UA-33754892-1 Archives for 21 August 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Johnnie Walker Championship and The Barclays

Webb Simpson won last week. I have tipped him many times this year and he has rewarded us a few times with places. The best result he gave us was losing to Gary Woodland in a playoff when we backed Woodland. Was I gutted not to have backed him last week? Of course, but it was the correct decision. He missed the cut in the USPGA and 20/1 was too skinny. He was due a win and we were unlucky it did not come earlier when he has been close at much bigger prices.

Anyway, Vijay Singh, my gut shot pick last week, got in the places. If he had not shared fourth with four others the return of 31.25/1 would have been better than backing the winner! That’s why I like trying to find the value! However, he did share it so it only paid 11.9/1. He gave us a 5.95 point win meaning we lost 7.05 points this week. Elsewhere Toms finished a respectable 17th. Disappointingly Jimenez, Hansen and Couch all missed the cut. Our 2011 total is now +165.16 points or £1651.60 to a £10 stake.

The Johnnie Walker this week is played on the Centenary Course at Gleneagles. Long straight hitting will be rewarded and I immediately think of Ross Fisher. Looking through the field there is not much to oppose him with either. The last three weeks the European Tour have not been able to fill the fields in their events. It looks like they have this week but it is still lacking real quality.

Fisher has been showing glimpses of form. He played well in parts at the USPGA and in Ireland. He as some new irons in the bag this week and I think he should go well. 20/1 is tight enough but I think he is worth an interest. He is certainly the most backable of the shorter prices.

There is some value in the field this week though and I am going to have a small play on a few outsiders. Jbe Kruger and Steve Webster both could have good weeks at 100/1. Kruger is long and was in prolific form at the start of the season. The course suits and if the weather stays good he could be in with a shout. Webby has been seeing Jamie Spence for short game advice. Jamie’s short game was awesome and this has been Webster’s Achilles heal. If he has a new found confidence in this part of his game he will be very motivated and can make the 100/1 look big. Jeev Milkha Singh is in the same boat but looks correctly priced at 45/1 after a good showing in Ireland a few weeks ago. Hennie Otto has been playing sneakily well recently and when he is in the mood he is as good as anyone. 150/1 looks too big but it is hard to trust such a loose cannon.

Gregory Havret is worth an interest this week. He has a good record at Gleneagles and an unbelievable record in Scotland. 60/1 is not big but worth a play.

The other side of the Atlantic is the Barclays. The first of the FedEx Playoff events. The course is short at 6964 yards. There has been a lot of rain in the last week but the course supposedly drains well. The ‘upturned saucer’ greens will drain well. So the course should not play significantly longer but the rough may be more penal. This may change as more bad weather is expected on the weekend.

Accurate hitters who control their distances well and can cope with poor weather is what we are looking for. Simpson has to be considered. His stats last week were very impressive. His whole game is in great shape and he has now shaken the monkey off his back. Often when players who contend for ages get over the line they either get the taste for it or disappear. I think Simpson is a class act and will only keep getting better. He also thrives on Donald Ross golf courses. 30/1 is a tempting price. Not big but about right.

Other guys I like are Watney, Kuchar, Toms, Stricker, Mahan, Couch, Zach Johnson and Scott.

Scott is in great form. Ever since the Masters he has been good but since his win in the WGC at Firestone he seems to have stepped up again. 13th in total driving makes him look like a serious runner but I can’t back someone at 14/1 who is 137th in putting. Watney (25/1) is another pass this week. Great player, in decent form but the course is not ideal and there appears to be better options/value elsewhere. One of those options is Zach Johnson. This course looks built for him. 10th in driving accuracy and 8th in putting is a dangerous combination. 14th in scoring average proves that. 40/1 looks a fair price for a player with four top six’s in his last ten events.

It is hard to ignore Steve Sticker. He is leading the putting, scrambling, birdie and scoring averages! He plays great in September and the course looks right for him. He is the most likely winner in my view but 16/1 is just too tight for me. If he was 20/1 or bigger I may have made a play but like Simpson last week, it is only the price putting me off.

As you may have gathered I think Chris Couch is an underachiever. He is a great player and offers great value week in week out. He is 200/1 this week. It is not a great course for him but at this price in a limited field I will continue to show my faith in him..... despite a missed cut last week.

Toms is 33/1 this week. He has had a busy but successful last few weeks after his return from injury. The price looks good, the course looks good for him but perhaps this is one week too far. Mahan looks a big price at 50/1. Tempting but he really has not shown enough in recent weeks. My last pick is going to be Matt Kuchar. He as been a little quite of late with two T19’s in his last two starts ( WGC and USPGA) but this looks right for him. I fancy his controlled game and ability to score will put him in contention this Sunday at 28/1.

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Johnnie Walker Championship

2 pts win Ross Fisher @ 20/1
1pt each way Gregory Havret @ 60/1
0.5 pts each way Steve Webster @ 100/1
0.5 pts each way Jbe Kruger @ 100/1


The Barclays

1.5 pts each way Webb Simpson @ 33/1
0.5 pts each way Chris Couch @ 200/1
1 pt each way Matt Kuchar @ 28/1
1.5 pts each way Zach Johnson @ 40/1

Special Bets

1pt accumulator Stricker Evs to beat Donald, Toms 10/11 to beat Fowler, Z Johnson 10/11 to beat Furyk, B Haas 10/11 to bt Jacobson. 72 hole matches.


2011 running total +165.16 pts This weeks investment 16 pts


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.



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