ 16/1 (1/4 1-3) (+4)

2 point Rafa Cabrera Bello top European Debutant @ 9/2 (-2)

5.5 points Brooks Koepka to be Top US Debutant @ 10/11 (+5)

1 points each way Brooks Koepka to be Top American points scorer @ 14/1 (1/4 1-3) (+3.5)

This week's P&L = -0.44
This week’s investment = 136 points

This week's Outright P&L = -6
This weeks's Outright Investment = 6 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +5.56
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 130 points

2016 Total P&L = -88.48 points

2016 Total Investment =  1274.9.9 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  -14.75 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 311.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -73.53 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 968.4 points

2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.