UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 February 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Oman Open and Honda Classic

Honda Classic - In running after round 3

0.5 units Adam Schenk @ 35/1 (-0.5)

Honda Classic - In running after round 1

0.75 units Rickie Fowler @ 15/2 (-0.75)

Oman Open - In running after round 1

0.25 units Scott Vincent @ 35/1 (-0.25)

Oman Open

Well, let's be brief as there is value out there and as a result, a lot of selections this week. We have had 3 consecutive weeks of 2nd place finishes. I think we deserve to find a winner this week.

The Oman Open is played on a very well conditioned, open, desert links. At 7392 yards, wide targets, little rough and potential for strong winds bombers should go well.

Justin Harding seems well suited and at 33/1 should be supported. He has had a solid desert swing, is proven in the winds in Australia and Mauritius. 8-11-4-mc and is playing on debut in Oman, I would be 18/1. There are few top 100 players competing this week in Oman, he has been knocking at the door.

JB Hansen has not shown much in his recent events but does have a second here in 2015. I fancy he could get in the places in a much weaker line up then his last bits of form were up against.

Louis De Jager is a winning machine in his native South Africa. He doesn't travel well. He is, however, gaining more and more experience and at some point it is going to click. He is worth supporting here and the wind won't bother him one bit.

Long hitting rookie Spaniard Adri Arnaus looks good value in the top 20 market. He missed out on top 20 finishes in Dubai and Abu Dhabi by a shot, against much better players. He should really enjoy it here and 7/2 a top 20 is a confident selection.

Another Spaniard at a huge price in the top 20 market is David Borda. He is coming off two missed cuts but is long, can keep it low if it blows and a top 20 is certainly not beyond him. To keep his card he has to take advantage of weeks such as this. 25/1 is too big not to back.

Finally, Deyen Lawson has shown little outside of Australia but finished second in the Queensland PGA last week shooting 68-63-63-68. He is obviously in good form and worth chancing to have a good week here.

To Win

0.25 units Justin Harding @ 33/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.75 units Justin Harding @ 15/2 (-0.75)
0.5 units JB Hansen @ 25/1 (-0.5)
0.5 units Louis De Jager @ 45/1 (-0.5)

Top 10

1.25 units Justin Harding @ 7/2 (-1.25)
1 unit JB Hansen @ 12/1 (+12)
1 unit Louis De Jager @ 18/1 (-1)

Top 20

2.25 units Justin Harding @ 2/1 (-2.25)
1.5 units Adri Arnaus @ 7/2 (-1.5)
1.75 units JB Hansen @ 5/1 (+8.75)
2.5 units Louis De Jager @ 15/2 (-2.5)
1.5 units Deyen Lawson @ 9/1 (-1.5)
2.25 units David Borda @ 25/1 (-2.25)

72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

1.75 units Victor Perez to bt Romain Langasque @ 5/6 (-1.75)

Honda Classic

The Honda Classic offers a good, fair but tough test. This event has spued out winners that have gone on to become Major Champions. This is probably because it demands a solid all around game, an ability to shift strategies in varying conditions (especially wind) and demands the ability to hit daunting shots under pressure. The draw can be huge and being out early can often offer an opportunity to go low and make up a lot of ground. On Sunday, if one can do this and post a number, you would rather be in the clubhouse watching than trying to avoid the water on the par 3s. There are a few chances for catastrophes and this one is not over until it is over. In short, you want a classy player who has confidence in their ball striking ability.

Rickie Fowler won here in 2017. Last week's course really did not suit him. This does. His strong driving and putting will be rewarded and he goes well in Florida. I think 12/1 is big enough to back this week.

Another often underestimated ball striker is Webb Simpson. The reigning Players Champion likes Florida and finished 5th here last year. 25/1 is very fair, I would be 16/1.

Further down I like guys who are ball strikers and played a lot in the differing weathers of Europe. I like players like Grillo, who will like it more the tougher it gets. He came 8th here last year but has been a little out of form recently. Noren is another who has been a little off recently but finished 3rd here last year and loves tough tests like this. This isn't dissimilar to Bro Hof Slot where he has enjoyed great success. An is another solid ball striker. He finished 5th last year and lives in Florida. Frittelli, 11th last year, loves the wind. Lucas Bjerregaard has been a little out of form, but he enjoys the wind and is a ball striker who will slowly be getting used to playing more in The States. 7/1 a top 20 is very fair.

I also like Kevin Tway to make a return to the top of the leaderboard. He missed the cut here last year, but showed in Hawaii that he can handle the wind and displayed some great shotmaking capabilities. 5/1 a top 20 looks big.

Lots of bets, but lots of value. Let's hope we can get some in and amongst it.

To Win

0.75 units Rickie Fowler @ 12/1 (-0.75)
0.25 units Webb Simpson @ 25/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

1.75 units Rickie Fowler @ 5/2 (+4.38)
1.25 units Webb Simpson @ 6/1 (-1.25)

Top 10

2.25 units Rickie Fowler @ 11/8 (+3.09)
1.25 units Webb Simpson @ 2/1 (-1.25)
0.5 units Alex Noren @ 4/1 (-0.5)
0.75 units Byeong Hun An @ 5/1 (-0.75)

Top 20

2.25 units Webb Simpson @ 11/10 (-2.25)
1.5 units Emiliano Grillo @ 9/4 (-1.5)
1.25 units Alex Noren @ 2/1 (-1.25)
1.25 units Byeong Hun An @ 9/4 (-1.25)
0.75 units Dylan Frittelli @ 4/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Kevin Tway @ 5/1 (-0.75)
1 unit Lucas Bjerregaard @ 7/1 (+7)

72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

1.5 units Webb Simpson to beat Cameron Smith @ 4/5 (+1.2)

This week's P&L = +6.42
This week’s investment = 39.25 units

This week's Outright P&L = +8.47
This weeks's Outright Investment = 34.5 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -2.05
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 4.75 units

2019 Total P&L = +37.46 units

2019 Total Investment = 162.25 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +34.42 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 139 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +3.04 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 64.75 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.