UA-33754892-1 Archives for 25 March 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Shell Houston Open Update

I would like to add one more into the staking plan for the Shell Houston Open after having another look through. Brian Harmon has been quite progressive this season for a rookie. One very much in the same hold as John Huh, a winner a few weeks ago. His last five weeks have been 20th, 26th, 12th, Cut, 15th. He posted an incredible 61 in the second round of the Honda Classic and finished 15th last week at Bay Hill after opening with a horrible 77.

He can be backed generally at 150/1 which looks a big price to me. I accept it is a big ask but that is reflected in the price.

Shell Houston Open.

1pt each way Brian Harmon @ 150/1

2012 running total -5.87 points. This weeks investment 12 points
(Already Advised - 6 pts Tiger Woods @ 13/2 US Masters, 4 pts Tiger Woods @ 7/1 US Masters)

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
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Shell Houston Open

It was great to see Woods back to pretty much his best last week, especially when you have backed him at a tasty 8/1. He now ranks first in both ball striking and total driving. Last time he lead both of those categories was in 2000 when he won three Majors. This bodes well for out ante post Masters bets. The 6 points invested at 8/1 returned 48 points. Bo Van Pelt became a non-runner before the off so stakes returned. So all in, including our 10 point ante post position on Tiger for the Masters, we stand at -5.87 points for the year. We have 6 points at 13/2 and 4 points at 7/1 on Woods, he is now a general 7/2 chance, 4/1 in a couple of places. So he was worth backing early!

Another worth backing early is Bo Van Pelt. He is 100/1 for The Masters. He debuted last year finishing 8th and is in great form this year. He has a Tour best of four top tens this season aided by ranking 2nd in putting, 2nd in birdie average, 6th in total driving and 4th in the all round. He rewarded followers of these picks by winning in Malaysia last year shooting -23 on a demanding course, beating a strong field by 6. He can play and I can only imagine the 100/1 is available as he withdrew from Bay Hill last week. The only information I can find is it was a ‘knee injury’ that kept him out. If that knee injury is as serious as Tigers achilles injury he is worth a play at what appears to be a huge price.

To this week and the Tour gathers at Redstone Golf Club in Houston for the Shell Houston Open. A strong field lines up for the final event before The Masters and if Phil Mickelson wins it will mean the first five in the Masters betting will all have won their last event going in. Phil Mickelson defends and 12/1 is an ok price. The course sets up well for him with its similarities to Augusta. Three times in the last 7 years Phil has won the week before The Masters. For me the combination of being 158th in driving accuracy and 107th in greens in regulation is off-putting for a 12/1 shot. It is a putters course and he ranks 3rd in that category. He is not for me though.

Westwood is 12/1 as well. He has two decent finished here the last few years 11th in ’09 and 8th in ’10. For me he does not putt well enough and at 12/1 is not a bet. Keegan Bradley does look like a good bet though. He is one of the most in form players on Tour with 8 from 8 top 25’s this year. He simply does everything well. There is not one part of his game that is truly outstanding but every part is solid. For me he looks to fit the bill here and 20/1 is a good price. The only concern would be he has not played here before but this course should really suit him.

Kyle Stanley’s form has taken a little dip the last few weeks, missing the cut at The Honda and finishing 51st in the WGC at Doral. But this looks like a good opportunity for him. The only thing that seems to have faulted him the last few weeks is the putter. These greens will be much more like Phoenix where he won and not as grainy as Florida. At 50/1 he seems to be worth an interest.

I also had a long look at John Senden (50/1) whose ball striking continues to be amongst the best on Tour but this is too putting orientated to include him.

Shell Houston Open.

2.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 20/1
1pt each way Kyle Stanley @ 50/1

Special Bet

1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt to win the Masters @ 100/1

2012 running total -5.87 points. This weeks investment 10 points
(Already Advised - 6 pts Tiger Woods @ 13/2 US Masters, 4 pts Tiger Woods @ 7/1 US Masters)

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments