UA-33754892-1 Archives for 23 September 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Ryder Cup Day 2 Foursomes

Poulter & Rose Vs Watson & Simpson.

Prediction - Two very strong pairings. Bubba and Webb were incredible in fourballs yesterday but that format suits better and these teams are tightly matched.

Westwood & Donald Vs Mickeslon & Bradley

Prediction - Surprised Westwood is back out. Lawrie looked best apart from Colsaerts yesterday afternoon. The hottest US pairing will win this if Westwood does not improve every aspect of his game. He is the weak link in the four. USA

Colsaerts & Garcia Vs Zach Johnson & Dufner.

Prediction - Another very close game in a close session. Tough to call as Colsaerts and Garcia have more weapons but Zach and Dufner are very solid. Another one to leave alone I think.

Mcdowell & Mcilroy Vs Furyk & Snedeker

Prediction - McDowell was not swinging well yesterday and struggled more and more as the day went on. He can reset quickly. If Europe play well they are tough to beat but 13/8 about two inform, incredibly solid US players is too big in my view.

Ryder Cup Day 2 Foursomes.

2 pts Furyk & Snedeker to beat Mcdowell & Mcilroy@ 13/8
2.5 pts Mickelson & Bradley to beat Westwood & Donald @ 6/5

Already Advised

Ryder Cup Day 1 Afternoon Fourballs

4 pts USA to win afternoon fourballs @ 5/4 (+5 pts)

3.5 pts Watson & Simpson @ 10/11 (+3.2 pts)

2 pts Dustin Johnson & Kuchar @ 11/10 (+2.2 pts)

2 pts Woods & Stricker @ 6/5 (-2)

Ryder Cup Day 1 Foursomes.


2 pts Zach Johnson & Dufner to beat Westwood & Francesco Molinari @ 5/4 (+2.5 pts)
3 pts Woods & Stricker to beat Poulter & Rose @ EVS (-3 pts)
1 pt double the above two @ 7/2 (-2 pts)

The Ryder Cup - Specials

0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17-11 @ 20/1
0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17.5-10.5 @ 28/1


2012 running total +162 points. This weeks investment 23 point.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf









Comments

Ryder Cup Day 1 Fourballs

Lawrie & Hanson Vs Watson & Simpson.

Prediction - Lawrie and Hanson are the 2nd best team here. USA

Mcilroy & McDowell Vs Mickeslon & Bradley

Prediction - Great game but the US have the edge here.

Rose & Kaymer Vs Dustin Johnson & Kuchar.

Prediction - Dustin and Kuchar can take advantage of an out of sorts Kaymer and Rose does not make enough birdies.

Westwood & Colsaerts Vs Woods & Stricker

Prediction - Westwood looked poor this morning. Colsaerts could be anything but I expect Woods to bounce back.

Ryder Cup Day 1 Afternoon Fourballs

4 pts USA to win afternoon fourballs @ 5/4 (+5 pts)

3.5 pts Watson & Simpson @ 10/11 (+3.2 pts)

2 pts Dustin Johnson & Kuchar @ 11/10 (+2.2 pts)

2 pts Woods & Stricker @ 6/5 (-2)



Already Advised

Ryder Cup Day 1 Foursomes.


2 pts Zach Johnson & Dufner to beat Westwood & Francesco Molinari @ 5/4 (+2.5 pts)
3 pts Woods & Stricker to beat Poulter & Rose @ EVS (-3 pts)
1 pt double the above two @ 7/2 (-2 pts)

The Ryder Cup - Specials

0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17-11 @ 20/1
0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17.5-10.5 @ 28/1



2012 running total +162 points. This weeks investment 18.5 point.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf









Comments

Ryder Cup Day 1 Foursomes

These opening games do not look easy to call. Foursomes is all about momentum and it is very difficult to predict momentum.

Mcilroy & McDowell Vs Furyk & Snedeker.
Rory and G-Mac look worthy favourites in the opener against Furyk and Snedeker. It is 10/11 the Europeans but their records are not great. Rory’s foursomes record shows 1 win, 1 loss and G-Mac 0 wins, 1 half, 1 loss. Furyk and Snedeker look a perfect foursomes fit. Furyk is 3 wins, 2 halves and 5 losses at foursomes and Snedeker debuts. The US team are both in form. G-Mac is the only player with question a mark about form but he has shown already this year how he steps it up for the big events.

Prediction - Europe may have the slightest edge but the US will be tough to beat. No bet.

Donald & Garcia Vs Mickelson & Bradley
Donald and Garcia are a formidable foursomes team. They will be full of confidence for this as neither have ever been beaten in this format. Donald with 6 wins, 0 halves and 0 losses, Garcia 8 wins, 1 half and 0 losses. They would be a strong bet for me if it were not for the fact that Garcia’s record was formed a few years ago. Mickelson has experience and Bradley loves a big occasion. Mickelson has been ‘grooming’ Bradley over the last few years for this moment. Mickelson is Bradley’s mentor.

Prediction - I like Europe but they are not a bet at 10/11.

Westwood & Molinari Vs Zach Johnson & Dufner.
I like the US for this. Molinari and Westwood should, as always, be immaculate from tee to green but both struggle with the putter. Zach and Dufner are solid all round players and are significantly better putters, especially Zach Johnson.

Prediction - The US pairing have perfect temperaments for foursomes and Westwood and Molinari look venerable if the US perform to a decent level. 5/4 is a good price.

Poulter & Rose Vs Woods & Stricker
Rose is 2 wins from 2 at foursomes and Poulter is 2 wins, 1 loss from 3. Poulter is Europe’s Ryder Cup stalwart by all accounts but he has had a very average year and although he will try and lift his game for this there is no guarantee. Woods and Stricker are a strong partnership and were paired up 4 times at the President Cup and won 4 times. They are the better players playing better.

Prediction - EVS is a good bet about the US, they will perform and Europe will need to step up compete in this.

Ryder Cup Day 1 Foursomes.

2 pts Zach Johnson & Dufner to beat Westwood & Francesco Molinari @ 5/4
3 pts Woods & Stricker to beat Poulter & Rose @ EVS
1 pt double the above two @ 7/2

Already Advised

The Ryder Cup - Specials

0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17-11 @ 20/1
0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17.5-10.5 @ 28/1



2012 running total +162 points. This weeks investment 7 point.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf









Comments

The Ryder Cup

This season’s familiar story line, Bo Van Pelt impressed before faltering and it happened again this week in the Tour Championship. He lost us another 4 points (thank God he is not playing this week!). Jason Dufner was quiet and another 4 points were gone, Keegan Bradley and John Huh may as well have been non runners and cost a further 4 points between them. The outrights cost us 12 points all in. We made a measly 0.75 points back on the match bets. We lost 11.25 points on the event setting us back to a 162 point profit for the year or £1620 to a £10 stake.

Big week this week, it’s Ryder Cup week. Great event to watch but perhaps not the best to bet on. I think everyone has a strong opinion about the outcome but often passion and loyalty can cloud an opinion. I like the USA pretty strongly.

Medinah in Chicago hosts the event and is the longest course to host a Ryder Cup. It measures 7658 yards from the tips. The greens are going to be very fast. The rough is going to be light. The weather is forecast to be perfect for golf all week. The Chicago fans are notoriously partizan and love sport. These factors lead to a huge home advantage. The American team in general are a more powerful team, less accurate perhaps but that won’t be a huge factor this week. Fast greens are found week in, week out on the PGA Tour and are a rare treat in Europe. Agreed, 7 of the European team are members of the PGA Tour but the Americans are the stronger putting team. Rose, Westwood and Molinari would be more than questionable and Hanson is streaky. Bubba Watson (Masters Champion) and on occasion Jason Dufner (ranked 64th in putting) would be classed as the weakest US putters. Home advantage is a huge factor. 6 of the last 7 Cups have been won by the home side. Chicago will be an intimidating arena for some of the less experienced Europeans.

I should not sound so dismissive of some players on show. The lowest ranked player is 36th in the world, they can all play! The most crucial factor for me is how the ‘lesser’ European players perform. Nicolas Colsaerts could be a hero for Europe. His game sets up well for this and he won the Volvo World Matchplay Championship in Spain in May. How will he respond to the pressure and more importantly the huge intimidation factor? Peter Hanson (1 win out of 3 at Celtic Manor) and Martin Kaymer have not been bang in form recently and Paul Lawrie’s year has revolved around getting his 2nd Ryder Cup experience 13 years after his first. He may be too up for this and I got a feeling he won’t perform well this week. On the other end the Euro ‘big guns’ need to be at their best. Westwood looked awful with the putter last week when finishing last and has been in and out of late. Two top 5’s in the Fedex Playoffs gives hope. Rose looked good last week but has been quiet since the start of the year, mainly due to a cold putter. Donald and Rory are Europe’s two best hopes, the two who could drive this team to success. It is a hometown event for Donald and Rory is very close to being the best player in the world right now. Donald (6 wins out of 6 in foursomes) with Garcia and Rory with McDowell look like likely, strong partnerships.

The US team is very strong throughout. The fact that Hunter Mahan is not in the team is testament to that. For 80 of the 82 weeks that the US Ryder Cup list was published he was in the team after winning twice at the start of the year, including the WGC Matchplay. He sits 6th on the Money List this week as well as on his sofa, at home! Mind you this was the same with Rose two years ago, a two time winner could not qualify or get picked because of the strength of the Euro team and they only just snuck a victory. It is hard to pick holes in a US team that has won 11 of the last 16 PGA Tour events between them including two Majors. They are the better team and have home advantage. 8/11 may not be a flashy price but is a fair price in my opinion.

So lets try and find some angles. Ladbrokes had a couple of value specials but unfortunately they have been snapped up. The US are notoriously strong in the singles and Ladbrokes bet EVS the US to win the singles session which was a cracking price, the 4/5 on offer now is still better than the 8/11 on the outright and this is where the US are strongest, so is the 4/5 is a play? Even if the US have a decent lead entering day 3 they will still have individual pride. Ladbrokes also offered 7/4 US -1 in the singles. It is now 6/4 and an ok price. The issue I have about entering the outright market and the singles session winner is you are taking odds on about a lot of variables, the biggest one is not seeing the draw. I am very tempted to take a bit of both but I would rather hold out and play some straight matches during the week at better prices without the variables. The price about the US winning the singles could even get bigger if we wait until Sunday.

The correct scores are a little bit of a lottery but I think the US to win 17-11 @ 20/1 and 17.5-10.5 @ 28/1 look worth a small play. Nothing really stands out in the player markets. As I said I think Donald and Mcilroy should have big weeks but a lot depends on pairings. I prefer the Garcia/Donald partnership over the McDowell/Mcilroy but there is no value here, especially as the top player markets nearly always end in ties. Same with the US. Stricker @ 8/1 will be paired with Woods, as will Furyk 12/1 but who really knows how the pairings will go so lets save the stakes for some matchbets when we have all the information in front of us.


The Ryder Cup - Specials

0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17-11 @ 20/1
0.5 points USA to win the Ryder Cup 17.5-10.5 @ 28/1



2012 running total +162 points. This weeks investment 1 point.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf







Comments

Tour Championship Round 4 18 Hole Matches

Tour Championship Round 4 18 Hole Matches

2.75 points Jason Dufner to bt Scott Piercy @ 8/11 (-2.75pts)

Already Recommended

Tour Championship Round 2 18 Hole Matches

5.5 points Bo Van Pelt to bt Scott Piercy @ 8/11 (+4pts)
3 points Rory to bt Mickelson @ 5/6 (+2.5pts)
2.5 points Westood to bt Els @ 4/5 (+2pts)


Tour Championship Round 1 Matches

2 pt double Kuchar @ 6/4 to bt Donald and Bradley @20/19 to bt Stricker (-2pts)

Tour Champonship 72 Hole Matchbet

3 pts Jason Dufner to beat Jim Furyk @ Evs (-3pts)

Outrights

2 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 33/1 (-4pts)
2 pts each way Jason Dufner @ 33/1 (-4pts)
1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 40/1 (-3pts)
0.5 pts each way John Huh @ 100/1 (-1pt)

2012 running total +173.23 points. This weeks investment 29.75 points. This weeks P & L = - 11.25 pts.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf


Comments