UA-33754892-1 Archives for 21 May 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Dean & Deluca, PGA Championship, Czech Champs, Open Golf Clement Ader Paris.

Dean and Deluca Invitational

At Colonial we traditionally look to experience. Not just experience of the course, which is important, but also general tournament experience. Winners often have already strong Colonial form and many win here in their late 30s and early 40s.

Spieth threw all that up in the air last year but I think the theme should remain the same.

Garcia has won here before, is 37 and has 8 previous starts. He is also in good form. But he hasn't played here since 2015. I am ok not backing him at 16/1.

Two that really fit the profile here are Zach Johnson and Pat Perez. I would like to be with Pat Perez at 40/1. 41 years old, his twelfth appearance and perhaps he would be the most deserving winner. He has four top 10s here including a 5th last time he played in 2015. He sits 5th in the FedEx rankings with a 1-2-3-4 among 9 top 20s. Zach is also 41 and also has 12 starts here. He is the all time Colonial winner with zero missed cuts and two wins. But he is having a very mixed 2017.

I am going to back a player with a similar feel to both of these, a player who is 37, one of the best ball strikers on Tour and in good form. Lucas Glover is coming off a 6th at The Players and although he has not gone well here in the past he is a better putter now. He has 6 missed cuts in 12 starts and nothing better than a 15th in 2008. Kenny Perry, a ball striking machine who hit a big draw and was hot and cold with the putter won this twice later in his career. Glover is a similar player. He is worth backing at 80/1.

Away from the profiles, lets also back Kyle Stanley at 55/1. Winners here are generally good, solid ball strikers. He has long in there too which doesn't hurt and importantly he tends to play well in streaks. Like Glover, tee to green Stanley is right at the top of the tree and if either of them hole a few putts they won't be far away. Also, unfortunately like Glover, Stanley has missed 50% of his cuts here (3/6) but he comes in off a 4th in The Players. The only real difference between Glover and Stanley is one hits a big fade, the other a big draw.

We can find one for the value a little lower down. A guy who flew out to the States with the owner of Dean & Deluca and his personal invite, Jazz Janewattananond. On his PGA debut we should probably not expect too much but he can play. He has finished 1-mc-34-24-7-6 in his last 6 starts. The win was in Bangladesh. We can have a small punt on him at 400/1 but also 16/1 about a top 20 is fair about an in form player.


Outrights

1.25 points each way Lucas Glover @ 80/1 (-2.5)
1.82 points each way Kyle Stanley @ 55/1 (-3.64)
0.25 points each way Jazz Janewattananond @ 400/1 (-0.5)

Specials

1.5 points Jazz Janewattananond @ 16/1 (-1.5)

72 Hole Matches

8 points Sung-Hoon Kang to bt Danny Lee @ Evs (-8)
5 points Garcia to bt Spieth @ 21/20 (-5)


BMW PGA Championship

New course again this year at Wentworth. Reverting from the awful Ernie Els redesign(s) to the original course, and then some! It looks good. It is much fairer and dare I say it, easier. The hope to protect the course this week is rock hard greens and fairly lush rough. The rough can work both ways, it makes the course wider and takes the trees out of play. Spectators will also trample it so I would argue no rough would make the course harder. The green firms will be the main factor. They have hot weather in preparation for it and subair systems under every green. However storms are forecast for the weekend. I am predicting so so scoring on Thursday and Friday and then the players to go lights out on the weekend. As a result perhaps Saturday morning is the time to be betting and not pre event. I would not be surprised to see the winning score in good weather go deeper than -20.

I had three players in mind for this leading up to the event but can't believe how bad their prices are. I want a player who finds fairways and greens and will set up as many chances as possible to keep up with scoring. It is not like the 'Els' course where all players would miss greens and it became a scramble competition to avoid bogies, one that poor strikers like Donald would enjoy. This is now a ball strikers paradise once again. I wanted to back Wiesberger, Molinari and Aiken. Three guys who will be looking at birdie putts all day. However, quotes of 22/1, 18/1 and 80/1 respectively has made me put my wallet away rather quickly. I wish Rory hadn't withdrawn!

So I have to make value plays instead. Matt Wallace represents value at 150/1 to win and 8/1 to top 20. He won 6 times on the Alps Tour last season and already has a 2nd on the Challenge Tour and a win in the weird European/Challenge Tour event in Portugal. Anyway, he is bang in form and appears fearless. It is a big ask however in the biggest event he has ever played. I may regret it but I will pass this time.

Damien McGrane looks too big at 400/1 and 16/1 for a top 20 too, but he has not played anything big for over a year so it is unclear quite how good he still is.

My 3 bets are going to be Alexander Levy, Dylan Frittelli and David Lipsky.

Levy will love the opportunity to go out there and have a go at the golf course. He is long enough to handle the firm greens. His form at Wentworth reads 12th in 2014 and 51st in 2015. He is underrated here, he is a very good player. He won the European Open last September, was 4th in The Maybank in February, in April he was 8th in the Shenzhen International and won the China Open, which was his last start. To be able to back him at 55/1 is a gift. One that makes me happy my first three picks were awful prices, otherwise I might not have found him.

Finishing 2nd to Levy in the China Open was Dylan Frittelli. The young South African impressed the week previous finishing 5th in the Shenzhen. The Challenge Tour graduate was the winner of the prestigious Rolex Trophy last year and will come in here with a lot of confidence. 80/1 is a nice price.

David Lipsky is another to take out of the same events. 5th in Shenzhen, 24th in China Open and 20th in the Thailand Open last week where he closed 67-66-65. He also boasts a 2nd in the Maybank in February. He is another player who has no fear of going low, which is what he will probably have to do to contend this week. In two Wentworth starts he has finished 55th and 35th and his 2nd round 66 on debut is the number that really stands out. He has a great short game and can get involved here.

Outright

1.25 points each way David Lipsky @ 80/1 (-2.5)
1.25 points each way Dylan Frittelli @ 80/1 (-2.5)
4 points each way Alexander Levy 50/1 (-8)

72 Hole Matches

5 points Uihlein to beat Olesen @ 5/6 (+4.17)
5 points Poulter to beat Lowry @ Evs (-5)



Czech Challenge - Outright

0.07 points each way Ales Korinek @ 1500/1 (-0.14)
0.2 points each way Florian Praegant @ 500/1 (-0.4)
0.1 points each way Ondrej Lieser @ 1000/1 (-0.2)



Open Golf Clement Ader Paris - Outright

0.63 points each way Thomas Grava @ 80/1 (-1.26)




(Already Advised)

Antepost 2017 Season
4 points Rory McIlroy to win a Major in 2017 @ 2/1 (Bet Victor)



This week's P&L =
-35.5
This week’s investment = 4.64 points

This week's Outright P&L = -
21.64
This weeks's Outright Investment = 21.64 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -13.86
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 23 points



2017 Total P&L = +4.41
2017 Total Investment =  865.3 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  -86.62
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 416.04 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  +91.03
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 556.4 points


2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +469.87 points

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jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.










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