UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 July 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The 2016 USPGA Championship

I am in Tuscany, with unfortunately once again, bad internet. I am at a wedding so will have to keep this fairly brief.

Baltusrol lower course is a classic bit of golf course design. Designed by A.W. Tillinghast and opened in 1922 it has undergone two redesigns. One fairly major by Robert Trent Jones in the 1950s and another, more lenient, by his son Rees more recently. It is a classic, four courses in The States have been designated National Historical Landmarks, in 2014 Baltusrol joined Merion, Oakmont and Pinehurst with this distinction.

It has thrown up solid, accurate ball strikers as winners in the seven US Open's it has hosted.
Phil Mickelson won the only hosted USPGA here in 2005, on -4. One of the reasons for the high scoring and the ball striking test is the size of the greens, they are bent grass and average just 6402 square feet. This means you have to get your ball on the short stuff from the tee, have an excellent short game as everyone will miss them, as well as being a good iron player. Bjorn went the lowest here in 2005 with a third round 63. When Bjorn is on, it is his iron play that stands out.

Let's get to the three main simulations.

Here's my top 10 from the;

USPGA and Similar Courses sim.

-14 Tony Finau
-14 Robert Streb
-13 Henrik Stenson
-13 Rory McIlroy
-12 Victor Dubuisson
-11 Justin Thomas
-11 Steve Stricker
-10 Jim Furyk
-10 Jonas Blixt
-9 Justin Rose
-9 Jason Dufner

Season Form Sim.

-12 Jason Day
-11 Rory McIlroy
-10 Dustin Johnson

-9 Jordan Spieth
-8 Sergio Garcia
-8 Phil Mickelson
-8 Henrik Stenson
-8 Rafa Cabrera Bello
-8 Danny Willett
-8 Charl Schwartzel

Predicted Form Sim.

-14 Henrik Stenson
-14 Phil Mickelson
-14 Sergio Garcia
-14 Dustin Johnson
-14 Rory Mcilroy
-12 Jason Day
-12 Tyrrell Hatton
-11 Steve Stricker
-10 Zach Johnson
-10 Charl Schwartzel
-10 Andy Sullivan
-10 Lee Westwood
-10 Jordan Spieth

Overall Sim.

-12 Rory McIlroy
-12 Henrik Stenson
-10 Jason Day
-10 Phil Mickelson
-10 Dustin Johnson
-9 Steve Stricker
-9 Tyrrell Hatton
-8 Sergio Garcia
-8 Justin Rose
-8 Charl Schwartzel
-8 Adam Scott

Out of the favourites we know
Dustin Johnson is having a great summer and, as we would expect, he was easily the longest from the tee in Canada last week, but add that to the fact he was the 5th most accurate too and he has to be a contender. The way he is driving it is going to make any golf course easy and he is running hot. However, the New York crowds and very hot, humid weather could get under his skin a little. He appears the most likely but he is not for me at 8/1.

Jason Day has been out of sorts. He showed a little form in the last two round of The Open and had a flattering final round in Canada to see him finish 14th. He still ranks number one in putting on Tour and his short game is way better this season, but it is his accuracy from the tee that is costing him and he will need to improve that to get into contention here. If he drives it better he also has a big chance.

Similar for
Rory, he is playing nicely and any improvement, even to just average putting, would see him probably win. It is hard to take 9/1 about him because of this, but he has won the last two even yeared USPGAs. Out of the favourites he (at 9/1) and Mickelson (22/1) are the only two I think are the right price for backers.

Spieth has struggled all summer. He has always had a barely above average long game but it is the fact that his always suspect short putting has finally come out. He can get over this but there are plenty of question marks about him and 14/1 is a very poor price in, what is, a very competitive event. I can't see Spieth beating Dustin this week, lets put it that way.

Spieth's putting is like Kaymer's chipping yips, you don't see it as a weakness that often, but they are there and pop out every now and then.

Stenson and Mickelson are the two players I think everyone is excited to see. Can they carry their form from The Open forward? If either can then surely they are untouchable again here? Stenson I think was suited by the slow, flat greens at Troon. I don't think he will enjoy that luxury again here. Mickelson has not won for over two years. Sure, he got unlucky not to win The Open and he has had three 2nd place finishes and another three top 5s this year. He is statistically sound and playing great, but surely that Open has taken something out of him and he may well just run a little flat here. I expect him to play well, especially as he is the last winner here, but maybe just throw too many errors in to really contend. The crowd will be right behind him though.

So who are we backing? Well, as we can see, it is tight at the top and if all run to form it will be bunched. There are so many players playing well with huge ability. But none are really that much better than the others, like Tiger was, where if they play good they win. If they play to their best I think
Day wins from Dustin and Rory, but the only one playing his best is Dustin. He is the most likely. But, as I said, throw in the heat and the crowd and 8/1 is not for me.

I am going to back
Steve Stricker. He looks too big at 100/1. He played well at The Open, very steady and very few errors. Out of all of the Majors the USPGA has always been his best chance. There are only two par 5s on this course and one of them, 16 I think it is, is not reachable. In the last two Majors at Baltusrol there has been one eagle, a hole out from 80 yards from Kenny Perry on this hole. This kind of grabs the advantage from the bombers and will see the shorter hitters in with more of a chance.

I think we should take a chance with
Tyrell Hatton. 200/1 is a fair price about a player who has been on a great run and found comfort high up the board at The Open. He is full of belief and is a calmer animal this year. This is a different stage for him but he could surprise a few.

Charl Schwartzel seemed to like his new PXG equipment at The Open. Having more time to adjust to it and being in very solid form he can definitely contend. 66/1 is very fair.

I am tempted by
Tony Finau. I can't understand the price of 150/1. His Major record reads 2015 US Open 14th, 2015 USPGA 10th, 2016 US Open MC, 2016 Open 18th. He picked up his first win in his second year on Tour and we have all seen his tremendous ability. He just lacks a little consistency but one feels it is a matter of time until he wins something big. His short game puts me off a little for this.

Others at big prices to consider are
Lee Westwood 80/1, course will be perfect for him and he seems to be improving into some form. Robert Streb at 275/1, out of form but likes these types of courses. Justin Thomas also likes this sort of test and is worth a look at 100/1 but he doesn't seem like he is ever in full control. Zach Johnson is really finding his stride and playing nicely in big events and not always on courses that have suited him, Zach at 60/1 seems fair but is a very similar profile to Stricker who is a bigger price and has better form on this type of course. At 125/1 Andy Sullivan should have his supporters, he is playing some great golf and could easily have a big week. He has more experience than players like Hatton in the States but I think Hatton is may be the better player.

My longshot of the week is going to be
Bradley Dredge. He is 500/1 and has been sneakily good all year. He may see this as a big chance, like a David Lynn a few years ago (although Lynn did have a lot more US experience). I think he is a good all around player and can tip toe his way up the leaderboard this week.

Again, there is a sweep for this Major if you would like to play. £20 entry and we paid out £1500 for The Open Sweep with £1000 to first. Pick 6 players and low total score wins. More info at



The USPGA Championship - Outright

1.5 points each way Charl Schwartzel @ 66/1 (-3)
1 point each way Steve Stricker @ 100/1 (-2)
0.5 points each way Tyrrell Hatton @ 200/1 (-1)
0.5 points each way Bradley Dredge @ 500/1 (-1)

The USPGA Championship - 72 Hole Matches

1 point trebles and a 1 point accumulator (-5)

Marc Leishman @ 10/11 to beat Casey
Jason Dufner @ 10/11 to beat Lowry
Rory McIlroy @ 8/11 to beat Spieth
Steve Stricker @ 5/6 to beat Horschel

The USPGA Championship - Day 1 Threeballs

2 points Bill Haas @ 11/8 to beat Lovemark and Sullivan (-2)
2 points Bradley Dredge @ 11/8 to beat Kizzire and Brown (+2.75)
2 points Thomas Pieters @ 6/4 to beat Jaidee and Herman (+3)

USPGA Championship - Outright in Running
1 point each way Robert Streb @ 12/1 (1/4 odds 1-4) (-2)

This week's P&L = -10.25
This week’s investment = 20 points

This week's Outright P&L = -7
This weeks's Outright Investment = 7 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -3.25
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 13 points

2016 Total P&L = -55.14 points

2016 Total Investment =  1057.4 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  +11.05 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 239 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -66.19 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 818.4 points

2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.