UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 May 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

AT&T Byron Nelson and Dubai Duty Free Irish Open

I have just arrived back from Pebble Beach, it was a long flight back from San Francisco, so I will be fairly brief. We almost did well with our cross doubles last week. Lowry and Poulter both got placed, unfortunately Lowry split his place with one other and Poulter shared 5th place with five others. Our stakes got diluted accordingly and we made a loss of 5.9 points on the week.

I have had quite a few messages asking why there were no outright picks last week and why I tipped the doubles. The reasons are pretty simple. I liked the two short priced favourites in Spieth and Rory and the players that I wanted to back were not big prices. It was the only way we could one, get some value and two, not stake a huge amount. I felt we were betting the places and therefore we would have needed more than one to place to show profit anyway.

On to this week. Let’s look at Ireland first. Rory looks a very worthy favourite. He is playing close to his home, he is playing a links course, he is the best player in the field, he hits more greens than anyone else playing and has the best scoring average. On the downside he has lots of distractions and extra pressure to deal with. He could also be physically and mentally tired. 7/2 and 4/1 in a place is fair, especially as his short game stats continue to improve. I like his chances this week but I am not going to get involved with any player in a decent field at this price.

I am going to back Emiliano Grillo at 66/1. His form reads 11-3-6-38. His 38th last week saw him in 3rd after 36 holes before an awful 3rd round of 80. He has been very consistent all year and looks decent value to go well again. I am also going to back last week’s winner Byeong Hun An. He is obviously playing incredible golf right now and has been a talent many have been aware of since this time last year. I say this despite him winning the US Amateur at the age of 17, but he recaught the eye last year on the Challenge Tour. He looked so comfortable and unfazed last week. I believe Chubby has got another huge player on his hands and I see no reason why he can’t continue his strong play into this week. He has a great attitude and can deal with the spotlight.

Bernd Wiesberger has been a little quiet of late but has gained some valuable experience from playing in the States since a hot start to the year in the Middle East. Other Austrian players have told me he doesn’t feel comfortable in America but he ranks 4th in greens in reg, 11th in putting and 6th in scoring in Europe. That’s enough to make the 80/1 good enough.

On to the Byron Nelson. This course has been punished by rain over the last few weeks and that is a trend set to continue this week. It is going to be wet but TPC Las Colinas is only 7100 yards long so it won’t rule out the short hitters. Now I think Spieth wins. He played some great golf last week and is really determined to go well in his home State. He has no weakness and 5/1 is very tempting. However, I am going to try and sneak a little more value further down.

I really liked the look of two players that have now withdrawn, Jason Day and Ian Poulter. This makes 5/1 Spieth look even better! I like Justin Thomas at 33/1. He is statistically very strong and coming off of 4 consecutive top 25s including a 7th last time out at Quail Hollow. He is passed over as he is making his debut here and I think his stats are flattered a little by an easy schedule. He also ranks averagely in scrambling and putting which I think is going to be key this week.

Matt Kuchar is the perfect fit for this. He has three top 15s in his last four starts here and is putting as well as ever. 30/1+ is fair for him, but it isn’t great value for a player who isn’t quite at the top of his game.

Jimmy Walker is a good price at 33/1. He has gone a little quiet the last few weeks but being long and ranking number 1 in putting makes him appealing. He has nothing better than a tie for 38th since winning in March and hasn’t finished better than 27th here. This is obviously a concern and therefore, despite looking decent value, is left out.

Brooks Koepka is back in the US again after playing the BMW PGA last week. He has not had a top 20 since Doral in the first week in March and missed the cut here last year. Statistically he remains strong on a tough schedule and ranks 14th in putting. He has played some good golf of late despite the results, he keeps making one or two big numbers each week. I am going to take a chance with him at 66/1 this week.

Harris English is also 66/1 and has a very similar feel to Koepka. The results have not quite come for him despite playing some good golf. English ranks 9th in scoring but most importantly is his improved putting, he ranks 26th which for him is outstanding. He has a stellar long game and is also worth a go to find some form.

I like Snedeker’s chances as he is putting so well but I think his long game is still decidedly average and 25/1 is not big enough to back.

I am gong to back one more at a juicy price. Will Wilcox at 200/1. He missed the cut here last year but has two top 16s on the Web.Com in recent weeks. He does everything pretty well and could put in a performance at a big price.

AT&T Byron Nelson

0.75 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 66/1 (-1.5 pts)
0.75 points each way Harris English @ 66/1 (-1.5 pts)
0.5 points each way Will Wilcox @ 200/1 (-1 pts)

Dubai Duty Free Irish Open

0.75 points each way Bernd Wiesberger @ 80/1 (+15 points)
1.25 points each way Byeong Hun An @ 40/1 (-2.25 pts)
0.75 points each way Emiiano Grillo @ 66/1 (-1.5 pts)

2015 running total =  -50.86 points. This week’s investment 9.5 points. This weeks P&L = +7.25 points

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

The Open
1.5 points each way Bubba Watson @ 40/1

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.