UA-33754892-1 Archives for 21 June 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW International Open and Travelers Championship

After all the excitement of last week it is very difficult to be overly enthusiastic about this week's tournaments. It's not because there is anything wrong with the events. In fact they are quite good, they just come at a difficult time in the schedule. In Germany it is the BMW International Open and in Connecticut it is the incredibly well attended Travelers Championship.

The one thing that stands out is the amount of players, playing on both sides of the Atlantic, who played it last week at the US Open. That experience must have been mentally draining, no matter how close to the lead the player was on Sunday. That course would drain any player both physically and mentally. It is hard to know if these players will maintain their level of performance to start and also, if they do, whether they can keep it up the whole week.

All in, on both sides, there is very little I am interested in. I think both favourites are very worthy of their places at the top of their respective markets. Bubba has a great record at the TPC River Highlands, 5 top 15s since 2008, a win in 2010, 1-38-2-4-31 over the last 5 years and a scoring average of 67.21. Stenson has 3 top 10s in 5 starts in Munich. If last week hasn't taken too much out of them then you could do worse than have a little each way double on the two. The only reservation being that neither of their recent form has been stunning.

Outside of that it is very difficult to make a decent argument for anyone. In Germany good drivers of the ball have tended to do well. Players like Fisher, Stenson and Kaymer boasting notable form. I like Lowry, Bello, Fleetwood, Kjelsden, Bjorn, Kieffer (who really drives it well) and at bigger prices Fichardt and Dredge. But really it is very difficult to have real confidence in any of them for various reasons. My only bet this week in Germany is Ben Evans to finish top 20 at 12/1. He is as big as 400/1 in the outright market but that looks a big ask for a rookie who hasn't contended this season and hasn't found winning easy on lower level tours. He does, however, drive the ball better than anyone else in Europe and had a couple of top 15s back in May. I think he can have a good week here.

The Travelers has a reputation for producing first time winners. Bubba and Mahan are amongst those who recorded their first PGA tour win here. It's a course that gives up a lot of low scores so there is a big emphasis on par 4 scoring and greens in regulation. The course itself is pretty short and there will be very little wind around all week. Temperatures are perfect for golf so expect some low rounds.

The guys at the top of my list, very much like in the BMW International, are easy to make arguments against. Na statistically and form wise looks about he best alternative to Bubba but as we have discussed before, he is very difficult to win with and his putting is more than suspect. A course under 7000 yards like this should suit too. 40/1 is a fair price but not for me.

Patrick Reed I am sure will put in another performance at 18/1. He knows how to make a lot of birdies, which is needed this week, but he could be very tired from last week.

Snedeker has really found some form over the last few weeks and again does well on the shorter courses. His putter will see him keep up with the scoring but 16/1 looks too short.

Harris English I fancy to go well but he is error prone at the moment and there is no guarantee his putting will allow him to keep up, although he will create more chances than most. 40/1 is the right price.

Justin Thomas loves a shoot out and is capable of making low numbers look so easy, he has one start here in 2013 when he finished 30th. He has been quiet the last month but I quite like him at 40/1 and he is worth a small interest.

Garcia seems fairly easy to oppose at 18/1. To see him rank 124th in scrambling when his long game is far from its best is fairly disconcerting. He also doesn't look anywhere near as good with the putter as he did last season.

A player that does look like a little bit of value and seems to have found a decent opportunity to try and secure a full time status on Tour is Will Wilcox. His stats are very tidy and he finished 12th last time out in Memphis. He has four top 25s in his last five starts on the PGA Tour and the Web.com Tour. 80/1 definitely looks worth a small bet.


BMW International Open


1 point Ben Evans to finish in the Top 20 @ 12/1 (-1 pt)

Travelers Championship

1 point each way Justin Thomas @ 40/1 (-2 pts)

0.75 points each way Will Wilcox @ 80/1 (-1.5 pts)

Specials

0.5 point each way double Henrik Stenson @ 15/2 and Bubba Watson @ 14/1 (+5.47)



2015 running total =  -74.11 points. This week’s investment 5.5 points. This weeks P&L = +0.97 points

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015


1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

The Open
1.5 points each way Bubba Watson @ 40/1


2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

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