UA-33754892-1 Archives for 23 June 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Irish Open and AT&T National

Right, here we go. Back home and pretty much back to full health. Last week we showed a profit. It was close to a bumper week. We had a 500/1 chance in Brandon Stone who hung around all week. He was up as high as 2nd on day 3 before settling for a share of 10th. We had backed him for top 10 and top 20 so he returned us a nice profit. He looks like the real deal, a class act full of confidence. I used to play with his dad, Kevin, on the Sunshine Tour. He has a strong golfing family around him that will offer him great support and guidance and IMG have made a big deal of him, which also speaks volumes.

Stone made us 17.25 points with a share of 10th and a top 20 but losing the each way stake. We lost 6 points on Garcia and our Rose/Garcia double. Garcia fought back well after a slow opening day, Rose just ran out of steam. We made 11.25 points on the week leaving us at 109.25 points down for the year.

Just a quick mention back to the US Open. Rose won the tournament because he only left himself 3 putts on the final day between 5 and 10 feet. He missed them all. In the last round of a US Open you would expect to have more chances to miss than that, especially for a poor putter with a questionable stroke. Westwood has needed a Sunday like that for a long time. Rose holed a couple of bombs and hit it to the right spots most of the day. If he had a chance to miss more from a length which he is poor from I am not sure he would have won. Two for me to take out of the event were Jason Day and Billy Horschel. These two look fearless and comfortable under the gun. Dufner is another who looks destined for a Major win, once he solidifies his putting. I also thought Mahan looked very solid in the final group. He needs to be better at chipping and pitching from tight lies, then he will have he full package. I was surprised at Schwartzel on the last day, but am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt as a few missed putts which can ruin anyones head. The ones I would leave out on the big occasion are Donald, Stricker and maybe Mickelson. I think it is always worrying when a players strength turns to his weakness under pressure. Donald was duffing pitch shots and chips and missing short putts. He looked very uncomfortable. Stricker is at the age where he may be a little too desperate to win. Merion was his chance at a Major. Nothing will set up better for him again. Mickelson, well I thought he did well. He hit a lot of great putts and he hit them aggressively, like he wanted to win. Unbelievably it was two wedge shots that cost him a US Open. He just tried to do way too much with them. Especially on the par 3 13th. I have seen him hit pitching wedge from 170 yards when he tries to hook it, what’s he doing trying to hook one from 126? He had 5 wedges. Surely just a bad call when simplicity was needed. Anyway, it was a great tournament and the best ball striker on the planet right now won it. He had struggled to cross the line in lesser events this year so you have to give him a lot of credit for doing it on the biggest stage. His long game and clarity of thought were absolutely first class, but those long putts gave him the momentum and in the end were the difference.

So on to this week. At the AT&T at Congressional we have basically another US Open course and in Ireland we have the home guard returning home from the States to try and win their National Open. Two pretty decent events.

Lets go State side first. My top 10 chances, in order, are: Snedeker (20/1), Day (14/1), Horschel (22/1), Kirk (100/1), De Jonge (80/1), Walker (70/1), Henley (66/1), DeLaet (33/1), Scott (12/1) and Hoffman (50/1).

Congressional is a great golf course. It is tough but it sets up brilliantly to test every aspect of a players game. It is long at 7569 yards which places it as the 2nd longest on tour after Torrey Pines South. It is demanding to find fairways, only 57% found in 2012, and only 59% of greens were found in the same year. Add to this the players were only getting up and down 49% of the time and you can see why the scoring average last year was over 73 (+2.046 to par). Last year this event was storm effected and the weather looks a little dodgy this year too. There are storm fears once again and winds are forecast throughout. Should be a pretty brutal test.

The big disappointment of the week is that Woods and Rose have withdrawn taking a big chunk of the market with them. This means there is simply not that much value with players like Snedeker, Day, Horschel and Scott. Although you could make strong arguments for each of them, the prices are not good enough to make a play on. Snedeker is the only one that tempts but event there I would want at least 25/1 with his current, inconsistent form. DeLaet is another who has a line struck through because of his price. 33/1, really? In my book he should be at least 66/1 in this field. I know it sets up great for him. He is statistically the best ball striker on tour and had his best finish of the year last week (2nd in the Travellers) but I don’t think he looked great coming down the stretch and I would be happy to take him on at the price, despite thinking he should have a good week!

Hoffman is an interesting one. He is in great form and plays tough, tight tracks well. 50/1 is a pretty decent price but there are two reasons I am going to leave him out. Firstly, he has played a lot of weeks in a row and has been in the mix a lot. Last week he put together an incredible opening round of 61 but fizzled over the weekend. I think he has to be pretty tired and he may just fizzle the whole week here in what will be a real stamina and tough mental test. Also he ranks 147 in scrambling and that part of your game has to be on around here.

So lets go with Brendon De Jonge. His stats are great. The only question mark is over his putting. He is normally an easy course player, he loves it when the scoring goes deep but I think he can go well here. He ranks 17th over all in the keys stats and at 80/1 is a good price.

Chris Kirk also gets in the staking plan. He ranks number 1 in scrambling on tour and 11th in putting. This combo in the wind could be very handy. He is not the best ball striker or the most accurate but has a decent record on tough courses like Sawgrass. He ranks 20th in the key stats for this week and 100/1 looks like a backable price.

Jimmy Walker has length on his side this week but is not the most accurate. His stats apart from this lack of accuracy are good. The thing is everyone will be missing a lot of fairways this week which levels the playing field for him a little. I still think the advantage is for accuracy over power here but at 70/1 he is worth having on side.

The last pick is Russell Henley. We spoke a little about his US Open form a couple of weeks ago. He missed the cut this year in that but the two weeks before he finished 27th and 6th at The Memorial. This should set up well although he seems to putt his best on bermuda. He still ranks 9th in this stat. 66/1 seems fair.

In Ireland they return to Carton House which last hosted the Irish Open in 2005 and 2006. It is pretty tight from the tee and back then, when the UK weather was half decent, they got the greens pretty firm and from all accounts they have got it playing fairly fast again for this renewal. The rough is not as bad as it was when Dodd and Bjorn won in ’05 and ’06 respectively. One of the big keys will be avoiding the fairway bunkers. They are penal. The weather is forecast for showers Thursday and Friday and strong winds on the weekend.

It is hard to look past the top 4. The winner is most likely to come from these 4 but with the unpredictable weather and potential draw advantages they look worth taking on. Of the 4 Bjorn looks the best bet if you wanted to back one. He is playing unreal coming off a 4th and two 2nds and he won here in 2006 but I am not backing him at 16/1. Rory can win anywhere at anytime but it is impossible to predict when he is going to show up. Certainly need to see a lot more from him before considering single figure prices. Mcdowell flopped in the US Open but this should suit him well. I would make him favourite. Harrington is yo-yoing with the belly putter. I would not trust him with it in the wind. Fisher and Franny Molinari are worth considering. Both have strong records in the event and Fisher has a nice run of results when returning to Europe but neither scream out to be backed.

I think it is worth going with Brandon Stone again. There is no 500/1 available this week! He is 140/1 with Stan James and 125/1 elsewhere. But you have a seriously talented player here who is rolling hot. He is full of confidence and knows he only has 6 more events to wrap up his card without having to go to tour school. He is only 20 but he knows how to win, as he did 3 times in 15 starts at college in the States last year. (He won the Big 12 and was Big 12 newcomer of the year.) He has won a lot in SA too. I think 140/1 is a backable price. The guys who have watched him on tour have been seriously impressed and he has been described as “the real deal”. Having seen his trackman numbers, one has to believe there is a lot more to come from him.

Elsewhere I am going to stick with bigger prices. I like the look of Gregory Havret to have a big week. There is nothing too exciting in the numbers. A few top 20’s this season, not a great record in the event but he plays well in the UK and on courses like Carton House. He finished 15th here in 2006 and is worth an interest at 100/1.

I am also going to go with Edfors at 225/1. He again has done nothing special this year, in fact one would say his form is poor but, like Havret, he does well in the UK and has a good record in this event. He finished 13th, 3rd and 14th from ’08-’10. I think he is a big price and is a streaky type of player that when he gets the taste can go a long way on momentum. Lets hope he gets going this week!

I am going to put Nicholas Fasth too. Again, nothing fancy this year apart from when returning to the UK. He finished 12th in the PGA at Wentworth and qualified for The Open at Sunningdale on Monday shooting 68-69. Remember when Jamie Donaldson qualified for The Open last year? He came to Ireland and won. It boosts players. Now I agree, Fasth needs a lot of boosting but he is worth chancing at 225/1 (250/1 with Stan James). I practice with him quite a lot at Wentworth (he is also a member at The Wisley but Wentworth is closer to his home in Ascot) and I don’t know how he ever played a Ryder Cup. Physically he looks so average but he is a tough Swede mentally.

The last pick this week is Alvaro Quiros. He has not played here since finishing 8th in ’08 but we all know how talented this long hitting Spaniard is. He was reaching superstar status a couple of years ago before being struck down by a lingering wrist injury. Two years ago you would never have seen a price like 100/1 about him in a line up like this and yes, he was a better, more consistent player back then. But he is another who qualified for The Open on Monday. 70 and a 66 saw him through. He can build on this and put a good account in this week.

A note to take forward. Brooks Koepka won the qualifying at Sunningdale. This guy is seriously impressive. He has it all including a champions attitude. He can go right to the top and 150/1 may seem a skinny price about a Challenge Tour player in a Major but I am going to have a small ante post play on him. He has won four times on the Challenge Tour in all different conditions on completely different courses, including in Scotland last week, where he posted a third round 62, his 12th sub 67 round of the year! I am also going to add Sergio Garcia to The Open plot at 33/1. He has gone close at The Open before, it looks the most likely Major for him to win and now ranked 2nd on the PGA Tour in putting it looks like his time has come. He finished 8th at Muirfield in 2002.

Irish Open

1 pt each way Brandon Stone @ 140/1 (-2pts)
0.75 pts each way Alvaro Quiros @ 100/1 (+7.8 pts)
0.25 pts each way Nicholas Fasth @ 250/1 (-0.5pts)
0.5 pts each way Gregory Havret @ 100/1 (-1pt)
0.5 pts each way Johan Edfors @ 225/1 (-1pt)

AT&T National

1 pt each way Brendon De Jonge @ 80/1 (-2pts)
1 pt each way Chris Kirk @ 100/1 (-2pts)
0.75 pts each way Russell Henley @ 66/1 (-1.5pts)
0.75 pts each way Jimmy Walker @ 70/1 (-1.5pts)

Antepost - The Open

0.75 pts each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1
1.5 pts each way Sergio Garcia @ 33/1

2013 running total = -109.25 pts. This week’s investment 17.5 points. This weeks P&L = -3.7 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.