UA-33754892-1 Archives for 23 October 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Andalucia Masters, CIMB Asia Pacific Classic and the Shanghai Masters

I was gutted that as I posted the tips last week I received a message saying that Tom Lewis had the flu. He, as expected, withdrew from the tournament during the second round making him a losing bet. Hennie Otto had a solid week finishing 20th on -8. And Mr. Thomas Aiken shot a stunning final round of 63 to sneak a place.

In the States it was not pretty. Rose was shocking. Couch only slightly better and Nate Smith a missed cut. It has been a while since I had a full house of missed cuts in America! Ames missed his 7th cut in a row to cost us our 72 hole match bet treble. All in not a good week, but not a disaster.

Aiken made us 6 points cutting our losses to 5 points for the week. It meant we carry forward a yearly profit of +148.79 points or £1487.90 to a £10 stake.

This week there are three big events with quality fields. The Andalucia Masters played at Valderrama, the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic played in a toasty Malaysia and the Shanghai Masters played in..... well you may have guessed that one!

Lets look at Spain first. The weather looks good all week. As we all know Valderrama is a serious test. You need to be accurate, powerful, patient and smart. Experience of the course is also a key factor. The obvious favourite is Sergio Garcia. The Spanish 31 year old was back to his very best last week in the tournament he hosted. I was worried he may be rusty, 27 under and an 11 shot victory suggests my concerns were misplaced! This looks ideal for him. This course sets up perfectly. However he is only 13/2 and that does not make to much appeal, despite his record of 7th, 7th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd 4th, 10th. Perhaps he will find himself placed into a little multiple to boost the value!

So who appeals? Manassero looks to have a game that fits. Valderrama will reward his accuracy and he will thrive on the undulating greens. 33/1 looks like a fair price. Alex Noren shot three splendid rounds last week only tarnished by a third day 73. He practices at Valderrama a lot and loves it. 28/1 looks just a little short for the talented Swede. Fisher, Bjorn and McDowell also make appeal but are short enough prices. Manassero will do for me on the outrights.

Malaysia hosts an Asian Tour/US Tour co-sanctioned event this week. The weather is going to play its role here. 32-35 degrees is forecast with over 90% humidity. The US players dominate the betting but I think this is misleading. The Asians will relish the weather and course conditions. They will be used to the grasses and for them this is a huge week were as many of the Americans will be using this as a stop off, warm up event for next weeks HSBC Champions tournament.

Snedeker and defending champion Ben Crane share favouritism at 14/1. Crane I understand but Snedeker is underpriced. However, the American I like is Bo Van Pelt. His stats are very solid and if he putts ok can make the 28/1 look big. Looking at the Asian players I like three. Aphibarnrat has been a little out of form but this course sets up well for him and he did ok here last year. 100/1 is a nice price. Jbe Kruger is underrated once again. The small South African is enjoying a big season on the Asian Tour lying fifth in the order of merit despite missing many events because of European Tour commitments. He is a huge hitter and is more than capable of getting involved here at a big price. Take the 100/1. Siddikur Rahman, a short hitting, ultra consistent, Bangladeshi player sits fourth in the Asian OOM and looks a fair price at 80/1 despite the course not being ideal. Small each way interests on these three look advisable as the bookies seem to have totally underestimated the strength and home advantage of the Asian Tour.

Finally the Shanghai Masters. Big money has pulled together the strongest field of the week. The favourite is the globe trotting Rory Mcilroy. He has gone from his tour of China to Bermuda to Turkey to China in 10 days. He must be tired and sick of being away from home. At 9/2 he is a lay for me. Westwood looks dangerous at 11/2 and with form of 1st, 1st, 1st, in Asia he could be worth and interest at an inflated price, inflated as we are dismissing Mcilroy. The other player who grabs my attention is Seung-Yul Noh. I have been tipping him for a few years now. He is a huge, huge talent and it surely is a matter of time before he shows the world and not just Asia what he is capable of. His swing changes under Butch Harmon are completed and the results have started coming. He finished 6th behind Rickie Fowler two weeks ago and finished runner up to KJ Choi last week. KJ must have a chance this week but KJ at 11/1 or Noh at 20/1 is a no brainer for me. In fact 20/1 in a limited field like this represents fantastic value in my book.

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Shanghai Masters

2pts each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 20/1

CIMB Asia Pacific Classic

1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 28/1
0.5 pts each way Jbe Kruger @ 80/1
0.5 pts each way Siddikur Rahman @ 80/1
0.5 pts each way Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 100/1

Andalucia Masters

1.5 pts each way Matteo Manassero @ 33/1

Special Bets

0.5 pt each way trixie Lee Westwood @ 11/2, Sergio Garcia @ 13/2 and Bo Van Pelt @ 28/1

2011 running total +148.79 pts This weeks investment 17 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.