UA-33754892-1 Archives for 23 March 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Valero Texas Open

This week is the first time for a while where nothing really stands out.  There’s a few players I like, but for some the prices are not backable and for others, well, they appear over risky propositions as they may just be starting to go the wrong way.  Also, there is the potential for some strong winds to blow which brings in the luck of the draw etc.  I am tempted to sit out, instead we will just make some small plays again.

I like are Zach Johnson @ 20/1, but this course is huge at 7435 yards.  However, the reason to like him is because putting was the key stat to take out of last years Texas Open.  The winner, Martin Laird, ranked 2nd in strokes gained putting and the leader of the stat category, Billy Horschel, finished 3rd.  Billy Horschel also led that category in the event before, so he was carrying putting form with him where as Laird, who ranked 167th for the season in putting entering the week, found his touch here.  Incidentally, Graeme McDowell won the strokes gained stat last week but doesn’t play here this week.

Therefore Zach ought to have a chance as his putting is as good as anyones, but at 20/1 he is hard to back, especially when considering his current form and the fact he has only one missed cut in the form book for this event, and that was four years ago, and has not since been back since.

Next on my list is the big hitting Ryan Palmer @ 28/1.  He has two top 15’s in his last four starts here and lost in a playoff last time out at the Honda.  He has a decent chance but his price is too short for me to be a backer.

Will MacKenzie has been my most tipped player this year.  He got us an each way return at the Honda and I would like to back him here.  The hard thing with a player like MacKenzie is to try and work out when the ‘hot streak’ or 'over achieving' will stop, and he will revert to his mean.  We started backing him at some very flashy prices, around 125/1-175/1.  I rated him the same, if not a little better then and now he is a fraction of those prices.  Still he has confidence and belief now, he didn’t then.  He has drifted back out to 50/1 from an opening best of 40/1.  He wouldn’t be a bet at 40s but 50s he sneaks into the staking plan..... again.

Other players I like are Jimmy Walker, but he is only available at a stingy 20/1. Russell Knox at 66/1 but other courses may suit him a little better as he has finished 41st and 69th the last two years.  Brendan Steele who has exceptional course form of 1-4-46 and shown bits recently too.  However, people have cottoned on and is only available at a best of 33/1, which is not big enough.

I also think Kevin Na and Jason Kokrak should go well but at 50/1 and 33/1 respectively are dismissed.  I think Jason Bohn at 250/1 offers some big value but his recent form is mediocre and has only a missed cut to his name here.  He is better than a 250/1 chance in a line up like this, but, once again, there may be better weeks to be with him than this.

The only two players I haven’t mentioned from my top 11 are John Senden, who ranks 4th behind ZachRyan P and Will Mack and Brendon Todd, who ranks 8th out of the 11 named.  

Now, I appreciate the same names are appearing a lot in the staking plan but what is wrong with that?  If you believe a player is underrated and going off at the wrong price each week then why wouldn’t you back him?  But, let me try justify their positions in this week’s staking plan.  Todd’s form has been pretty dismal since finishing 6th in January.  He only has a 61st in one start here.  However, he ranks 11th in putting this season and if his ball striking stats return to where they were a couple of weeks ago then the 150/1 on offer will look big.  He could be on the start of a slide, but I think he is worth chancing at least one more time before he goes over the cliff!

Senden I am going to stick with, not only as he won nicely two weeks ago for us, but also because he is a good wind player.  He finished 23rd in his only start here and is a player who plays well in bursts.  His 52nd place finish last week was not pretty but it was steady.  He can go well here at 66/1.

Valero Texas Open

1 point each way Will MacKenzie @ 50/1 (+12.5 points)
0.75 point each way John Senden @ 66/1 (-1.5 points)
0.5 points each way Brendon Todd @ 150/1 (-1 point)

2014 running total =  +24.4 points. This week’s investment 4.5 points. This weeks P&L = + 10 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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