UA-33754892-1 Archives for 25 November 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Nedbank Challenge and World Challenge

The DP World Tour Championship Dubai provided one of the best finishes of the year. Rory, as predicted, won impressively beating a charging Justin Rose. Rory finished with 5 straight birdies to beat the 62 shooting Rose by 2. Our picks, Hanson and Olesen, had solid weeks but could not keep up with the pace. Rose, Rory and Louis have the ability to blow a field away when in this type of form. We lost 6 points and slipped back to +168.86 points of profit for the year.

So, with the players out looking to line their pockets pre-Christmas shopping lets try and do the same. This week we have the Nedbank Challenge at Sun City, South Africa and The World Challenge at Sherwood CC, California.

The Nedbank looks very competitive. I don’t like Westwood in his current form despite being double defending champion. He played good at the HSBC but has too many shockers like last week to be backed at 4/1. His short game is awful and he will have to be on top of his ball striking if he is to contend here. Also, after a disappointing season is he to be trusted at Sun City? Not for me.

Quality ball strikers who are known for their accuracy dominate the roll of honour here. I love the chances of Oosthuizen and Rose. The problem is I can’t split them. Louis is playing great every time he tees it up and knows this course as well as anyone. He has won the Di Data here and must be favourite to win this. Rose is maybe the best ball striker on the planet right now. He is so solid and this test will suit him perfectly. The only other player I like is Francesco Molinari. At 16/1 there is a little value in him. The scoring tends to go pretty low here and with his suspect putting and lack of weapons on a long course I am not sure he can be backed. For me Louis is the one. A past winner on the course who is playing as good as anyone in the world is difficult to ignore.

The World Challenge, like the betting, is all about one player….. Tiger Woods. And rightly so. The defending champion is looking to win his own event for the sixth time. He has not played since the CIMB in Malaysia when he closed with a 63 to finish 4th. He lost to Rory the next day in an 18 hole challenge match in China. He may well win here but there are still plenty of question marks about him and for me there is no doubt that he will be looking to put a lot of swing changes into tournament play for the first time. 11/4 seems a bit chancy to me, especially in a quality line up.

I am looking to take him on with Bradley 22/1, Dufner 12/1, Van Pelt 14/1 and Zach Johnson 16/1. Bradley seems a big price at 22/1. The 7027 yard Nicklaus course should set up well for him but he has not been bang on since the USPGA. There is not much each way value in the price and for me it is a big ask for him to win this at the moment. Zach Johnson would have won this last year if it were not for two late Woods birdies. His accuracy will be rewarded around this short, tight track and his lack of fire power will be neutralised. We know he is not scared of winning but at 16/1 it is hard to see him as better value than BVP and Dufner.

Dufner moves it both ways but will love his preferred fade around here. He debuts in the event but when you consider his recent form he could be the man to beat. He shot -14 to finish 2nd to BVP in the ISPS Perth International, -13 in the CIMB in Malaysia and -19 to finish 2nd in the HSBC. He is worth a go at 12/1. Bo Van Pelt is only player to rival Dufner’s form. He beat Dufner by one to win in Perth, shot -21 in the CIMB to finish 2nd, has 10 top 10’s this season in the States and finished 10th last year in this event. He will fancy this as a way to redeem a painful loss at AT&T National to Woods. 14/1 is fair.

The problem I have when you look at the prices is you can’t back them both each way and with Woods’ record here it is hard to back them win only so lets wrap them up with the two players I really fancy in South Africa and get some each way value through a different method. To really put my head on the chopping block, I would be amazed if we can’t make up at least one each way double with these picks.


Nedbank Challenge

2 pts Louis Oosthuizen @ 9/2


Special Bets

1 pt ew double Dufner @ 12/1 and Oosthuizen @ 9/2 (70.5/1)
1 pt ew double Bo Van Pelt @ 14/1 and Oosthuizen @ 9/2 (81.5/1)
1 pt ew double Dufner @ 12/1 and Rose @ 9/2 (70.5/1)
1 pt ew double Bo Van Pelt @ 14/1 and Rose @ 9/2 (81.5/1)


2012 running total +168.86 points. This weeks investment 10 points. This weeks P&L = -10pts.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.


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