UA-33754892-1 Archives for 25 September 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Alfred Dunhill Championship and Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital Open

Last week was close but no cigar. From early Thursday morning thru to late Sunday evening it looked like we were going to have a winning week and we ended up losing every bet! Jason Day had a good week at the Tour Championship and looked certain for at least a playoff spot until a costly bogey on the 71st hole. Hunter Mahan had a great week. He was at the top of the leaderboard all week and ended up in a playoff with Bill Haas. He had plenty of chances in real time too but despite hitting great putts he could not convert. He lost the sudden death playoff to Bill Haas who made an unbelievable up and down on the 2nd playoff hole to stay alive (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zf1lp-LC_n0). Mahan deserved to win but lost on the third extra hole.

In Austria our two big priced runners did us proud. Daniel Gaunt opened with an impressive 67 to be in second after round one. He made too many doubles during the week to really contend on Sunday but it shows he could be going the right way. Perhaps one to watch. Jason Barnes, our second selection, opened up with two solid rounds to be inside the top 20 but again fizzled a little on the weekend. I was a little disappointed with Barnes. He is playing well and is more than good enough to get in the top 20 in this company. I think sometimes the problem when you get unexpected tour starts is your only goal is to make the cut and when that is done you have no direction or goals and you end up going the wrong way.

Anyway we lost all 14 points invested, even if it felt like we got a lot right! Our 2011 total is now down to 174.04 points or £1740 profit to a £10 stake.

This week there is a roll reversal for the two main tours. A nothing tournament in the States and a big one in Europe.

The Justin Timberlake takes place in Las Vegas this week and is the first event of the Fall Series. Nick Watney is the 12/1 favourite in a very weak field. He is definitely the class act here and certainly looks a worthy favourite. He lives in Vegas and has two top 6’s in 6 starts at TPC Sumerlin, which has been the easiest par 71 on the US Tour for the past two years with a stroke average of 68.956. It has big greens that are relatively flat and this week is all about going low.

This makes Watney appealing as he registered only 3 bogies here last year and ranks 6th in scoring average on tour. He has two wins and 9 top 10’s this year. 13th in putting is a good sign when players need to go low and 9th in birdie average. In this field 12/1 is an excellent price. He was starting better events with stronger fields than this at similar prices earlier in the year, like at the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow. One of the strongest fields of the year and he was a 16-18/1 shot. He is definitely a bet here.

I am going to put in a couple of decent young players to run along side Watney. First up Kyle Stanley at 25/1. The stats - 10th in driving distance, 12th in total driving, 27th in greens, 11th in eagles, 13th in birdies, 10th in par breakers. They are good stats to see in a go low event. He finished 2nd in the John Deere to a miraculous final hole birdie by Steve Stricker. The John Deere is another low scoring event. My one concern with him, the only thing stopping me from having a big bet on him is his putting. He ranks 174th in putting. Still 25/1 is fair and we should get a good run out of him.

Spencer Levin has had a solid year. He has posted 4 top 10’s including a second place finish in Cancun. Last year he played his last 55 holes here in a bogey free 19 under par to finish 4th. He is 14th in scoring average and looks a decent price at 40/1 here.

Over to the Dunhill Championship. A strong field has gathered at the home of golf for this weeks European Tour event. 180 professionals make up the field with only 60 making the cut. That combined with links golf in unpredictable conditions were luck of the draw makes a huge difference makes it a poor betting event. Match bets are recommended on players you fancy to do well instead of lumping on outright prices. However, lets still try and find a couple of value bets!

I am surprised to see that Donald is not favourite. In the last four weeks he has extended his lead as number 1 in the world by over a point and is without question the form player in the field, well, in the world. He has played 26 events this year and finished in the top ten 21 times!! Incredible consistency. Not only that but he won the Scottish Open on a links course. Westwood and Mcilroy have not played for weeks. 12/1 about Donald has a nice look about it. I would not be keen on backing short priced players in the Dunhill Links but 12/1 Donald looks to good to ignore. Kaymer is 14/1...... how? Look at his form to Donald’s...... how are they the same price with some bookmakers? Must have a lot of German punters!

At bigger prices Stephen Gallacher looks decent at 80/1, Edfors and Tom Lewis (who won the St Andrews Links here earlier in the year) need consideration at 100/1. Jamieson at 175/1 is value as is Fleetwood at 200/1. Jbe Kruger at 250/1 is huge if the weather stays good. Havret 250/1, Dixon 500/1 and Wentworth’s Steve Brown at 750/1 all look generous prices. These players are underrated and worth a look in their 18 hole and 72 hole matchbets this week. But lets pick a couple of them in the outright market this week.

I like Tom Lewis’ chances this week and 100/1 looks fair but I rate his chances on a par with Tommy Fleetwood’s. Therefore taking 200/1 Fleetwood over 100/1 Lewis is a no brainer, although I would not put you off backing Lewis, 100/1 is ok but 200/1 is big. Lewis will definitely be of interest when at St Andrews in his match bets but don’t expect flashy prices, they know about him!

Jbe Kruger. Look to back him in matches on Thursday and Friday but the weather may close in on the weekend with light rain in Saturday then colder and heavy rain on Sunday. This will not suit the big hitting South African. Havret and Dixon need things to full their way. When they are hot they are hot but when they are not they really are not. This week there are a lot of variables and it may well not full their way. Again, keep an eye in their match ups but not for me in the outrights. 750/1 Brown is not that generous in review. A made cut here would be a great achievement for the Walker Cup player who turned pro last week when finishing 3rd at Tour School Stage 1. That leaves a choice between Gallacher and Jamieson.

Scott Jamieson gets the nod. 175/1 is very fair and makes 80/1 Gallacher look a little tight. I played a lot with Jamieson when he came back from University in the States. He was playing Euro Pro and I said at the time he was way to good for that tour, he already looked the real deal. I had not said that before or since about a player. That’s how much he stood out. Great rhythm, great striker and a great attitude. He has had a strong year so far and a big week here is certainly not out of the question. I think he is good enough and I think he knows he is good enough so should give us a good run at a big price.

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -
www.geoff-banks.com

The Alfred Dunhill Championship

2.5 pts Luke Donald @ 12/1
0.5 pts each way Tommy Fleetwood @ 200/1
0.5 pts each way Scott Jamieson @ 175/1

Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

2.5 pts Nick Watney @ 12/1
1.5 pts each way Kyle Stanley @ 25/1
1 pt each way Spencer Levin @ 40/1

Special Bets

2 pts each way double Luke Donald @ 12/1 and Nick Watney @ 12/1

2 pt treble. Tom Lewis to bt Darren Clarke @ 10/11, Els to bt Goosen @ 10/11, Petterson to bt Reavie @ 10/11. 72 hole match bets

2011 running total +174.04 pts This weeks investment 18 pts


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.





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