UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 July 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Irish Open and The Greenbrier Classic

We were close to a bumper week last week. So close. Alex Noren did us proud in the Nordea Masters. He absolutely dominated throughout with perhaps the most impressive performance in Europe this year. He has a lot of ability and despite his win in Wales a few weeks ago I think this is the first time we really saw what he is capable of. Seung-Yul Noh came close to getting us a place bonus after starting the final day in 5th, hanging in there all day before finishing bogey, bogey, par to finish 6th. One shot out of the places. Instead of a 15 point profit we lost 3 points. It was a similar story with Bo Van Pelt in the States. He lead going into the final round. He was still leading well into the back nine and looking fairly comfortable. He played the last six holes in five over to finish 6th, one shot out of the places. So there was plenty of disappointment on Sunday, but Noren managed to make it a positive week. He won us 35 points and we lost 11 points elsewhere. Our 2011 running total rose to 146.05 points in front or a profit of £1460.50 to a £10 stake.

On to this week. Two decent events are being played, The Irish Open and The Greenbrier Classic. The Irish Open is played at Killarney Country Club, a 7150 yard par 71 that hosted the event last year. Scoring was low here last year with the eventual champion, Ross Fisher, shooting 61 on day 2. To go low you are going to have to drive it well on this tree lined course and obviously putt pretty good. Rory Mcilroy correctly heads the betting. He is starting this week at 11/2, the same price as he opened for The Open before drifting, so there may be a little value there as this field is no where near as strong. Apart from Rory there is no one that you could really make a decent argument for. Mcdowell is very hit and miss at the moment, Harrington went well here last year but has to chip and putt unbelievable these days to contend as his attempt to play the ‘power’ game have left him with some pretty embarrassing ball striking stats. For Paddy to be joint second favourite suggests to me the bookies are relying on some patriotic money to get him in the book. Fisher may not be a bad bet, last years winner shot -8 at Wisley and -7 at Wentorth this week and is making some positive noises in his press conferences but 20/1 seems to short with his recent form.

So apart from Mcilroy there are no solid bets. So lets look for some value. Stephen Gallacher has been playing some decent stuff and looks a decent price at 100/1. He is worth an interest. The Frenchman Gregory Bourdy is a class act and has a great conversion rate when in contention. The course should suit his solid all round game and is worth a play at 66/1. Finally a real gut shot. Seve Benson. You can back him at 400/1. He has not been in form but is a confidence player and if he can get on a roll early in the week he can get involved. He needs a big week and this looks like a decent opportunity.

State side it does not look easy either. Stuart Appleby shot 59 at The Old White TPC last year but there have been changes to the course since then. It is 200 yards longer, fairways tighter and the greens were reseeded with bent grass so the surfaces should be firmer. Still, the scoring should be going deep again. The weather forecast is perfect so ball strikers can be rewarded but good putters and birdie makers are the ones to go with.

Mickelson and Garcia head the market. 10/1 and 16/1 respectively. We backed Mickelson at 45/1 in The Open and obviously these are the conditions he thrives in but it is tough to see the 10/1 as value. His stats continue to improve week on week, his game does look like going in the right direction but his putting still looked shaky at Royal St. Georges and he will need to be at his best on the greens to win this. Same goes for Garcia. Yeah he has 11 top 25’s worldwide this year 3 tops 10’s in his last 3 events (including 2 Majors) but he does well in high scoring events. He may struggle to keep up with the scoring here despite every commentator in the world saying the claw has solved his putting problems. To me he still looks very suspect under pressure.

So who do I like. I like Webb Simpson. Last years runner up Jeff Overton has been backed into a shorter price than Simpson. That is funny. Sure Overton was unlucky last year to have someone shoot 59 to pip him but his best bit of form this year is 4th in the AT&T National four weeks ago and like I said, the course is very different this year. Compare that to Webb Simpson. He has finished top 20 in his last 5 starts including 2 Majors. He is more in form and frankly a better player. Webb Simpson’s all round game is so solid. 33rd in driving distance, 22nd in greens in regulation, 5th in birdie average, 6th in scoring average. He is a player. 25/1 is a good price.

I have said before that Chris Couch is a player to be with when the scoring goes low. 100/1 this week on a course that should suit. He is a bet.

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Irish Open

4pts win Rory Mcilroy @ 11/2
1pt each way Gregory Bourdy @ 66/1
1pt each way Stephen Gallacher @ 100/1
0.5 pts each way Seve Benson @ 400/1


The Greenbrier Classic

1.5 pts each way Webb Simpson @ 25/1
1pt each way Chris Couch @ 100/1

Special Bets

1pt win double Rory Micilroy and Phil Mickelson @ 70.5/1
1pt accumulator W. Simpson to bt C. Howell @ EVS, Woodland to bt Levin @ 10/11, Couch to bt Davis @ 10/11, De Jonge to bt Gay @ 10/11

2011 running total +146.05 pts This weeks investment 16 pts


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.




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