UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 June 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

French Open and Quicken Loans National

Quicken Loans National - In Running (After rd 3)

To Win


Sim Best Bet: no bet
Sim Value Bet: 14.58 points Abraham Ancer @ 4.6 (-14.58)
My Bet: no bet


Quicken Loans National - In Running (After rd 2)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 5.87 points Francesco Molinari @ 6 (+29.35)
Sim Value Bet: 2.73 points Marc Leishman @ 15 (-2.73)
My Bet: 5.87 points Francesco Molinari @ 6 (+29.35)



French Open - In Running (After rd 2)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 2.13 points Marcus Kinhut @ 12 (-2.13)
Sim Value Bet: 2 points Julian Suri @ 34 (-2)
My Bet: 2.13 points Marcus Kinhut @ 12 (-2.13)


Quicken Loans National - In Running (After rd 1)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 3.14 points Francesco Molinari @ 13 (+39.25)
Sim Value Bet: 3.70 points Marc Leishman @ 17 (-3.7)
My Bet: 3.70 points Marc Leishman @ 17 (-3.7)

French Open - In Running (After rd 1)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 4.91 points Justin Thomas @ 8.5 (-4.91)
Sim Value Bet: 2 points SeungSu Han @ 101 (-2)
My Bet: 2 points Dean Burmester @ 51 (-2)



French Open


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 4.71 points Justin Thomas @ 15 (-4.71)
Sim Value Bet: 4.71 points Justin Thomas @ 15 (-4.71)
My Bet: 4.71 points Justin Thomas @ 15 (-4.71)

Top 5


Sim Best Bet: 18.87 points Justin Thomas @ 4 (-18.87)
Sim Value Bet: 4.85 points Eric Van Rooyen @ 46 (-4.85)
My Bet: 18.87 points Justin Thomas @ 4 (-18.87)


Top 10


Sim Best Bet: 11.05 points Justin Thomas @ 2.62 (+28.95)
Sim Value Bet: 5.43 points Miyazato Yusaku @ 29 (-5.43)
My Bet: 9.26 points Ryan Fox @ 10 (+28.95)


Top 20


Sim Best Bet: 15.40 points Tyrrell Hatton @ 2.7 (+26.19)
Sim Value Bet: 15.21 points JinHo Choi @ 15 (-15.21)
My Bet: 15.63 points Ryan Fox @ 5 (-15.63)


First Round Leader

Sim Best Bet: No bet
Sim Value Bet: no bet
My Bet: no bet


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

17.10 points Pieters to beat Bjeergaard @ 1.91 (+15.57)
8.36 points Garcia to beat Cabrera Bello @ 1.91 (+7.61)
9.45 points Fleetwood to beat Noren @ 1.91 (-9.45)
11.89 points Poulter to beat Sullivan @ 1.83 (push)

Quicken Loans National


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 5.56 points Rickie Fowler @ 8 (-5.56)
Sim Value Bet: 2.37 points Gary Woodland @ 51 (-2.37)
My Bet: 5.56 points Rickie Fowler @ 8 (-5.56)

Top 5


Sim Best Bet: 8.59 points Francesco Molinari @ 5.5 (+38.65)
Sim Value Bet: 5.66 points Gary Woodland @ 11 (-5.66)
My Bet: 8.59 points Francesco Molinari @ 5.5 (+38.65)

Top 10


Sim Best Bet: 10.91 Francesco Molinari @ 3 (+21.81)
Sim Value Bet: 10.91 Francesco Molinari @ 3 (+21.81)
My Bet: 10.91 Francesco Molinari @ 3 (+21.81)


Top 20


Sim Best Bet: 10.07 points Gary Woodland @ 3 (-10.07)
Sim Value Bet: 5.44 points Ollie Schniederjans @ 6 (-5.44)
My Bet: 10.07 points Gary Woodland @ 3 (-10.07)


First Round Leader

Sim Best Bet: No Bet
Sim Value Bet: No Bet
My Bet: No Bet


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

24.83 points Fowler to beat Woods @ 1.53 (-24.83)
8.80 points Holmes to beat Hossler @ 1.83 (-8.80)
6.98 points Molinari to beat Leishman @ 1.83 (+5.58)
12.27 points Na to beat Lingmerth @ 1.83 (-12.27)
5.84 points Woodland to beat Walker @ 1.83 (+4.85)





2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 463.26 points


This week's P&L = +125.43
This week’s investment = 366.24 points


This week's Outright P&L = +147.17
This weeks's Outright Investment = 260.72 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -21.74
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 105.52 points



2018 Total P&L = -536.74

2018 Total Investment = 15760.97 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = -29.42
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 7184.40 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -507.32
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 8596.20 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

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