UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 January 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Commercial Bank Qatar Masters and Farmers Insurance

Qatar Masters
3 points Branden Grace @ 8/1 (+24 points)
1 point each way Benjamin Hebert @ 100/1 (-2 points)

Qatar Masters - Outright in running
1 point each way Bjorn Akesson @ 55/1 (1/4 1-4) (-2 points)
1 point each way Ricardo Gouveia @ 55/1 (1/4 1-4) (-2 points)

Qatar Masters - Round 3 Three Balls
2 points Branden Grace @ 23/20 to beat Rumford and Fleetwood (bet 365) (+2.3 points)

Qatar Masters - Round 3 Matches
2 points Johan Carlsson @ 10/11 to beat Tommy Fleetwood (bet 365) (-2 points)

Qatar Masters - Round 4, Three balls
2 points Rafael Cabrera Bello @ 7/5 to beat Lee Slattery and Tommy Fleetwood (+0.4 points)
2 points Branden Grace @ Evs to beat Olesen and Lawrie (+2 points)

Qatar Masters - Round 4 Matches
2 points Rafael Cabrera Bello @ 4/5 to beat Tommy Fleetwood (+1.6 points)

Famers Insurance - Outright
1.5 points each way Si Woo Kim @ 80/1 (-3 points)
1.25 point each way Smile Kaufman @ 100/1 (-2.5 points)
1 points each way Charles Howell III @ 50/1 (-2 points)
0.5 points each way Paul Dunne @ 200/1 (-1 point)

Farmers Insurance - Round 1 Three balls
2 points Francesco Molinari @ 11/8 to beat Jacobson and Blixt (-2 points)

Farmers Insurance - Round 2 Three Balls

0.4 point yankee and 0.6 point accumulater (-5 points)
Bill Haas @ 11/8 to beat Danny Lee and JJ Henry
Smylie Kaufman @ 11/8 to beat Grillo and Hadley
Paul Casey @ 11/10 to beat Stefani and Kim
Lucas Glover @ Evs to beat Owen and Stiles

Farmers Insurance - Day 3 Three Balls
2 points Martin Laird @ 13/8 to beat Brown and Horschel (-2 points)

Farmers Insurance - Day 3 Matches
2 points Si Woo Kim @ 11/10 to beat J.B. Holmes (-2 points)
2 points K.J. Choi @ Evs to beat Billy Horschel (+2 points)

Farmers Insurance - Day 4 Matches

2 points Aaron Baddeley @ Evs to beat Jason Kokrak (+2 points)

(I also like Patton Kizzire to beat Billy Horschel and K.J. Choi to beat Scott Brown but both are priced at 20/23 which is a little short.)

This week's P&L = +6.8 points
This week’s investment = 41.5 points

This week's Outright P&L = +13.5 points
This weeks's Outright Investment = 12.5 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -6.7 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 29 points

2016 Total P&L = -34.86 points
2016 Total Investment = 151.5 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L = -12.95 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 40.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L = -21.91 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 111 points

2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

Qatar Masters (Wednesday start 3.00am)

Very difficult to get past the first two in the betting in Qatar this week. This is the weakest field in the Desert Swing but Grace and Garcia certainly bring some class to the event. They have outstanding records here. Grace 6-13-1 and Garcia 9-5-2-1-46. The one thing that connects these two players is their liking for fast golf courses and where the wind blows. This is how this Doha Golf Club plays. Look at others that have gone well here. Scott, Bjorn, Els, Lawrie, Ilonen, Marc Warren etc. They are all links specialists.

Out of the two I like Grace the most. He finished 5th last week in Abu Dhabi (one of the many ties with our bet An), 4th in the SA Open, 4th in the Nedbank, 8th at the Dunhill Champs, 3rd in the Dubai World Champs, 22nd in the BMW Masters and 5th in the HSBC. He has been hugely consistent and keeps getting in the mix. This looks like a great opportunity for the defending champion to close one out again. 8/1 is fair.

Garcia has been solid too, but he has not played as much so is hard to judge and could be rusty. His last outing was in Thailand where he finished 4th, but it was a strong performance on the numbers. Jamie Donaldson who won there produced great numbers and Garcia's performance in Thailand would have won any other edition. More concerning is his conversion rate, he just finds winning hard these days and his finish at the BMW Masters when he really should have won was very tough to watch. Perhaps the break has done him good but he seems very risky for an 8/1 chance.

Outside of the front two I like Thomas Linard at 100/1. He played well in both his starts this year in SA. Still, they were a lot weaker than this but the course should set up well and he looks value at 100/1. It is hard to gauge from just two starts so maybe better off watched this week.

I am going to back Benjamin Hebert though. He is also 100/1 and finished 10th here last year. He missed the cut in 2012 on his only other start in Qatar. He has had a fairly sparse schedule but finished 18th in Turkey, 3rd in the Dunhill Links which provides a nice tick in the "links" box and finished 46th last week in Abu Dhabi. Last week he shot 71-72-70-71, solid if not a little unspectacular, but that may have helped to knock some of the rust off.

Qatar Masters

3 points Branden Grace @ 8/1
1 point each way Benjamin Hebert @ 100/1

Farmers Insurance

This is always an intriguing event. It is played over two courses, the North and the South at Torrey Pines. North and South share play over the first two rounds and just the South on the weekend. The North is the course that players need to go deep on then keep it together on the much longer and harder South. The last winner to not break 70 on the North and win was Tiger in 2006.

I know Day and Fowler are the most likely. Fowler won well last week and Day defends and is capable of dominating if back to last year's form. I am going to pass on both. Fowler as he has had the long travel back from the Middle East and has been poor here the last two years and Day as he looked out of sorts in Hawaii, although he started coming back to life a little over the weekend. It is hard to gauge where Day's game is after such a long break. I would favour Day out of the two. He has finished 9-2-1 here in his three starts, but he does have some questions to answer.

Phil Mickelson would be my top pick if his form from last week is genuine. He was impressive in his third place finish but Palm Springs offers a very lenient test and this is much harder. I am not convinced he wasn't flattered last week. He has had a longer break than most, has made swing changes and has only three missed cuts and a 51st since finishing 2nd here in 2011. It is also scary to think that Tiger has won more recently than him.

I think Paul Dunne could be worth a punt. He, again, is a player that we haven't really seen enough of to know how good he is. Obviously he showed a lot of ability at The Open but missed the cut at the Dunhill Links. He looked very classy and comfortable when finishing 9th at the Jo'burg Open. This is obviously a big ask but he has gained some valuable experience and may just shine in The States. Worth a small interest.

I think this week you have to favour the longer hitters. The North is such a long course and it can be cold and misty. I also think some advantage is taken away from the good putters as the greens tend to seed at this time of year and are often bumpy and inconsistent.

It may be surprising then that I am going to back Smylie Kaufman. When he finished 10-1 in his first two PGA Tour events he opened a few eyes. There was enormous focus and attention on his putting. Truth is his long game has been the key and his putting is open to the improvement. He has cooled down a little since but his 14th last week was a step back in the right direction. He is long and ranks 24th in strokes gained tee to green and 15th in the all around. 100/1 is a fair price.

I also like Si Woo Kim at the same price. I can't understand why his price is so big. He finished 4th in Hawaii and 9th last week. He finished in the top 20 in 3 of his previous 4 starts before that too. He ranks 25th in strokes gained tee to green, 10th in total driving and 7th in scoring. 80/1 looks a great price.

Charles Howell III hasn't missed a cut in 13 starts here and has finished in the top 20 in 6 of his last 7 starts. His win rate is obviously horrific for a player of his quality but this place owes him one. He is the 5th highest earner at Torrey Pines and the highest of the non winners. He finished 5th last year but the fear with CH3 is a place is the best you can hope for, but 25/2 about that isn't terrible value.

Famers Insurance - Outright

1.5 points each way Si Woo Kim @ 80/1
1.25 point each way Smile Kaufman @ 100/1
1 points each way Charles Howell III @ 50/1
0.5 points each way Paul Dunne @ 200/1

Farmers Insurance - Round 1 Threeballs

I like a few games in the first round. CH3 looks likely to beat a wild Charlie Beljan and a bearded but lacklustre Boo Weekely. I think Lucas Glover has to quality to beat Greg Owen and Darron Stiles. Haas looks like he only has one to beat in Danny Lee as JJ Henry is out of sorts. Casey looks to have picked up a weak draw against Stefani and Whee Kim. However with all of these odds on they may be worth wrapping up in a multiple of sorts but I am going to leave them alone.

I am going to have one bet in the first round and that will be Francesco Molinari to beat Freddie Jacobson and Jonas Blixt. Molinari is as solid as it gets tee to green where as Jacobson and Blixt are way below average. On dodgy greens it is well worth taking on the putters in this 3 ball and 11/8 is a very decent price.

2 points Francesco Molinari @ 11/8 to beat Jacobson and Blixt