UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 November 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Australian Open and Alfred Dunhill Championship

Last Week

It is important to look back at things and see where you go wrong and last week was I definitely got it wrong. This time of year markets are very lopsided. Known players take a huge percentage of the book and it is hard to see ‘local’ players competing. There is very little depth. Often the best approach is sitting out and watching but that is a tough thing to do. It’s too easy to have the attitude of you got to be in it to win it. Last week really felt like I made some token picks, when in reality, there wasn’t much I liked.

Needless to say our two doubles lost, costing us 2.5 points and Stone, despite being in good position through 27 holes, missed the cut. Another point went.

We lost 3.5 points on the week. Not disastrous but still feels like a waste. If we are going to lose, we may as well do it properly!

This Week

Aussie Open

The market here, rightly so, is dominated by Scott (3/1), Day (15/2) and Mcilroy (13/2). It’s hard to see past these three. The ‘challengers’ just in behind them in the market are capable of mounting a challenge if at their best. But Senden (25/1), Ogilvy (28/1), Baddley (28/1), Chalmers (33/1) and Fraser (40/1) have not really shown anything to make me believe they are just going to find it here. Out of these five it is, perhaps, Baddley that makes the most appeal as he has great memories of his win here in 1999 and is making the right noises after a change of coach. But with the top three in the market all proving their superior form and ability of late, it is hard to oppose them with someone in this price range.

The two I quite like, at slightly bigger prices are Adam Bland and Scott Gardiner.

Adam Bland has shown some decent form in Australia and looks decent value at 100/1. Scott Gardiner was in rank form for most of 2013 on the PGA Tour but regained his playing rights with an impressive run in the playoff series. He finished 3rd in the Hotel Fitness Championship and 2nd in the Tour Championship, where he finished with a disappointing 72. Out of the two I think Gardiner is the one to be with.

He has made a poor start to his 2014 season in the US, missing his first 3 cuts, but showed a return to some form at Mayakoba, finishing 36th. He is worth a small each way play at 100/1.

Alfred Dunhill Championship

I like this event from a punting perspective. It is played on a great course, in immaculate shape, in great weather. It is as fair as golf can get. I played this twice and loved it there. The only two things to be concerned about as a player is the wildlife and the heat. They can both be very dangerous. One year I remember David Lynn and his wife getting stung by a scorpion as they slept. The same year 7 people withdrew due to heat exhaustion, as temperatures climbed towards 50 degrees. Luckily it is a dry heat.

Schwartzel is the best player on show and the former Masters Champion who won this by 12 last year is a deserved 7/2 favourite. If he had closed out, as everyone excepted, last week he would not be a 7/2 chance, possibly nearer 2/1. I don’t like getting involved in short ones in outright markets but for favourite backers he looks a very decent bet at the price.

The reason why I think he looks like a very decent bet is because I can’t really see who is capable of stopping him. Richard Sterne (14/1) is a player who is very hard to predict. At his best he is lethal, a match for anyone, but he disappears for months at a time. He has a great record here and is a past winner but it would be hard to justify taking 14/1 about a player who has not had a top 10 since before the summer.

Ross Fisher is next at 22/1. The course sets up well for him, his game appears to be in good shape but there is a reason why he has returned to Leopard Creek for the first time since 2007. That reason is his career was on a steady upward path from 2007 onwards and at the moment it is on the downward curve back to where it was then. If he were still a top 50 player in the world he would not be playing in South Africa this week. Scoring goes pretty low here and you have to make putts. That is the thing that puts a line through Fisher for me.

George Coetzee at 25/1 has never won and is coming back from injury. He says he is close to his best but at the price he can’t really be considered. Hennie Otto is playing nicely but struggles to win, as he showed last week when he was handed the SA Open by Charl before passing the trophy on like a hot potato.

That moves me nicely on to Bredon De Jonge. 25/1 in this line up is generous. He does not win often but the Zimbabwean rarely plays in fields this weak and this looks like a great chance for him. He has finished 16,7,12 the last 3 weeks. I think this price is big about him and looks the obvious choice to take Schwartzel on with. The most reassuring thing is the upturn in his putting stats recently.

Two young players interested me in the middle of this market. Daan Huizing and Andrea Pavan. Huizing played well last week, is full of ability and should love this lay out that rewards the longer hitter. Pavan stormed to the finish of the Challenge Tour season showing what he is capable of, he also finished 7th here two years ago. I like at least one of them to put in a strong showing, but it is hard to think the prices are overly generous. 80/1 Huizing and 55/1 Pavan look about right.

I am however going to make a play on John Hahn at a big price. The young American who played in this years US Open has played some great stuff throughout the Qualifying Schools. He won his first stage in the States before withdrawing from stage 2 in favour of Europe where he finished 1,5,7 in the three stages, shooting 43 under in the process. He shot only three rounds over 70 in the 14 played. South Africa may be a bit of an eyeopener for him but one can’t doubt his form and ability and if this is maintained then 175/1 is a big price.

Australian Open

0.5 points each way Scott Gardiner @ 100/1

Alfred Dunhill Championship

1.5 points each way Brendon De Jonge @ 25/1

0.5 points each way John Hahn @ 175/1

Special Bet

1 pt double Charl Schwartzel @ 7/2 and Adam Scott @ 3/1

2013 running total = -9.22 points. This week’s investment 6 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.