UA-33754892-1 Archives for 21 October 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Masters and CIMB Classic

Last week worked out well for a couple of weak events. Bo Van Pelt finally got off the mark for the year with a win in Perth. He was chased home by Jason Dufner, in an event the pair dominated. As always there was a good case for backing BVP but, despite the ribbing I have received since his win, I think it was the right decision not to back him in a single. It was a weak field but all you need is one player to get hot for the week and you have backed a loser at a very short price. He also had to beat the ever impressive Dufner. What a long game that man has. De Jonge stormed home in the States with a closing 65 to make up the each way doubles. Unfortunately he tied with two others for 4th so for those betting with bookies that only pay 5 places the returns will have been diluted. I took 6 places but for the purposes of our betting record I will settle them as 5 places. This means we made 6.65 points on the De Jonge and Dufner double and 7.805 pts on the BVP and De Jonge double. +14.46 points on the week, +196.61 points ahead for the year.

Ok, this week and there are a lot of good players out and about. The problem is these good players are playing in events with little depth and there is not much value flying about. Let’s look at the BMW Masters in Shanghai first. Lake Malaren is 7600 yards long so expect the long hitters to once again enjoy their Chinese visit. They don’t seem to have built many short, tight courses out there!
Rory is the favourite at 5/1 and this should suit, but that price is short enough. 10/1 Rose, 11/1 Westwood, 10/1 Donald and 22/1 Colsaerts are others to consider but the only player who represents any sort of value here and has a good chance of winning is Louis Oosthuizen. He has a decent record in Asia and is playing as well or better than all the guys half his price. 20/1 looks fair.

Colsaerts should have a good chance and obviously
Grace at 28/1 is no stranger to winning this year but they are only a touch bigger than Louis and I rate Louis’ chances much higher. He is worth a go at 20/1.

In Malaysia there is huge money on offer for the 40 players who qualified for this Asian Tour/PGA Tour co-sanctioned event. The scoring went deep last year when our old pal BVP won on 23 under. (Yes, I did tip him then!) The course has taken some rain this week and is set to take some more during the event. It should be pretty easy again. The tough thing in this event is the Americans play for big money every week but, for the Asians, they will be terrified and just trying to fill their boots as much as possible. I tried to nick a bit of value out of the Asians last year and failed. They can finish last here and get $50k and last next week and pick up another $32k. This is why the betting accurately suggests US superiority. Like the Ryder Cup!

Out of the Asians I like
Siddikur at 125/1. But I can’t really see him beating four Americans to sneak a place. Aphribarnrat did not qualify this year, which is a shame as he is one of the few Asians who has the ability to upset the American invasion. Noh should put in a good run in and has a superb record not just in Asia, but in Malaysia too. Still, 25/1 is a poor price.

The winner should come from
BVP, Dufner or Woods. I fancy BVP fractionally from Dufner as BVP is a better putter and will find it easier to go low, and then Woods. But there is zero value in the front three. So where is the value? Well, Garrigus ranks 11th in birdies on the US Tour and the big hitter could eat this place up. He is also playing some good stuff recently. He seems an ok price at 33/1. Crane has a good record here, having won in 2010, and played well last week despite his recent back problems. I think he should be bigger than 30/1 though. Carl Petterson can make birdies for fun when he has the putter going but has no real record on the road. Overton should appreciate this test but the 28/1 on offer offers little. I like Senden, De Jonge, Piercy and Huh. Senden at 33/1 is decent value and there is no doubt he will hit it well enough to win. The question is can he hole enough to get better than -20 and I don’t think at 33/1 he is value to do that. Brendon De Jonge is playing well, he is an accuracy player and is streaky with the putter. He had it going last week and if he continues holing his fair share he can go well at 30/1. He is averaging 66.125 for his last 8 rounds. I also like John Huh. The 22 year old rookie has 12 top 20’s this year and looks a fair price at 40/1. He does not have big weapons but is solid throughout. Scott Piercy does have big weapons and looks fairly priced at 40/1. He is 12th in birdies and shot a closing 8 birdie 64 last time out at the Shriners. He is a big hitter and will appreciate the leniency off the tee. Piercy fits the profile of recent winners.

BMW Masters

2.5 pts each way Louis Oosthuizen @ 20/1

CIMB Classic

1.5 pt each way Brendon De Jonge @ 30/1
1 pt each way Scott Piercy @ 40/1
1 pt each way John Huh @ 40/1

Special

1.5 pts Sidduker to be top Asian @ 9/1 CIMB Classic

2012 running total +196.61 points. This weeks investment 13.5 points. This weeks P&L = -7.25 pts

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments