UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 August 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Deutsche Bank Championship

The Deutsche Bank is an interesting event, not just because it is part of the FedEx Playoffs, but also because it is so rare for a quality field to line up on a low scoring golf course. Nearly all big events are played on hard courses set up as tough as possible. But 94 of the PGA Tour’s best will tee it up on Friday at TPC Boston and the shootout will be on.

Since 2006 scoring has averaged under par. Last year the par 71 gave up a stroke average of 69.207. Stenson won on 22 under (262) and led the green in regulation stat with a career best of 61 from 72, ranked 6th in scrambling (9/11), 10th in putting and made 25 birdies. The one stat that appeared to be fairly irrelevant was driving accuracy. But when you have to make a lot of birdies being able to attack pins with approach shots means it still has some relevance. We also know when scoring goes low scrambling becomes less relevant. A stat that stands out is proximity to the hole. Ian Poulter led the category at just 26 feet, 5 inches. That is a very low average and shows how many chances a player can create this week in Massachusetts.

So we want a birdie machine, someone who can hit a lot of greens, preferably an aggressive player who can get hot with the putter.

I like in order Adam Scott (12/1), Rory McIlroy (9/2), Matt Kuchar (20/1), Bubba Watson (50/1), Kevin Na (80/1), Keegan Bradley (40/1) and Graham DeLaet (66/1).

Scott is a great fit for this ranking 26th in greens, 15th in putting and 3rd in birdies. He also has form. He won here in 2003 and has 4 more top 10s including a 2nd in 2004. He also has nothing worse than two 15th place finishes in his last 7 starts worldwide. So he has course form and recent form and is statistically the best player in the world, why not back him? Well, his 1st and 2nd here came when it was a tough course. In 2006 it was the 2nd hardest par 71 on Tour. It became easier from 2006 onwards. His form is still ok since then, as is his recent form, but again you have to go back 14 weeks for his last win. I make him 16/1, you can back him at 12/1 and is therefore left alone, despite his sterling credentials.

Rory when he is on is unreal, when he is not firing though he has the big number in him, like we saw again last week. He has one gear and doesn’t posses the short game to save the bad days. We know if he fires he wins, like he did here in 2012 and at The Open, Bridgestone and USPGA. In fact, 4 wins in his last 9 are Tiger numbers. But Tiger was a more trustworthy 9/2 chance in his prime, he would always be there on Sunday with a chance. I don’t feel that with Rory yet. 7th in greens, 1st in birdies and scoring certainly makes him a worthy favourite, just not a 9/2 favourite.

I would love, love, love to back Kuchar this week. He remains the most consistent player around and last week’s 5th shows his back problems are probably behind him (excuse the pun!). He finished fourth here last year and it sets up beautifully for him. 14th in birdies, 8th in putting and 4th in scoring. You know Kuch will give you a run for your money and we very nearly backed him last week. He has 11 top 10s this season in 21 starts. Impressive numbers. The price is the problem. I make him 28/1 and 20/1 is best price. Big chance though.

Bubba Watson I am going to back. It is a bit of a strange approach as he has poor course form 12-mc-44-32-37-16-mc-67 and his recent form is not a lot better 3-mc-31-16-mc-37-65-30 but he makes a lot of birdies, ranking 10th on a tough schedule. He does better on easier courses when it doesn’t demand the focus and patience, like he showed at Phoenix earlier this year. 50/1 is a decent price about him this week. I would see him around 28/1 to 33/1.

Kevin Na played some very solid stuff last week when finishing 9th, just missing out on giving us a pay day. He is the opposite to Bubba, he likes a tough test. He is better at scrambling his way around. He ranks 20th in putting, 11th in scoring and 24th in birdies. It is not a great set up for him but I still think the price is too big at 80/1 (90/1 with BetVictor). He has had a solid year and his 9th last week is further encouragement. He only has one top 15 here in 7 starts but knows another good week will make him a very serious Ryder Cup wild card contender. Worth another go.

Keegan Bradley is from New England and can enjoy home comforts this week. Statistically he was making big jumps throughout the summer after a poor start to the year. This progression has slowed somewhat but it is still moving in the right direction. Everything is very solid but nothing is really firing as yet. He still ranks in the top 20 in the 3 big scoring stats. In 3 starts at TPC Boston he has posted a missed cut, a 13th and a 16th. Not amazing, but solid. He has had three top 4 finishes since the US Open and I fancy him getting involved this week. 40/1 is not huge, I would have him at 35/1 but I fancy him to keep progressing and get in the mix. He, like Na, has to make a positive move to get a Ryder Cup spot and when at his best can make birdies for fun.

Graham DeLaet is an interesting one. On his best form from last season and the start of this, 66/1 looks very big. He still has 4 top 15s in his last 8 stats but the rest has been poor. He finished 3rd here last year on top of a MC in 2012. He ranks 3rd in greens but I am not sure he is a good enough putter to keep up with the scoring and his overall stats have been regressing week on week. I would make him around 40/1 so there is a fair bit of value in the price and I think he is just about worth keeping on side for this week. He did after all, really enjoy the playoffs last year and will certainly be up for his return here.

One I didn’t mention in my shortlist but is worth keeping an eye on during the week is Jimmy Walker. He ranks 7th in putting, 10th in scoring and 2nd in birdies. I got him at 40/1 and you can back him at 55/1 but his course form is very poor. mc-mc-37-51-mc. We know he has really stepped up a class this year and if he looks like he is enjoying it more this time around he may be one to get on side with in running. He would be in for Bradley if he had not missed the cut last week.

Deutsche Bank Championship

1 point each way Bubba Watson @ 50/1
1 point each way Keegan Bradley @ 40/1
0.75 points each way Graham DeLaet @ 66/1
0.5 points each way Kevin Na @ 90/1

Italian Open

No bets

2014 running total =  -34.16 points. This week’s investment 6.5 points. This weeks P&L = -6.5 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.